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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 10 Games

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Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Kansas City Chiefs v Dallas Cowboys Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images

Before the 10th Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 10 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the ninth week is 66-52-4. Another strong performance by me last week. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 10 Games

New York Jets (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Jets have the second best record ATS in the NFL this year at 6-2-1. The Bucs have the worst record ATS in the NFL this year at 1-6-1. I’m gonna eat this W and roll with the Jets. They’ll be familiar with how to shut down Ryan Fitzpatrick, as if they needed that to beat Tampa Bay. The extra rest coming off Thursday Night Football is another reason to pick NYJ. PICK: Jets -2

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts: Pittsburgh’s average margin of victory on the road this year is only five points. Their only road win by 10 or more was a 17-point victory against Baltimore. So I’m not necessarily convinced this is a slam dunk, but I can’t take the Colts. Pittsburgh’s defense should be able to limit the Indy offense. I just have some concerns about the Steelers offense, which ranks 19th in offensive points per game. PICK: Steelers -10

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills: The Bills are undefeated at home this season (4-0). Their average margin of victory is 10.5 points. I don’t fully buy this Buffalo team; I’m not surprised they lost to the Jets on Thursday night last week. But I do like them a lot more at home in the cold against a dome team like the Saints. The home dog is a tempting pick here, so I’ll go with it. PICK: Bills +3

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5): Chicago is 5-3 ATS this year while Green Bay is 3-5. If you’re picking this game straight up, the Bears have to be the choice. Brett Hundley just isn’t very threatening at all. Picking the Bears at -5 is more difficult, which is the point of this thing. I don’t think they’re that good in relation to the Packers. But coming off the bye and playing at home ... I’ll roll with Chi-town. They’ve played relatively well at Soldier Field all season. Plus the Packers are playing on a short week. PICK: Bears -5

Minnesota Vikings (-2) at Washington Redskins: Case Keenum has been playing OK and the Minnesota defense is good but I just don’t really feel strongly about the Vikings. Kind of waiting for them to have a letdown game or two. Maybe that happens here on the road. Washington needs this win a lot more than they do. I like the home dog once again here. PICK: Washington +2

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5): The Jags have been inconsistent so they could due for a loss here. But I like Jacksonsville’s defense to take care of the Chargers. Tough spot for Los Angeles traveling to the East Coast to play a 1:00 PM start. PICK: Jaguars -4.5

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10.5): The Browns are terrible. They have a rest advantage since they’re coming off their bye and the Lions played on Monday night but that’s not enough to matter much here. Detroit is getting their starting left tackle (Taylor Decker) back so that’s a nice boost for the Lions. PICK: Lions -10.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5): Tennessee is 3-1 at home this year. Cincinnati is 1-3 on the road this year, with their sole win coming over the winless Browns. I don’t feel really strongly about either team so I’ll go with the home side. PICK: Titans -5

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-13): The Texans are completely hopeless with Tom Savage starting. The Rams are No. 1 in point differential and DVOA for a reason. They’re good and they can put up points. Just don’t see how you could take Houston here. They lost to the friggin Colts last week. At home. PICK: Rams -13

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5): A Falcons win here would sure be great for the Philadelphia Eagles. It certainly seems more possible with Ezekiel Elliott not playing. The bad news is that Atlanta just doesn’t seem very good. They’re 2-6 ATS this season, which is the second worst record in the league. The Falcons’ defense isn’t very inspiring. I’ll take the Cowboys (5-3 ATS) here. And if I’m wrong, oh well. PICK: Cowboys +3.5

New York Giants (-3) at San Francisco 49ers: There’s part of me that wants to take San Fran. The New York Giants are a mess, after all. But the 49ers are just so bad. I can’t trust C.J. Beathard. I’ll take New York and then probably regret it later. I’d avoid betting this game, obviously. PICK: Giants -3

New England Patriots (-8) at Denver Broncos: Lmao, the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler again. The Patriots, who are coming off their bye, are the easy pick here. PICK: Patriots -8

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9): The Panthers are 12-0 straight up and 10-1-1 ATS since 2010 as home favorites of seven or more points. History says to go with them. I don’t fully trust Carolina but I think the Dolphins, who rank 31st in DVOA, are legitimately bad at this point. PICK: Panthers -9