NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 5 Games

Before the fifth Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 5 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the fourth week is 28-29-1. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 5 Games

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5): The Cardinals are not a good team. It’s been said all week: Arizona’s two wins have come in close games against very bad teams. That doesn’t mean this game is a guaranteed win for the Eagles. But I do feel good about the (midnight green) Birds. The Eagles haven’t had that “blowout” win yet this season. I’m not saying the Eagles are gonna beat the Cards by 30 points, but I do think this could be a double-digit win for Philadelphia. The Cardinals’ offensive line figures to be overmatched against the Eagles’ pass rush. PICK: Eagles -6.5

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): Looks like a weird line, right? The Bills have played well. They’re coming off wins against the Broncos and the Falcons (in Atlanta). Why are they dogs in this one? Especially against a bad Bengals team? Taking the point is an easy call, right? Not so fast. Cincy has been playing better recently. They only lost to the Packers by three in Lambeau and then they blew out the Browns. There’s a reason why the Bengals are favored here. PICK: Bengals -3

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are baaaaaad. Their offense is averaging 7.7 points through three games. Jay Cutler is very uninspiring. Buuuuuut ... the Titans might not be all that much better, especially if Marcus Mariota is out. Tennessee’s quarterback is questionable for this game. The Titans will likely be starting Matt Cassel under center. Give me the home dogs in an upset. PICK: Dolphins +3

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-2.5): The Panthers are coming off an impressive road win over the Patriots. Can they repeat in Detroit? Eh, not so sure. The Lions are arguably the second best team in the NFL. I like them at home over the Panthers, especially since they’re getting less than a standard three points at home. PICK: Lions -2.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5): If you read our weekly fantasy column (written by James Seltzer), you know there’s a big difference between Ben Roethlisberger’s home versus road numbers. With this game set to place take in Pittsburgh, they’re the pick. The Jags are a little hard to read based on what they’ve done this season but a loss to the Jets should inspire confidence in picking the home team. PICK: Steelers -7.5

New York Jets (-1) at Cleveland Browns: Will the Browns get their first win of the 2017 NFL season? I don’t think so. The Jets aren’t good, but they’re not as bad as they were expected to be. New York’s ground game has been effective recently which takes pressure off of Josh McCown. With this game essentially set to be a pick ‘em, I’ll take the Jets here. There’s no reason to feel good about taking the Browns until they show something. PICK: Jets -1

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-3): The battle of the two winless teams. Which one sucks less? Three out of the Chargers’ four games this season have been close. It’s not like they’ve been getting blown out of the water every single week. The Giants, meanwhile, have looked a little more competent in recent games after looking really terrible in the first two weeks. It’s going to be tough for L.A. to travel to the East Coast and come out with a win, methinks. The G-Men get their first win of the season today. Not that it’ll do anything to change the outcome of their season. PICK: Giants -3

San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-2): The 49ers have shown some nice fight recently. After losing by 20 points in Week 1, Kyle Shanahan’s squad lost by three points to the Seahawks (in Seattle), two points to the Rams, and three points to the Cardinals in overtime. So I like their chances of at least being competitive against an Andrew Luck-less Colts teams that’s been a disaster at times this season. At the very least, this could be another tight tilt, so the points are tempting. PICK: 49ers +2

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-3): The Raiders will likely be starting E.J. Manuel (instead of Derek Carr) against the Ravens. That definitely should make anyone feel less confident about Oakland’s chances. However, it’s hard to feel great about the Ravens as well. They’ve been outscored 70 to 16 in their last two games. I think Oakland can do enough at home to cover against a team that’s really struggled to score. PICK: Raiders -3

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5): Good stat here from BGN reader Joshua: the Rams haven’t covered as a favorite against the Seahawks since 2002. 2002! It’s been 15 years. That could change today. The Rams’ defensive front should be a big mismatch for Seattle’s offensive line. Sean McVay’s offense, led by Jared Goff and Todd Gurley, has really been clicking. PICK: Rams -1.5

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3): My strategy usually involves betting on the NFC East team to win/cover so that I’m either 1) glad I got the pick right or 2) glad the NFC East team lost. But I can’t take the Cowboys here. Aaron Rodgers has their number. This Dallas team just isn’t as impressive as last year. At worst, this will probably be a close game. The points make too much sense not to take here. PICK: Packers +3

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Houston Texans: This could be a really good game. Deshaun Watson and the Texans have been making some noise recently. Now it’s time for their biggest test of the season: facing the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL. The Chiefs are coming off a short week after playing on Monday night. I’m tempted to be against them here ... but it’s hard not to like what Kansas City has done this season. It just seems like they find a way to keep winning. They’re objectively the better team so it has to be them in a pick ‘em. PICK: Chiefs -1

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears: Call me crazy but I like the Bears on MNF. There are concerns about rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky going up Mike Zimmer in his first NFL start. But the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s class flashed some nice potential in the preseason. Not to mention the Bears have played decent at home this year; Chicago lost to the Falcons by six and beat the Steelers. With the Vikings’ quarterback up in the air, I’ll take the Bears in the upset. PICK: Bears +3