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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 11 Games

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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

NFL: Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Before the 11th Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 11 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the 10th week is 70-61-4. Rough week last week! Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 11 Games

Jacksonville Jaguars (-8) at Cleveland Browns: The Blake Bortles factor is what makes this a tough bet. Jacksonville is clearly a better team than the winless Browns. Their defense should be able to make life tough on DeShone Kizer. But eight points? It makes me a little uneasy. I’ll take them because I don’t think the Browns deserve faith. PICK: Jaguars -8

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5): Great matchup of two titans in the NFC. It’s hard to feel great about Case Keenum being able to match the kind of points the Rams can score. Then again, they might not have to if Minnesota’s defense shows up. I like the home team here but I could really go either way with this one. Tough call, which is the point of this activity. PICK: Vikings -1.5

Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers: The Ravens aren’t trustworthy. I like what I saw out of the Packers in Week 10 enough to take Green Bay as home dogs. PICK: Packers +2

Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants: The Giants stink. Andy Reid is great coming off the bye. He’s going to run circles around Ben McAdoo. Easy call. PICK: Chiefs -10.5

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-9.5): This is a weird line to me. I know the Saints have been playing great and they’re at home ... but it’s not like Washington has been awful. They got a win in Seattle. They played the Chiefs close in Kansas City. I’m going to be a sucker and take the points. I say the Saints still win, but Washington could do enough to cover. Even if it’s in backdoor fashion. PICK: Washington +9.5

Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-2.5): Gross. Definitely a game to stay away from. I think I’m actually going to take the points here. I hate putting any level of faith in Blaine Gabbert but I think “Tom Savage” is even more of a turnover machine. PICK: Cardinals +2.5

Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears: The Lions had a brief scare against the Browns last week but overall they looked solid. Detroit has played their NFC North rivals well this season. I think they go into Chicago and beat a Bears team that lost to the Bretty Hundley Packers last Sunday. PICK: Lions -3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) at Miami Dolphins: It’s incredible the Dolphins have four wins. They’re awful. Miami ranks dead last in DVOA and they’re fourth to last in point differential. The Dolphins are playing on a short week after getting blown out on Monday Night Football. The Bucs, meanwhile, were able to pick up their third win of the season last week. I don’t know how anyone could trust Miami here. PICK: Buccaneers -1

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-6): The Chargers are heavily favored here due to the fact the Bills will be starting Nathan Peterman at quarterback. I don’t think the rookie quarterback is going to fare particularly well against the Los Angeles pass rush. I’ll take the Bolts here. This Bills team is fraudulent. PICK: Chargers -6

New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders: The Patriots and Raiders are traveling south of the border to play in Mexico City. Oakland’s had some pretty bad losses this season. Bad enough, at least, to convince me they’re not very good. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still the Patriots. No reason to bet against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick on a neutral field here. PICK: Patriots -7

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-3): Allow me to state the obvious: neither of these teams are very good. Brock Osweiler is probably the least inspiring quarterback in the NFL. With that in mind, I don’t know how I could bet on him. It’s not like I feel great about Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis, either, but I don’t know. I’d just stay away from this game. But since I have to pick, I’ll take the points in the hope that it’s a close/ugly game. PICK: Bengals +3

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys: This line opened with the Eagles as 3.5 point favorites and now it’s jumped all the way to 6.5. The Eagles feel like a real good bet. Philly is coming off a bye. Their 53-man roster is pretty healthy. The same can’t be said for the Cowboys, who will be without three of the best players on their roster: Tyron Smith, Sean Lee, and Ezekiel Elliott. On paper, at least, the Eagles match up well against Dallas. Divisional games can get a little unpredictable, but the Eagles are a legitimately good team. They’ve earned your trust. 7-2 ATS this season. PICK: Eagles -6.5

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-2): This is a tough one. On one hand, the Falcons might be able to have success against a Seattle secondary that’ll be without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. On the other hand, the Seahawks are just so good at home. They’re 42-7 in their last 49 home games. I’m tempted to take the points but I feel like it’s hard to regret going with the home team in this case. PICK: Seahawks -2