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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2015: Week 1

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Derik Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 1 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page.

2015 NFL WEEK 1

Green Bay Packers (-7) at Chicago Bears: You know things aren't looking so great for the Bears when they're opening the season at home as seven point underdogs. Chicago's defense could get shredded by Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense in this one. Jay Cutler doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Take the Pack. Pick: Packers -7

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) at St. Louis Rams: This line seems a little low. Division games can get tricky, and Seattle is on the road, but the Seahawks are clearly the better team here. Forget that they don't have Kam Chancellor; they'll probably be just fine. The Rams are apparently starting Benny Cunningham at running back so there will be a lot of pressure on Nick Foles to throw against Seattle's secondary. Good luck with that, Rams. Pick: Seahawks -4.5

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Buffalo Bills: The Colts have Andrew Luck going for them but Buffalo's defense should still be pretty good, especially with Rex Ryan at the helm now. I'm not sure how much I believe in Tyrod Taylor but he showed some positive flashes this summer. I have the Bills winning outright here, so taking the points is an easy call. Pick: Bills +3

Miami Dolphins (-4) at Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins does nothing for me, especially against Miami's defense. Washington is arguably the worst team in the NFL right now. I'm not sure how anyone could bet on them. Miami should really be favored by more here. Pick: Dolphins -4

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Houston Texans: The Texans' defense might be good, but Brian Hoyer does nothing for me. The Chiefs finally have at least one wide receiver who is capable of scoring touchdowns in Jeremy Maclin. Pick: Chiefs -1

Carolina Panthers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Yuck. I don't like this one. The Panthers should be the easy pick here because I don't want to buy that the Jaguars are really all that improved until I see it first. But the Panthers aren't that great either. Their starting wide receivers are freaking Philly Brown and ... Ted Ginn, Jr. I had to look up the second name. I'll probably regret this later, but give me the points. Pick: Jaguars +3

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-3.5): I don't like the Jets as more than standard home favorites here but I'm not about to bet on Josh McCown and the Browns on the road. Todd Bowles and Ryan Fitzpatrick should be able to hold on for the win here. Pick: Jets -3.5

Detroit Lions at San Diego Chargers (-3): That Detroit defense should still be good overall despite the loss of their defensive tackles. I'm not really sure how to feel about the Chargers. I think I like the Bolts to win this game, but the Lions could make it close. Pick: Lions +3

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): I'm not sure what to make the Saints after a weird 2014 season. Their defense was just awful, and the secondary is now really banged up to start this season. Taking New Orleans on the road doesn't feel like a great pick, so I have to go with the Cardinals here. Pick: Cardinals -2.5

Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos (-5): After ending the season on a low note, I'm thinking Peyton Manning gets off to a hot start here. The Ravens are hurting at wide receiver and could struggle to match Denver's scoring. Pick: Broncos -5

Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Oakland Raiders: The Bengals are much better at home than they are on the road. It's hard to count on the Raiders but the tandem of newly signed Aldon Smith, who is expected to play, and Khalil Mack is intriguing. Andy Dalton could struggle to deal with the rush. Screw it, let's take the Raiders. Pick: Raiders +3

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaners (-3): I believe in Marcus Mariota a lot more than I do Jameis Winston. Lovie Smith doesn't do a whole lot for me. Then again, the Titans just don't have a very talented roster. This could be an ugly one. I'll take the Titans, but I'm not feeling awesome about it. Pick: Titans +3

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): The Cowboys aren't really a great home team but they're rightfully a big favorite here. The Giants' defense is very uninspiring, especially without the presence of Jason Pierre-Paul. New York will also be without Victor Cruz and Jon Beason. Picking the Cowboys is an easy call. Pick: Cowboys -6.5

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Atlanta Falcons: The Eagles are only a three point favorite after looking flat out dominant in the preseason. The Eagles really match up well against the Falcons in this one. Philadelphia's pass rush should take care of Atlanta's suspect offensive line. The Eagles' offense should be able to carve up a Falcons defense that ranked terribly in 2014. Pick: Eagles -3

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at San Francisco 49ers: This is a little weird. I know the 49ers have had a horrible offseason and the Vikings got Adrian Peterson back, but I think the 49ers might be a little bit better than expected and I'm not totally buying the Minnesota hype until I see something out of them first. I could see the 49ers at least making this close. Pick: 49ers +3

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