ESPN FPI rankings projects Eagles’ chances of making the playoffs

The ESPN analytics team recently revealed their “Football Power Index” rankings for the 2017 NFL season. You can read more about FPI by clicking the preceding link, but in simple terms it’s a simulated projection model. Let’s take a look how FPI projects the Eagles to fare this year and compare it to the rest of the NFC East.

FPI Ranking

Cowboys - 6th
Giants - 11th
Eagles - 15th
Washington - 22nd

Win projection totals

Cowboys - 9.4
Giants - 8.2
Eagles - 8.0
Washington - 7.3

Chances of winning the NFC East

Cowboys - 46.4%
Giants - 22.6%
Eagles - 19.3%
Washington - 11.7%

Chances of making the 2018 NFL Playoffs

Cowboys - 63.2%
Giants - 38.4%
Eagles - 34.2%
Washington - 23.0%

Chances of reaching and then winning Super Bowl LII

Cowboys - 13.5% and 5.7%
Giants - 4.9% and 1.7%
Eagles - 3.5% and 1.0%
Washington - 1.8% and 0.7%

Thoughts

• Not so fun to see the Cowboys projected to be in first again, although it’s not surprising given they’re coming off a 13-3 season. It’s very much worth noting that there hasn’t been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles did it in the early 2000’s. It’s always more difficult than it seems. As ESPN points out, there’s a greater combined chance (53.6%) that Dallas does not repeat than there is that they do (46.4%).
• Interesting to see the Eagles ranked in third. A lot of subjective rankings (NFL Power Rankings and such) have them finishing last. So the analytics are a little higher on the Eagles than others.
• The Eagles might be third but they’re pretty closer to the Giants in most categories. Philadelphia is 14-4 in their last 18 games against the G-Men so it’s not like New York has been the biggest threat to their success.
• These projections clearly have Washington in the basement of the NFC East. Given how they’ve been a problem for the Eagles in recent years, it’d be nice to see them take a step back. Washington seemingly had a decent offseason in terms of talent acquisition but they also lost some key players, coaching staff members, and had to deal with organizational dysfunction.
• FPI projects an 8-8 season for the Eagles. That’d be one win better than last year’s record of 7-9. How would you feel about that?