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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 9 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

San Francisco 49ers v Philadelphia Eagles Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Before the ninth Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 8 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the eighth week is 57-50-3. Strong performance by me last week. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 9 Games

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers: Neither of these teams are really playing all that great right now. I haven’t been very impressed by Cam Newton lately. Despite this, I’m not confident enough in the Falcons to take them as road favorites. I think this could really go either way so I’ll take the points. I’m not one of those people who always bets on the home underdog, but I hear they do exist. PICK: Panthers +2.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-7): This one is simple. Tampa Bay is pretty trash. Jameis Winston doesn’t appear to be 100% and he wasn’t even that good when he was anyway. The Saints, meanwhile, are on a hot streak. I don’t see why that wouldn’t continue considering they’re playing at home. They should really be favored by more in this game; seven points is a steal. PICK: Saints -7

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-8): Tricky one. On paper, the Broncos shouldn’t have much of a shot in this one. They’re averaging 9.7 points in their last three games. The Broncos have to travel east to play a 1:00 PM start time after losing a road game on Monday Night Football. In reality, though, I think this game could be close due to Denver’s defense. My prediction is that this game is 17-13 in the fourth quarter ... until the Eagles put the game away with a Jay Ajayi touchdown run. Philly advances to 7-2 against the spread while Denver drops to 2-5-1. PICK: Eagles -8

Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6): The Bengals only managed to beat the Colts by one point at home. The Jaguars should be well-rested after their Week 8 bye. There’s a part of me that always feel skeptical about taking the Jags since, you know, Blake Bortles is their quarterback. But the presence of Leonard Fournette and a No. 1 ranked defense by DVOA has me confident enough to take Doug Marrone’s side. PICK: Jaguars -6

Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-3.5): Not really sure what to make of the roller-coaster Ravens. They’ve had some high highs and low lows this season. Baltimore is coming off a high point of their year by winning 40-0 on Thursday Night Football. The Titans, meanwhile, are coming off their bye. Prior to that, they barely edged out the Browns in overtime. I think I like the points here. PICK: Ravens +3.5

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-7): Really sucks that Deshaun Watson is out for the year after such a promising start. It’s hard to feel great about the Texans with Tom Savage starting at quarterback. Then again, the Colts are losing road games this year by an average of 20 points. Can’t feel confident about counting on them, either. I’ll stick with the home team here and hope Houston has some good karma going for them. PICK: Texans -7

Los Angeles Rams (-5) at New York Giants: The west to east travel factor favors the Giants here, but that’s one of the few things the G-Men have going for them. New York is still dealing with a lot of injuries. They also suspended one of their best defenders in Janoris Jenkins. The Rams have a lot more to play for than the Giants. I’m taking L.A. PICK: Rams -5

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5): Lock of the week. Washington is way too banged up to hang in this game. The Seahawks have been playing well and they just bolstered their offensive line with the addition of Duane Brown at left tackle. Just can’t see Washington having much success in this game on the road. Seattle’s defensive line versus Washington’s injured offensive line should make this a long day for Kirk Cousins. PICK: Seahawks -7.5

Arizona Cardinals (-2) at San Francisco 49ers: I’d stay away from this game. The Cardinals are not good enough to deserve to be favored in almost any road game. At the same time, the 49ers are also terrible. Arizona has been the worst team in the NFL this year ATS at 1-6. San Francisco is better at 4-4. Ugh. The 49ers are just so banged up ... I guess I’ll go with Cardinals. Sigh. PICK: Cardinals -2

Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-2): Bob Sutton’s unit ranks No. 31 in run defense DVOA, so that’s a big concern here with Ezekiel Elliott set to play. The Chiefs unquestionably have the advantage here when it comes to coaching: Andy Reid > Jason Garrett. This game will be close, but I’m taking the Cowboys to win in the hopes of either: 1) I’ll be right about this pick or 2) I’ll be wrong and the Cowboys will have lost. You’re welcome. PICK: Cowboys -2

Oakland Raiders (-3) at Miami Dolphins: Hm. Neither of these teams are playing all that well. The Raiders have lost five out of their last six. The Dolphins are coming off a 40-0 loss. I think Miami is poised to bounce back here since their last game was just such a bad effort. But not enough to beat the Raiders. The west to east factor here shouldn’t matter at much since this is a night game. PICK: Raiders -3

Detroit Lions (-3) at Green Bay Packers: The Packers just aren’t the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. The Lions are dealing with some issues right now; they’re 1-4 in their last five. But Detroit has been showing good fight and keeping their losses close so it’s not like they’ve been altogether awful. The Lions will be looking to seize an opportunity to stay alive in the NFC North picture. PICK: Lions -3

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