What to expect if the Eagles trade on draft day

The 2017 NFL Draft is filled with all kinds of possibilities for the Eagles, in part because they have a variety of picks. They have a mid-1st rounder, pick slightly earlier in the 2nd, a late 3rd, and two 4ths. Given that Howie Roseman is the most active trader in the NFL and Joe Douglas’s long background in trade happy Baltimore, it’s a given the Eagles will make a draft day trade. It’s just a question of, up or down? (Or both?)

What there isn’t much of a question of is what it will cost. Pay no attention to the old draft value chart, because teams don’t use it. The 110th pick isn’t worth X points more than the 115th pick, to teams they’re both early 4th round picks. And we don’t need an outdated chart to predict a trade. We can, as we’ve done over the past few years, know what it will, or at least should, cost the Eagles to reasonably move up or down, based on what teams have actually done in the draft. Looking at trades within about ten spots above and below where the Eagles draft since 2011 (when the CBA slotted rookie contracts), we know what it will cost to move up or down.

1st Round - 14th

Back in February we looked at what it will cost the Eagles to move up a few spots: a 4th and change, depending on what the other team is asking for. It’s the same to move down a handful of spots:

2012: 12 for 15, 114 (mid 4th), 172 (early 6th)

2015: 15, 2016 5th for 17, 117 (mid 4th)

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement around the 14th pick in recent years, but if the Eagles get on the clock and either they don’t like the board or there are plenty of guys to chose from, they could pick up another 4th and maybe something else.

2nd Round - 43rd

There have been a lot of trades around where the Eagles are picking.

2011: 36 for 45, 108 (early 4th), 141 (early 5th)

2012: 43 for 47, 154 (mid 5th), 232 (mid 7th)

2012: 45 for 50, 150 (mid 5th)

2013: 38 for 45, 110 (mid 4th)

2014: 40 and 146 (early 5th) for 45, 111 (early 4th), 227 (mid 7th)

2014: 41 for 44, 153 (mid 5th)

2014: 42 for 54, 122 (late 4th)

2015: 41 for 57, 89 (late 3rd), 201 (late 6th)

2015: 43 and 229 (early 7th) for 51, 116 (mid 4th), 195 (mid 6th)

2016: 38 for 42, 107 (early 4th)

2016: 41 for 49, 117 (mid 4th)

If the Eagles want to move up and grab someone at a position that there is a late 1st/early 2nd run on, it should cost them one of their two 4th rounders.

3rd Round - 99th

There’s even more moves here, though most picks in the ballpark of 99th are early 4ths rather than late 3rds. Still, that group of picks from 90-110 has seen plenty of action.

2011: 90 and 125 (late 4th) for 2012 2nd and 219 (mid 7th)

2011: 104 (early 4th) for 116 (mid 4th) and 2012 4th

2011: 105 (early 4th) and 178 (mid 6th) for 127, 144 and 152

2012: 92 for 97 and 2013 5th

2012: 97 for 103 (early 4th), 196 (late 6th) and 2013 6th

2012: 103 (early 4th) for 180 (early 6th), 2013 3rd

2013: 93 for 109 (early 4th), 146 (mid 5th), 224 (mid 7th)

2013: 98 (early 4th) for 101 (early 4th), 210 (early 7th)

2013: 100 (early 4th) for 112 (mid 4th), 181 (mid 6th)

2014: 93 for 105 (early 4th), 179 (early 6th)

2015: 96 and 219 (early 7th) for 111 (mid 4th), 147 (early 5th), 202 (late 6th)

2015: 102 (early 4th) for 124 (late 4th), 161 (late 5th), 242 (late 7th)

2015: 103 (early 4th) for 104, 229 (early 7th)

2016: 100th (early 4th) for 114 (mid 4th), 154 (mid 5th)

That’s right, if you want to pick up a 4th and a 6th, trade back in the 3rd, not the 1st. Or in other words, you can get back what you gave up to trade up in the first by trading back in the 3rd. And that just might be what the Eagles do, as Howie Roseman loves having the earliest pick he can have in the 4th round to start day three, and at 99 they’d only have to move down 9 picks to have the first pick on day three.

Round 4 - 118th

If they don’t trade back for a top of the 4th round pick, maybe they trade up? The 118th pick is just 10 spots away from the first pick on day three. There should be an option or two available.

2012: 109 for 119, 193 (late 6th)

2012: 117 for 125, 196 (late 6th)

2013: 110 for 116, 187 (mid 6th)

2013: 111 for 2014 3rd

2013: 125 for 146 (mid 5th), 173 (early 6th)

2014: 111 for 123, 199 (mid 6th)

2015: 113 for 2016 3rd

2015: 116 for 123, 198 (late 6th) and 241 (mid 7th)

2015: 124 for 128 and 218 (early 7th)

2016: 113 for 117 and 206 (late 6th)

2016: 120 for 152, 2017 5th

Moving up or down will cost or gain a 6th. With two 4ths, the Eagles moving up in the 1st by giving up the latter 4th and a 6th then trading down the early 4th to “get back” a 6th is an option.

Round 4 - 139th

One of the last picks of the 4th round, the trade activity really drops off once you get into the second half of the draft.

2011: 129 and 204 (early 7th) for 141 (early 5th) and 186 (late 6th)

2011: 145 (mid 5th) for 158 and 229 (mid 7th)

2012: 138 (early 5th) and 223 (mid 7th) for 219 (early 7th) and 2013 4th

2012: 145 (early 5th) for 155, 227 (mid 7th)

2012: 148 for 158, 230 (mid 7th)

2013: 137 (early 5th) for 165 (late 5th, 199 (early 6th)

2013: 139 for 2014 4th

2014: 131 and 246 (late 7th) for 156 (mid 5th) and 2015 5th

2014: 146 (early 5th) for 158, 229 (mid 7th)

2014: 148 (early 5th) for 168, 225 (early 7th)

2014: 149 for 221 (early 7th) and 2015 5th

2015: 137 (early 5th) for 146 and 185 (early 6th)

2015: 147 (mid 5th) for 166 and 247 (late 7th)

2016: 147 (early 5th) for 196 (mid 6th), 204 (late 6th) and 250 (late 7th)

Most of the late 4th/early 5th trades were ones that moved back 10-20 spots and picked up a late 6th to mid 7th, but with no strong correlation between the spot of the pick received to how far back a team traded. That’s a good example of how the old Jimmy Johnson draft value chart is worthless—teams operate on their own agenda, and factor in the player value on the board. In 2012 moving back 10 spots got a mid-7th, in 2015 moving back 11 got an early 6th. Nobody stays hard and fast to a static chart.

Round 5 - 155th

A lot of the trades around the 139th pick also factor into the trades for around the 155th pick, but there’s more to add as data points.

2011: 150 for 168 and 170 (early 5ths)

2011: 153 and 227 (mid 7th) for 161 (late 5th) and 194 (late 6th)

2011: 163 for 174 (early 6th) and 231 (mid 7th)

2012: 163 for 197 (late 6th), 224 (early 7th) and 235 (mid 7th)

2013: 153 for 163, 236 (late 7th)

2013: 160 for 184 (mid 6th) and 198 (late 6th)

2015: 151 for 165 and 244 (late 7th)

2016: 157 and 253 (late 7th) for 176 (early 6th) and 2017 6th

2016: 158 for 2017 4th

It’s about the same as the 139th pick: an early 6th to 7th to move back or up about 20 spots, with exact mileage varying from draft to draft.

Round 6 - 194th

2011: 193 for 194. This was when the Eagles and Patriots swapped picks just for fun.

2013: 189 for 196 (late 6th) and 229 (mid 7th)

2016: 186 for 196 (mid 6th) and 227 (early 7th)

2016: 188 for 196 and 240 (late 7th)

Yes, the 196th pick got passed around last year. And it didn’t stop there, the Eagles used 196 on Blake Countess, who was cut in preseason and picked up by the Rams.

This one is simple: if the Eagles want to move up to the early 6th, it’ll cost them their 7th.

Round 7 - 230th

Nobody trades for these picks, they give them up in packages.

We don’t know when the Eagles will trade, but when they do, now we know what to expect.