NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 7 Games

Before the seventh Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 7 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the sixth week is 40-43-1. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 7 Games

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3): Can’t believe I’m saying it, but I kind of like this Jets team. They’ve been playing above expectation for most of the season. The Jets would’ve beaten the Patriots last week if not for a blown call. They’re not awful. It’s easy to say the Dolphins aren’t awful after the way they beat the Falcons in Atlanta. But the Dolphins needed a comeback to win and they certainly have looked awful during stretches of this season. I like the Jets more, especially with the points. PICK: Jets +3

Tennessee Titans (-6) at Cleveland Browns: Here’s the thing about the Browns: they’re terrible. DeShone Kizer is back as the starting quarterback after Kevin Hogan was somehow even worse than he was. It won’t make a difference against Marcus Mariota and company. The Titans will take care of business on the road. PICK: Titans -6

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3): The Cardinals are back! Adrian Peterson has returned to form! Arizona’s season is saved! Eh. Slow down on that. Let’s see a little more from the Cards before we start saying things like that. The Rams have a legitimately good offense and Arizona could struggle with that. I don’t like Bruce Arians’ side enough to go with them when they aren’t at home. PICK: Rams -3

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5): The battle of the purple teams. Boy, the Ravens sure aren’t great. Joe Flacco has the worst passer rating (66.1) of any qualified starting quarterback in the NFL this season. It’s not like Case Keenum is the most inspiring passer, and the Vikings won’t have Stefon Diggs, but I still like Minnesota to be able to win at home. Baltimore is hard to trust. PICK: Vikings -5.5

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Chicago Bears: After beating the Ravens in Baltimore last week, and beating the Steelers earlier this season, maybe the Bears aren’t as bad as people would think? Maybe, but they’re not good. I mean, Chicago won a game last week where Mitchell Trubisky only completed eight passes. EIGHT! That’s not sustainable. The well-rested Panthers will bounce back after having off since last Thursday. PICK: Panthers -3

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at Indianapolis Colts: The Colts are not really that much better than the Browns without Andrew Luck. It sounds like they’ll be without him all season. Meanwhile, the Jags have shown some signs of promise. And they’ve won every other game this season, so that clearly means they’re due this week. It’s science. PICK: Jaguars -3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3): The Bucs look pretty gross. Take a gander at their body of work this year and it’s just not very impressive. Marching into Buffalo and getting a win over a Bills team that’s coming off a bye won’t be easy. Not to mention Jameis Winston is potentially dealing with a shoulder issue. Circle the wagons because I like the Bills in this one. No idea if I used that phrase correctly. PICK: Bills -3

New Orleans Saints (-4) at Green Bay Packers: If the Packers had Aaron Rodgers, it’d be a no-brainer to take Green Bay here. If the Packers had Aaron Rodgers, they would also not be four point underdogs at home, however. Breaking news, I know. Color me a skeptic of Brett Hundley’s ability to replace arguably the best player in the league. Hundley has some weapons to work with, sure, but this Saints team is a little more inspiring lately. They’ve won three in a row and they’re clearly capable of putting up points. PICK: Saints -4

Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) at San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are the first team in NFL history to lose five games in a row by three points or fewer. They’re due for a win. San Fran is facing a Cowboys defense that’s vulnerable to the run. That’s good news for the 49ers because they don’t want their rookie quarterback, C.J. Beathard, throwing a ton. I think Dallas wins this game due to the talent disparity here. But the 49ers could very well cover yet again. PICK: 49ers +6.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5): The Bengals are coming off their bye to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Both of these teams have been kinda weird this season. Cincy got off to an awful start but they’ve shown some competency since promoting Bill Lazor to offensive coordinator. The Steelers, meanwhile, lost to the Bears and got killed by the Jaguars but managed to beat the Chiefs, the NFL’s only undefeated team at the time. So this is a game I’m not crazy about picking because there’s not a lot of trust here. I lean towards the Steelers because of home field advantage and their offensive weapons. PICK: Steelers -5

Denver Broncos (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: This line opened at Broncos -2.5, went to a pick ‘em, and now moved back to the Broncos as road favorites. It’s hard to know what to make of Denver after that home loss to the Giants. The Chargers, meanwhile, are actually on a two-game win streak. The problem for L.A. is that their stadium doesn’t give them much home field advantage, as Eagles fans proved, so that’s not a big factor here. I’d think the Broncos will bounce back this week after just a terrible effort in Week 6. PICK: Broncos -1.5

Seattle Seahawks (-4) at New York Giants: Seattle is coming off their bye to face the G-Men. New York is coming off an impressive win in Denver that only served to hurt their draft position. The Giants were in a spot last week where the Broncos clearly slept on them. I don’t think that happens twice in a row. This Giants team still has a lot of issues. My confidence level in the Seahawks isn’t super high, but they still have talent on defense and Russell Wilson can make some things happen. PICK: Seahawks -4

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3): It feels like a lot of people are taking the Falcons to beat the Patriots because New England’s defense isn’t that great. Also because the Falcons got up big on the Patriots in the Super Bowl before eventually blowing that 28-3 lead. While all of that is true, this is still the Patriots at home we’re talking about here. And did people forget the Falcons just lost to Jay Cutler at home? I’ll go with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick here. PICK: Patriots -3

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): This line opened at Eagles -4, shifted to Eagles -4.5, and hasn’t moved since. The dangerous thing about this game is that Washington needs a win a lot more badly than the Eagles do. With that said, Philly is clearly the better team on paper. And arguably the best team in the NFL entirely. The Eagles should be able to take advantage of a Washington defense that’s banged up and missing top cornerback Josh Norman. On defense, it all comes down to Philly’s front four dominating Washington’s offensive line in the trenches. That’s how the Birds got a win in Week 1. While some expect a blowout in this one, I just don’t see it that way. This has the makings of a hard-fought game. For that reason, I’m tempted to pick Washington. But I trust the Eagles a little more because I think they’re legitimately good. I think the Birds barely cover. PICK: Eagles -4.5