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2016 NFL Mock Draft Grades: Scoring the Experts

Just how accurate are mock drafts?

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

As a whole, fans love mock drafts. They set expectations, potentially offer insight, and add a bit of excitement to the grind between free agency and the draft. We know that no one is ever going to have the perfect mock, but some are far better than others. As we have done in the past, we will again score many of the big name "experts" and those who work for big names. And to show how silly mock drafts as an industry can be, we always add the BGN Community Mock Draft. It usually holds it's own, and this year is no different.

The scoring system is simple yet brutal. Points are determined by the draft pick differential, for example mocking a player to go 7th who actually went 21st would be 14 points. Incorrectly predicting a trade up is double points, correctly predicting a trade down is half value. Correctly predicting a trade up or incorrectly projecting a trade down incurs no penalty or reward.

Two disclaimers this year. One was Laremy Tunsil. No one could have predicted that just before the draft started that a bitter ex-financial advisor to Tunsil would hack his Twitter and the chaos that ensued. However in the days before the draft, when real information is doled out by teams along with boatloads of disinformation, there were rumors that Ronnie Stanley could be the first offensive lineman off the board instead of Tunsil. That turned out to be true, and Tunsil's fall from the top of the draft was short lived, so for we will give no penalties.

The other is Myles Jack and Jalen Ramsey. Last year TJ Clemmings went much later than expected because of injury, incorrect mocks of him were given half points. This year there will be no handicapping. Jack and Ramsey's medical issues were widely known, and so-called "experts" are not going to be rewarded for not being an expert.

Mock Drafter Score Correct Worst Pick
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL 170 9 Jarran Reed 19th
Todd McShay, ESPN 179.5 9 Jonathan Bullard 29th
Rob Rang, CBS 191 7 Myles Jack 7th
Mike Mayock, NFL 192 11 Jarran Reed 21st
Bucky Brooks, NFL 206.5 5 Jarran Reed 16th
Mel Kiper, ESPN 208 11 TJ Green 26th
Peter King, SI 274 5 Cleveland trading up to 26th for Paxton Lynch
Pete Prisco, CBS 275 8 Bronson Kaufusi 31st
Charles Davis, NFL 275 7 Andrew Billings 31st
Dane Brugler, CBS 278 5 Jonathan Bullard 31st
Will Brinson, CBS 283.5 4 Connor Cook 31st
Don Banks, CBS 291 8 Connor Cook 29th
BGN Community 333 5 Le'Raven Clark 26th*
Greg Bedard, SI 371 6 Andrew Billings 27th
Evan Silva, Rotoworld 372 4 Andrew Billings 21st
Chris Burke, SI 380 4 Andrew Billings 27th
Cris Collinsworth, PFF 391 4 Andrew Billings 27th
Jared Dublin, CBS 406 6 Andrew Billings 27th
Doug Farrar, SI 425 3 Andrew Billings 25th

*tfrank9811 has been banned for bringing shame to BGN. It was nice knowing you.

Best mock drafter: Daniel Jeremiah, who also topped the charts last year. Jeremiah mocked four players who did not go in the 1st round, but he hit on or was within 5 points on 22 of his picks, once again giving him the edge over Todd McShay.

Worst mock drafter: Doug Farrar once again was the worst mock drafter, and that is with only a 2 point penalty for mocking Carson Wentz #1 overall. An automatic DQ was considered, but even if Farrar had gotten them right it wouldn't change much.

Biggest reach: Baylor DT Andrew Billings killed a lot of mocks. Seven people had them in their mock draft, he went in the 4th round. Perhaps too many people followed the lead of Cris Collinsworth, who correctly predicted the Rams trading up to #1 a month before they did, and published his final mock draft a week before the draft.

Most common correct pick after Goff and Wentz: DeForest Buckner. The 49ers having many needs plus Chip Kelly Duck Bias made him an easy pick.

Most common closest miss: Jalen Ramsey. Nine people mocked him to the Cowboys. If not for Jerry Jones, they would have been right.

Kudos: The BGN mock had five correct picks by draft position. Not bad for a mock that started before the trades and wasn't allowed to mock trades.

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