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On Tuesday, Bovada released stat predictions and prop bets for a few players from each team.
We already looked at Carson Wentz and Ryan Mathews, and Jordan Matthews. Today, we’ll look at Zach Ertz.
Total Receiving Yards in the 2016 Regular Season: 750
Through three seasons, Ertz has pulled down 750 receiving yards just once, but it was last season, a year in which he looked out of sync for the majority of the year, as did the entire offense surrounding him. That should be an encouraging sign for the fourth-year tight end, who needs a big year as much as anyone on the team. He’s been heralded as the team’s next great receiving tight end, the second coming of Pete Retzlaff. This is his year to prove his growth.
With Trey Burton likely to see more action this season, and the ageless Brent Celek still seeing his fair share of snaps, reaching the 750 yard milestone might be a close shave. But Carson Wentz will have to throw the ball to someone, and as we’ve seen in the preseason, Doug Pederson isn’t shy about rolling three-tight end sets out when the Eagles have the ball. I’m taking the OVER here, but just by a smidge: put me down for 800 yards from Ertz.
Total Receiving TD’s in the 2016 Regular Season: 4
Despite seeing 112 targets last season, Ertz only caught two touchdown passes, which was quite strange. Also strange: Ertz’s targets have increased (56% from Year 1 to Year 2, and 37% from Year 2 to Year 3) steadily, while his touchdowns have decreased by one with each subsequent season.
However, I’m inclined to chalk up Ertz’s slow start last season to his sports hernia injury, which kept him out of the preseason. I’m also inclined to believe Chip Kelly’s anemic offense did nothing to help any player, Ertz included.
I’m taking the OVER here. With a lackluster receiving corps, Ertz should see a similar amount of targets this year, if not a few more, and should catch around 75 balls again. He’s a big body in the red zone; with opposing teams preoccupied with stopping Dorial Green-Beckham, Ertz could see favorable matchups leading to plenty of scores.