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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 13 Games

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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Before the 13th Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 12 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the 12th week is 83-72-6. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 13 Games

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3): Both of these teams are 6-5. Both of these teams are 5-5-1 against the spread. This looks like a relatively even matchup. One big difference is that Baltimore’s defense is very good. Dean Pees’ unit ranks No. 1 in DVOA. The bad news for the Ravens is their offense really sucks. It’s painful to watch. The rest factor is something to consider here with the Ravens having played on Monday night and the Lions being off since Thanksgiving. Joe Flacco has been so putrid that I hate picking his team, but Matt Stafford’s ankle issue has me a little worried. I guess I’m going with Baltimore. Not feeling great about it. PICK: Ravens -3

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7): Neither of these teams are very inspiring. Tom Savage is the least inspiring of anyone. With that in mind, I’ll go with the Titans, who need a win to maintain their AFC South lead. PICK: Titans -7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5): Aaron Rodgers recently practiced for the first time since getting hurt. That’s terrifying news to the rest of the league. Green Bay has no reason to pack it in (no pun intended) knowing that he might be able to come back. They should be able to beat a crappy Bucs team at Lambeau. PICK: Packers -2.5

Denver Broncos (-2) at Miami Dolphins: Without looking it up, I have no idea who the Broncos are starting at quarterback. I don’t need to in order to know he’s terrible. The Dolphins are really bad as well (No. 32 in DVOA), so this game really has all the makings of a crapfest. I was originally tempted to take the points, but then I looked at Miami’s last five games. They’ve been outscored by a total of 95 points in that span. Yeah, I’ll bank on Denver playing desperate enough to end their losing streak. PICK: Broncos -2

New England Patriots (-9) at Buffalo Bills: The Bills bounced back in Kansas City last week. Then again, that Chiefs team has been pretty terrible, so I don’t want to read into that too much. The Patriots are still the Patriots are I’ll take them until they give me reason to otherwise. I’m totally not trying to jinx them into an embarrassing loss. PICK: Patriots -9

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3): The Falcons are heating up. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last five games. Now they’ll face a pretty tough opponent in the Vikings. Minnesota is being underrated here. Their defense will provide a tough matchup for the Falcons’ offense. Case Keenum has been slinging it (never expected to be saying that) and Atlanta will be without top corner Desmond Trufant. The Vikings are 8-3 ATS this year compared to Atlanta’s 5-6 record. I’ll go with the Vikes, even though the Eagles need them to lose. I’m totally not hedging my bet here. PICK: Vikings +3

San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (-3): Oh god. The Bears’ offense is terrible. The 49ers’ offense typically isn’t any better … but Jimmy G is starting this week! Yes, I’m absolutely calling him Jimmy G because I can never remember how to spell him name and I don’t feel like looking it up. So is everyone else. Just admit it. Anyway, yeah, this game sucks. In addition to being bad, both of these teams are banged up. I’ll pick the 49ers for the fun of it because maybe Jimmy G looks good and changes things for the Niners. PICK: 49ers +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at New York Jets: Man, I just don’t know how I could bet on the Chiefs right now. Big Red is probably due for a classic Andy Reid bounce back game, so I don’t feel great picking against them. But if I DO pick them, I know they’ll crap the bed. Tough call. I want to take the Jets but I’ll show a little faith in the Chiefs. And then hate myself for it. PICK: Chiefs -3.5

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10): The Jags beat the Colts earlier this season by a final score of 27 to 0. That game was in Indy. Now they’ll be playing in Jacksonville. The Jags are a shaky bet when you think about how you’re placing faith in Blake Bortles. But the defense should ease some concerns. PICK: Jaguars -10

Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-14): The Browns have to travel to the West Coast to play a Chargers team that’s been playing good football recently. I like the Bolts here. PICK: Chargers -14

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5): When these two teams played in North Carolina earlier this season, the Saints won by a final score of of 34 to 13. I think the Saints will roll again here. They’re a better team than the Panthers. PICK: Saints -5

Los Angeles Rams (-7) at Arizona Cardinals: I’m not about to trust Blaine Gabbert to keep pace with Sean McVay’s offense. PICK: Rams -7

New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-9): I’m taking the Giants! Haha, no, I’m not. Good luck with Geno Smith, G-Men. PICK: Raiders -9

Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Seattle Seahawks: The big one. This is a really interesting line. The Eagles are the first team to be favored by this much in Seattle dating back to 2012. It’s not undeserved. Philadelphia has been CRUSHING their opponents. But the Seahawks are still the Seahawks as long as Russell Wilson is around. In 113 out of their last 115 games, Seattle has either held a lead or been within seven points in the fourth quarter (hat tip to Sheil Kapadia). The Seahawks are 42-8 in their last 50 games despite losing twice at CenturyLink Field already this season. I think the Eagles can win this game. I’m picking them to do so. But I think it’ll be close. Six points is a lot in this situation. PICK: Seahawks +6

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals: Something makes me feel like the Bengals will play the Steelers tough in this game. Pittsburgh has kind of been playing down to the level of their competition. They only beat the Packers by three points. The points are tempting here. Then again, I feel like the Steelers usually handle the Bengals pretty easily. They already beat them by 15 points earlier this season. PICK: Steelers -6