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2017 NFL mock draft grades: Scoring the experts

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Does anybody know anything?

NFL: 2017 NFL Draft Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If the 2017 NFL Draft seemed a little hectic to you, well, you weren’t alone. Once the Bears traded up for Mitchell Trubisky, no one really knew what to expect the rest of the way. It made the draft fun, and it made a mockery of mock drafts, as three teams traded up for QBs and the top half of the draft was unexpectedly dominated by offensive players.

As we’ve done for the past two years, today we look back at some mock drafts and see just how accurate, or rather, inaccurate, they were. We’ll look at 23 mock drafts and, as always, include the BGN Community Mock Draft, because it’s fun to see how a bunch of Joes do against the Pros.

The scoring system is brutally simple. One point for every pick off a mock selection was. For example mocking Mitchell Trubisky to the Browns at 12 was 10 picks off, so that’s 10 points. It’s simple, but effective: the closer you were to what actually happened, the better your score. Incorrectly predicting a trade incurs double the points.

Mock Drafter Score Correct Worst Pick
Evan Silva, Rotoworld 208 4 Zach Cunningham 24th (actual: 57th)
Mel Kiper, ESPN 237 4 Jordan Willis 31st (actual: 73rd)
Rob Rang, CBS 239 3 Obi Melifonwu 31st (actual: 56th)
Dane Brugler, CBS 248 3 Obi Melifonwu 32nd (actual: 56th)
Albert Breer, MMQB 252 4 Obi Melifonwu 28th (actual: 56th)
Todd McShay, ESPN 260 2 Dalvin Cook 17th (actual: 41st)
Eric Galko, Optimum Scouting 267 5 Jordan Willis 31st (actual: 73rd)
Lance Zierlein, NFL 272 4 Chibobe Awuzie 27th (actual: 60th)
Matt Miller, Bleacher Report 276 6 Zach Cunningham 24th (actual: 57th)
Peter King, MMQB 280 3 Jordan Willis 31st (actual: 73rd)
Mike Mayock, NFL 283 5 Jordan Willis 30th (actual: 73rd)
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL 284 7 Alvin Kamara 27th (actual: 67th)
Bob McGinn, Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel 284 3 Zach Cunningham 24th (actual: 57th)
Mike Florio, Pro Football Talk 285 5 Davis Webb 27th (actual: 87th)
Dan Kadar, SB Nation 287 5 Davis Webb 32nd (actual: 87th)
Will Brinson, CBS 294 5 Carl Lawson 32nd (actual: 116th)
Chris Burke, Sports Illustrated 297 4 Jordan Willis 31st (actual: 73rd)
Walter Football 303 5 Jordan Willis 31st (actual: 73rd)
Luke Easterling, USA Today 314 6 Dan Feeny 31st (actual: 71st)
Doug Farrar, Bleacher Report 334 4 Carl Lawson 30th (actual: 116th)
BGN Community Mock Draft 356 3 JuJu Smith-Schuster 18th (actual: 62nd)
Pete Prisco, CBS 377 3 Davis Webb 30th (actual: 87th)
Louis Riddick, ESPN 377 3 Jordan Willis 28th (actual: 73rd)
Josh Norris, Rotoworld 485 4 Davis Webb 32nd (actual: 87th)

Best mock drafter: Evan Silva

Daniel Jeremiah’s reign as king ended, and ended sharply. After two years of acing the field, Jeremiah barely finished in the top half, but he can claim a victory: he had the most picks that went at their actual draft position. In a closely bunched field, Silva’s 29 point gap was significant, and well earned. In addition to his 4 correct predictions, Silva called 15 picks within 5 spots of where they were drafted, keeping the damage low.

Worst mock drafter: Josh Norris

Yes, the best and worst of this list are coworkers. Doug Farrar’s two year reign as the worst mock drafter is over, though at 5th worst he was still in the ball park. Norris had a whopping three picks that were over 50 selections off and two more that were over 40 points off as he had Davis Webb, Derek Rivers, Jordan Willis, and Tyus Bowser as first rounders, and he incorrectly predicted that the Jaguars would trade back and take Cam Robinson in the first round. In three years of doing this, Norris’ 485 points was the most ever... by 60 points. That’s going to be hard to top.

Most common miss: Ryan Ramczyk to the Broncos

15 mocks had the Broncos taking Ramczyk, but they passed on him for Garrett Bolles, which three mock drafters, Riddick, Galko, and Easterling, correctly predicted.

Worst pick: Will Brinson mocking Carl Lawson 32nd overall. He could have finished a close second with a different pick. Doug Farrar had Lawson going even higher at 30th, which cost him a top half finish.

Kudos: The BGN community mock draft once again beat a handful of experts. The biggest misses were close, with Smith-Schuster, Dion Dawkins and Zach Cunningham all off by between 40 and 44 selections. But even within that there is more praise: Smith-Schuster and Dawkins were, by far, the least popular picks in that draft, with Cunningham the fourth least popular. In other words, good job everyone else, the three of you that made those picks, consider yourself on double secret probation.

LOL: All three ESPN’s mock drafters got the first pick wrong. Kiper and McShay mocked Trubisky, Riddick predicted Jamal Adams. Mike Florio, who admitted mails it in, beat out 9 people who do this for a living.