NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 12 Games

Before the 12th Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 12 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the 11th week is 78-65-5. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 12 Games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-10): Jameis Winston’s absence hasn’t really hurt the Bucs. They’ve gone 2-0 without him. Playing NYJ and Miami helped with that. Now the Bucs will face a Falcons team that has won three out of their last four games. Atlanta has only won by 10 or more points twice this season, so this isn’t a lock. I just don’t feel good enough about the Bucs to trust them. PICK: Falcons -10

Carolina Panthers (-6) at New York Jets: Speaking of not trusting teams, I’m not all in on this Panthers squad. It was only a few weeks ago when Carolina lost on the road to the Bears by 17 to 3. The Panthers are definitely better than the Jets, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they won. But it could be a close game. I’ll take the points. PICK: Jets +6

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts: Pepperoni is easily my most favorite pizza topping. But I’ve recently come to appreciate a good plain pizza more than I used to. Now, not everyone has a good plain pie. With some places, you need a topping or two. But there’s just something about a plain slice that can be very satisfying. Is there an analogy here? No, I just wanted to talk about pizza instead of this game. PICK: Titans -3.5

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-8): Dammit. I should’ve saved the pizza rant for this one. Eight points seems like a lot for the Bengals. Cincy is not that good. But the Browns are also very bad. So I don’t know. I’d just stay away from this one. I’ll take the Bengals because I trust Cleveland less. PICK: Bengals -8

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5): Call me crazy but I think this is a lot of points. I say that with no disrespect to the Eagles, who are very good. The Eagles will win this game. I just think the Bears aren’t getting enough respect here. Chicago is bad, for sure, but they’re not quite the team that finished with the third overall pick last season. They’ve been playing teams close for most of the season. Their biggest losses came earlier in the season when Mike Glennon was starting. And one of them came against Aaron Rodgers. The Eagles could easily blow out the Bears and make my pick look dumb. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. I’m just taking Chicago because I think their defense could do enough to prevent a total abomination of a game for them. Plus maybe they get a garbage time score or two for a backdoor cover. I could see the Eagles winning by just 14. PICK: Bears +14.5

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-9): Interesting battle between two struggling AFC teams. The Bills have been outscored 135 to 55 during their three-game losing streak. Kansas City, meanwhile, has lost four out of their lost five games. Their most recent defeat came against the Giants, which is really bad. This feels like an Andy Reid bounce-back game to me. Big Red isn’t getting beat by his student, Sean McDermott. PICK: Chiefs -9

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-17): Damn. That’s a lot of points! But it’s really not unwarranted. The Dolphins suck. It’s incredible how they’ve managed to win four games this season. Miami ranks 32nd in DVOA. I’ll take the Pats. PICK: Patriots -17

Seattle Seahawks (-7) at San Francisco 49ers: There’s a notable rest advantage in this game. The 49ers are coming off their Week 11 bye while the Seahawks are playing on a short week after losing on Monday Night Football. The injuries to Seattle’s defense have taken their toll. The Seahawks’ offense, meanwhile, mainly involves relying on Russell Wilson to make plays. Earlier this season, the 49ers only lost in Seattle by three points. Even if they don’t win, I’ll give them a shot to cover at home here. PICK: 49ers +7

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-2): Not a lot of great games this wee, but this projects to be the best one. The Rams are coming off a 17 point loss in Minnesota. The Saints, meanwhile, needed a big comeback effort to beat Washington at home. New Orleans’ improved defense has taken a hit with both starting cornerbacks out in this one. The Rams are also dealing with a significant injury as leading receiver Robert Woods is hurt. A Saints loss would be great for the Eagles, so I’m going to take them. If they win, I was right. If they lose, I took one for the team. You’re welcome. PICK: Saints +2

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-4.5): Denver’s six-game losing streak is the second worst in the NFL. They just don’t stand much of a chance given their quarterback situation. Now Paxton Lynch is making his first start of the season. The feeling here is it’ll more of the same for the Broncos. Oakland will win at home. PICK: Raiders -4.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals: Blake Bortles vs. Blaine Gabbert! The battle of the future former Jaguars starting quarterback and the current former Jaguars starting quarterback. This Arizona team is pretty depleted so give me the Jags. PICK: Jaguars -5.5

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14): With Brett Hundley starting, the Packers got shut out at home by 23-0 last week. Pittsburgh’s defense is good enough to limit Green Bay’s offense in similar fashion. The Steelers will be able to score enough points at home to cover. PICK: Steelers -14

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-7): Baltimore’s offense is pretty trash. They rank No. 1 overall in defense and special teams, though. The Ravens should be able to score a defensive touchdown or two on some turnovers by “Tom Savage.” That should be enough to cover at home. PICK: Ravens -7