Crunching The Numbers: Week 13

I’ll admit, it was hard to watch Sunday’s game with much enthusiasm. The loss to the Packers completely drained the life out of me for this season. But I trudged on anyway like a good fan, curled up in pajamas on the couch while I streamed the game on my laptop, battling a hangover. I watched Carson Wentz’ worst performance of the year and fully realized how far this team has to go.

In times such as these, it’s important to remember that the foundation is there for the future. Carson, while still raw, also consistently displays why he is the long-term answer at quarterback. Schwartz is a good pass rusher and a good corner away from fielding a great defense. And Doug, who has become beleaguered during the three game skid, is still a coach I believe in.

But right now, the Eagles look bad. And the numbers certainly agree, as you will find out below. (A full archive of posts can be found here.)

Crunching The Numbers Rank Index, Week 13

Week 13 included some more shake-ups; Oakland has climbed all the way up to third in their impressive season and Baltimore rocketed up right behind them at fourth after their big in over the Dolphins. The rest of the top ten remained largely unchanged, but New England and Dallas continue to make a case that they are in a league of their own this season. As for the Eagles...

Why the Eagles are 14th

During their three-game losing streak Philadelphia has seen a rapid decline in very important metrics. Wentz’ yards per attempt is a dismal 6.0. The secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Carson is tossing a pick on 2.4% of his throws. Looking back to Week 4, when the Eagles were 3-0, those statistics looked like this: 7.4 yards per attempt, 6.2 yards per attempt allowed, 0% interception percentage. For a while the Eagles were playing well but finding creative ways to lose. Now, they are simply just bad.

Week 14 Reconnaissance: Washington Redskins

The last time these teams met, the Eagles were gashed on the ground by a well-planned rushing attack. This time, Kirk Cousins has begun to hit his stride again (7.8 yards per attempt) and the Eagles’ secondary is reeling. Do not expect the same ground-and-pound approach this time by Jay Gruden.

Offensively, the Redskins are playing good ball right now so if the Eagles want to win this game they will have to employ the clock-control strategy they found success with early on in the season. The good news is that the opportunity is there. The Redskins secondary is below average (7.0 yards per attempt allowed vs. an average of 6.8) as is their turnover rate (1.2 takeaways per game vs. 1.3 average). They also have not fixed their atrocious third down defense, which allows conversions 48% of the time. The Eagles’ biggest hope here would be to set themselves up with third-and-fives or less, but this may prove difficult given how often they are penalized. Overall, the winning formula this week is simple, but it’s hard to see them executing with the way they have been playing as of late.

Notes

The Los Angeles Rams have the second worst offense in the league (Cleveland), with a YPA of 6.0 and 4.3 rushing first downs per game... The Raiders are employing a ‘bend but don’t break’ strategy on defense, giving up 24.9 points per game but also forcing 1.8 turnovers per game... The league’s best defense belongs to Baltimore, who are averaging 1.8 turnovers per game and 6.1 yards per attempt allowed.