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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2017: Week 4 Games

Here are some suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Buffalo Bills v Philadelphia Eagles Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Before the fourth Sunday of the 2017 NFL regular season kicks off, let’s have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for today’s games. (Click here for NFL Week 4 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today’s NFL betting lines and more via SB Nation. My regular season record after the third week is 20-22-1. Last week was a real tough one. Let’s get to the picks.

NFL Week 4 Games

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are coming off a loss to the Jets. The Jets! Not great. Their offense has only managed 25 points combined through two games played so far. Miami could find some more success against the Saints’ bad defense, but New Orleans’ offense figures to be better. I like the Saints here on the neutral field in London. PICK: Saints -3.5

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): I’m going to be sticking with my method of picking NFC East teams to win here. If the Cowboys win, at least I got my pick correct. If they lose, I’ll lose no sleep over getting the pick wrong. I do think the Cowboys will win this game. Jared Goff and Sean McVay need to show more before they’ve earned confidence to be picked on the road like this. PICK: Cowboys -6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at New York Jets: The Jaguars ... might be ... good? They certainly kicked the crap out of the Ravens last week. The Jets, who won last week, might not be quite as bad as everyone thought. Still, it’s not like they’re actually good or anything. I can’t believe it, but I’m taking the Jags here. I won’t be surprised if/when they disappoint. I’d stay away from this game if I were you. PICK: Jaguars -3.5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns: What’s up with this line? I mean, sure, the Browns are bad. But Cincy managed to score nine points in their first two games combined. The Bengals looked better against the Packers, yes, but to me that was an artificial spark created by the Bill Lazor promotion. Cincinnati ran out of juice in that game and I think they won’t fare much better here. I like the home dog, so I’m rolling with the Dawg Pound here. PICK: Browns +3.5

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8): Beating the Broncos at home was a quality win for the Bills. That doesn’t make me confident they’ll suddenly be good enough to beat the Falcons, who are legitimately still one of the best teams in the league, in Atlanta. The fact that Chick-fil-A isn’t open on Sundays at the new Falcons stadium won’t prevent there from being fried Buffalo wings at this game (Why do you read anything I write?) PICK: Falcons -8

Tennessee Titans (-3) at Houston Texans: I think this is a tougher pick than it appears. First instinct is to take the Titans. They’ve looked good. The Texans have looked less good, but they showed good fight against the Patriots in New England. I think I need to see more from Houston before trusting them. I like the Titans more for now. PICK: Titans -3

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-9): The Patriots are looking a lot shakier than expected. With that said, they should be able to take care of business against a Panthers team that isn’t very inspiring right now. Cam Newton is struggling. PICK: Patriots -9

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens beat two really bad teams (Browns and Bengals) before getting absolutely demolished by the Jaguars. I do expect a much better effort this week from John Harbaugh’s squad but it might not be enough to beat the Steelers. Baltimore is still missing star defensive tackle Brandon Williams which will make it harder to stop Le’Veon Bell. PICK: Steelers -3

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-2): Case Keenum is capable of having some good games. He’s not capable of consistently stringing them together over time. The Lions are inches away from being 3-0. Detroit looks good and I don’t trust Keenum to hold up. Give me the points. PICK: Lions +2

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5): Some have suggested this is a trap game for the Eagles. I really don’t think so. The Eagles are coming off an emotional win, yes, but it’s not like they played super well. In addition, they’re still dealing with some injury issues. The players know they need to step up. And it’s not exactly like the Eagles are entering a hostile environment; there will be a lot of Philly fans at the StubHub Center in L.A. Dating back to last season, the Chargers have lost eight games in a row. Maybe they’re due for a win. I think it’s more likely that they’re just not good. I think this game will close at worst for the Eagles so I like the points here. PICK: Eagles +2.5

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): You know that thing I do where I pick the NFC East teams to win? Yeah, I can’t do that here. The Giants suck. Tampa Bay sure didn’t look good in Week 3 but I think they’ll bounce back at home. New York is staring 0-4 right in the face. PICK: Buccaneers -3

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7): Gross. The Cardinals do not deserve to be seven point favorites. Arizona is the oldest team in the NFL and it shows. They’re averaging just a little over 17 points scored per game through the first three weeks. After losing badly in Week 1, the 49ers have shown some moxie against their division opponents. I could see another close game here. Keep in mind the 49ers played on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 while the Cards played on Monday night. There’s a rest advantage for SF here. PICK: 49ers +7

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3): I feel a lot more confident in taking the Broncos at home than on the road. The Raiders are coming off a Sunday night loss where they got their butts kicked. They’ll put forth a better effort in this game, for sure. Still, Denver’s defense might prove too tough to solve. PICK: Broncos -3

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13): The Seahawks have scored an average of 16 points in their first three games. Do you really trust them to score enough to be able to cover this? Their offensive line is just abysmal. Seattle is definitely going to win this game; their home field advantage is still very real. It’s just a matter of whether they can cover the spread. I don’t feel great about it but I guess I’ll take them. PICK: Seahawks -13

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7): Washington has notched two quality wins after losing to the Eagles in Week 1. The Chiefs will prove to be their toughest test yet. Kansas City continues to look like the best team in the NFL. With that said, I’m taking Washington in hopes of being wrong. PICK: Washington +7

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