Last week’s Philadelphia Eagles’ win over the Cleveland Browns was a thing of beauty. Largely, the statistical forecasts were in agreement and ended up being correct. Monday night’s road matchup against the Chicago Bears (0-1) presents a new test for Carson Wentz, and the forecasts aren’t quite sure what to make of it.
On to this week:
VEGAS (Bears -3, 59.8% win probability)
Last week: Eagles -4, 70% win probability
Vegas is giving the Eagles three points this week. Historically, three point underdogs have a 40.2% chance of winning. Chicago’s home field advantage is worth about 3 points (compared to the Eagles’ 1.7 point home advantage last week), making this game more of a push if it were to be held on a neutral field.
538 (Eagles, 51% win probability)
Last week: Eagles, 71% win probability
Last week’s victory moved the Eagles up a few Elo spots to 14 (Elo = 1504) from the 16th position. Chicago, on the other hand, is currently ranked 29th (Elo = 1430). The difference in Elo scores isn’t so great, but favors the Eagles, hence the slight 2% edge on the road. 538’s forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations, the result here is a virtual coin toss.
ESPN FPI (Bears, 59% win probability)
Last week: Eagles, 69% win probability
Last week’s forecast for the Eagles was nice, this week’s not so much. ESPN’s FPI is more in line with Vegas, giving the Bears a 59% chance of victory. This week’s “Matchup Quality” index is low (35 out of 100), so doesn’t expect to be an exciting, well-played affair (mathematically), but it’s better than Dallas at WASTEAM (28). This week’s highest quality matchup is Packers/Vikings (80).
Football Outsiders DVOA
This early in the season, Football Outsiders’ DVOA projection take into account preseason performance until there is enough regular season data to discount it. Otherwise, the Eagles would be the second ranked team in the league based on regular season alone, behind San Francisco. More realistically, the Eagles are currently ranked 19th in the league, and the Bears are 29th. Any forecast produced by FO would be in favor of the Eagles.
Here are some other notable win probabilities:
Dr. K NFL Forecasts – Eagles, 56.6%, 26-24 (Last week: Eagles, 65%, 27-21)
Dratings.com – Bears, 51.4%, win by 0.5 (Last week: Eagles, 69.6%, win by 7)
This week’s statistical forecasts are all over the place. Football Outsiders and 538 favor the Eagles while Vegas and ESPN don’t. Let’s call the modeling disagreement, “The Carson Wentz Effect.” And let’s assume the effect continues in Chicago.
(VP BIDEN >>>> POTUS)