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Fantasy football start/sit advice guide: Best and worst picks for NFL Week 11

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NFL: Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Disclaimer: Starts and Sits are relative to where a player is ranked on the aggregate. In other words, a “Start” is someone I like more than most, and a “Sit” is the opposite. So if I say to start Eli Manning and sit Dak Prescott, that doesn't mean I'd start Eli over Dak, it just means I think Manning will exceed his expectations while Prescott will underperform his (hopefully they both suck). Cool? Cool. Let's get it. -Seltz

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***For more fantasy football advice, check out BGN Radio’s This Week In Fantasy podcast!***

QUARTERBACK

START

Alex Smith (@ NYG) – Before we dive into my award-winning analysis*** I'd be remiss if I didn't mention my performance from last week. Let's just get it out of the way so we can all move forward without it hanging over us for the rest of the column. I need to be a man and own up to it; My performance last week was...awesome. I just keep banging out badass (phrasing?) start/sit calls week after week. But here's the thing, I'm humble about it. Incredibly humble. Which is hard to believe, because, I mean, my calls have been pretty amazing. I have been on fire the last few weeks. But again, it's crucial to stay humble and keep your eyes on the prize. Speaking of prizes, the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner, and there is no sweeter prize than a fantasy football championship (not true but roll with me). But you have to make it to the dance before you go dancing, aka you gotta be in it to win it – so let's get into Week 11. Can you believe it's Week 11?! Me either. It's crazy how fast the season moves along. You wanna hear something crazier? Way, way crazier?! Heading into Week 11, Alex Smith is the #3 scoring QB in fantasy. NUMBER 3!!! What was originally a nice early season story, has become Alex Smith potentially carrying your teams to the fantasy playoffs. Wild. What a world we live in. For those lucky enough to own Smith, it should be another good one, as he faces a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks over the last four weeks, and more importantly, looks like they've quit on the season (aka they quit on the season because Ben McAdoo is their head coach). Smith is ranked appropriately by the experts this week (consensus #4 QB) but is way underpriced in DFS formats, so take advantage there.

***Editor's Note: James has never won any award for his analysis. That is a fictional statement. The only award Seltz is winning is the award for most long-winded, overly verbose writer. That's a fictional award. Obviously. Luckily, James has assured me he's going to be more efficient with his words moving forward. Anyhoo, this is starting to get weird...back to the starts and sits.

Carson Wentz (@ DAL) – Cause duh. Dallas Sucks.

Eli Manning (vs. KC) – Hold on. I just threw up in my mouth after typing “Eli Manning” in the start section and I'm still trying to recover. Gross. Just...gross. Let's do this quick so I can move on to someone less vomit-inducing. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most points to QB's and Eli has thrown multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games. And yes, I know I just said the Giants quit on McAdoo and now I'm recommending a Giant. I get how stupid that may seem. But garbage time points count as much as any other points. If you don't believe me, ask Blake Bortles. Eli is under ranked and undervalued this week in a good matchup where the Giants will be likely be trailing and need to throw. Alright, that'll do it. Let's mercifully move on.

SIT

Dak Prescott (vs. PHI) – Welp, I guess I lied about the vomit-inducing thing. Going from Eli to Dak isn't going to stop the explosive projectile vomit from pouring into (and out of) my mouth. Having said that, at least Dak (consensus #6 QB) is a sit, meaning I don't have to say anything positive about him. So that's better. It's actually working, I think. I'm feeling less vomity (not a word). You know what makes me even less vomity (I'm rolling with it), thinking about the Eagles defense harassing Prescott all game. No Zeke. No Tyron Smith. No Dez. Well, Dez is playing, but he's terrible. So no Dez for all intents and purposes. Most importantly, Dallas sucks.

Derek Carr (vs. NE) – Everyone seems to love Derek Carr this week. He's the consensus #7 QB and I'm perplexed by it. Am I crazy? Well, I'm definitely crazy, but not about this. At least, I don't think I am. Carr has only thrown for more than one touchdown in a game once – ONCE – in his last six games and is the #21 overall scoring quarterback on the season. And I know the Pats have allowed a lot of points to QB's this season, but they haven't over the last four weeks (eighth-least allowed), and generally look like they're getting it together on that side of the ball. I guess what I'm saying can be best described by a slightly misquoted Beatles lyric, “Baby you can't drive my Carr.” Thank you, thank you very much. I'll be here all week. Actually, that's a lie. I'll be here for the rest of this start/sit column and then I'm out. Speaking of the end of this column, let's get there sooner rather than later. Less of my word vomit (callback), more of the start/sit awesomeness (another callback).

RUNNING BACK

START

Melvin Gordon (vs. BUF) – To be honest, I don't think Gordon is good. He's not elusive or super fast or anything, really. He's just...fine. The one area he truly shines is his (lol) workload. He gets a TON of volume. Why is this particularly important this week, you may ask. Well, I'd say, before pausing pensively to properly own the moment...Buffalo is bad, son (no idea why you're my son in this scenario, but roll with me). Buffalo is bad at defending the run. So so so so so so bad. How bad, you may ask. And I'd say, son, don't you ever question me. I said they're really bad, just believe me that they're really effing bad. Alright? Jeez. Sorry, I got real wrapped up in the whole father-son thing there. My bad. For real though, the Bills are a disaster against the run (and against RB's in the passing game), so Gordon's volume should lead to a great week for the super average Melvin.

Jay Ajayi (@ DAL) – I keep saying I'm going to be more brief and I keep not being more brief. I'm trying, y'all. But I'll try harder. Here goes: Ajayi is a beast and has had some time to learn the offense. Dallas' defense is trash and they're allowing 2.0 YPC – TWO YARDS PER CARRY!!! – more when Sean Lee isn't on the field than when he is – and Sean Lee will almost definitely not be on the field Sunday night. Most importantly, Dallas sucks.

SIT

Tevin Coleman (@ SEA) – Yes, I know Devonta Freeman is out. I also know Coleman is the consensus #9 running back heading into the weekend, despite a matchup on the road with a stout Seattle run defense. #9 is way too high. That is all. How's that for brevity?

Joe Mixon (@ DEN) – Let's keep the concise train rolling. As we've discussed, ad nauseam, I hate Joe Mixon. He's soooooooo overrated. Mixon (consensus #17 RB) is only averaging 3.0 YPC on the season, and hasn't been able to carve out a roll in the offense the way many expected (only 9 carries last week) he could/would. Plus, he faces a Denver defense that is outstanding against the run.

WIDE RECEIVER

START

Adam Thielen (vs. LAR) – Thielen is a machine. All he does is get open and catch the ball. And he always does those two things. Every. Single. Week. He's caught at least five passes in each game this season and is the #3 scoring wide receiver in fantasy. Aka, Thielen is good and you should value you as a Top 5-10 wide receiver for the rest of the season.

Sterling Shepard (vs. KC) – See Eli Manning entry above. Add on that the Chiefs have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any team in the league and that Shepard caught 11 of his 13 targets last week for 142 yards. Done and done.

SIT

Doug Baldwin (vs. ATL) – This is one of those classic “read the disclaimer at the top of the page” kind of sits. Baldwin is not here because I think he'll have a terrible week, he's here because he's the consensus #1 WR heading into the weekend. NUMBER 1!!! That shiz is cray. Start Baldwin in your seasonal leagues, obviously, but no way should he be the #1 WR, especially against a Falcons defense that has been surprisingly competent at limiting fantasy points to wide receivers.

DeAndre Hopkins (vs. ARI) – Go big or go home. Hopkins is another guy you probably have to start in seasonals if you own him. But he's getting the Patrick Peterson treatment and has Tom Savage as his quarterback. Either one of those things would slow down 99% of receivers, but both those things? Not even the great DeAndre Hopkins can withstand that.

TIGHT END

START

Vernon Davis (@ NO) – Jordan Reed had a setback with his hamstring injury and looks unlikely to play Sunday. I know the concept of Reed being hurt is probably foreign to you, because he's obviously the bastion of health, but I swear it's true. With Reed out, Davis should again be one of Kurt Coupons' go-to options (20 targets over last two games) and should easily outperform his consensus #9 ranking.

Tyler Kroft (@ DEN) – Kroft has gotten six targets in two of the last three games. Denver has allowed the second-most points to tight ends. Kroft is a tight end. Targets plus good matchup equals start. Ipso facto and all that.

SIT

Cameron Brate (@ MIA) – I don't feel strongly about either of the tight end sits this week, as I think the consensus rankings were pretty accurate at the position. Having said that, Brate (consensus #7 tight end) has had two straight clunker performances and has Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback. So, yeah.

Kyle Rudolph (vs. LAR) – As the consensus #8 tight end heading into the weekend, Rudolph is simply ranked too highly. That's it. It's inarguable. The Rams defend tight ends well and Rudolph hasn't had more than 47 yards receiving in a game this season. Boom. Inarguable.

DEFENSE

START

Philadelphia Eagles (@ DAL) – DALLAS SUCKS!!!

SIT

Seattle Seahawks (vs. ATL) – Seattle's defense is banged up and Atlanta's offense isn't the worst. #Analysis

KICKER

START

Some guy who's playing in a dome or who's on a team with a good offense.

[BLG Note: Start Jake Elliott.]

SIT

Any guy who doesn't qualify the above set standard for “Start.”

***For more fantasy football advice, check out BGN Radio’s This Week In Fantasy podcast!***

The newest and best app to play weekly Fantasy Football is DRAFT! Sign up now with the promo code BGNR and play a real money game for FREE! You win 80% more on Draft than regular salary cap sites! Don't like it? No problem, they guarantee your money back up to $100 if you don't.