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What to Expect from Nelson Agholor's Rookie Season with the Eagles

Did Jordan Matthews and the 2014 rookie WR class raise the bar for Agholor?

By Dave Mangels
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

We are spoiled. In 2014 rookie wide receivers were so prolific that rookie wide receivers for the next couple of years will be unfairly compared to them. In a ten year period from 2004-2013, there were 54 rookie WRs who had at least 500 receiving yards. In 2014 alone there were nine. The 2009 draft class was even more prolific, with 11 WRs finishing with over 500 receiving yards. And we are doubly spoiled by Chip Kelly’s offense, which has produced in both of Kelly's two seasons career years from veteran wide receivers. With expectations raised by last year’s rookies, and by Chip Kelly’s offense, of which Jordan Matthews was a part of both, what can we reasonably expect from Nelson Algholor this season?

First we must assume he sees significant playing time, a more than reasonable expectation considering the Eagles WR depth chart. And of course that he stays healthy. Looking at rookie WRs from 2004-2013 that started 12+ games, we find 24 player seasons:

Rk Year Tm G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%
1 Michael Clayton 2004 TAM 16 13 122 80 1193 14.91 7 74.6 65.6
2 A.J. Green 2011 CIN 15 15 115 65 1057 16.26 7 70.5 56.5
3 Keenan Allen 2013 SDG 15 14 105 71 1046 14.73 8 69.7 67.6
4 Marques Colston 2006 NOR 14 12 115 70 1038 14.83 8 74.1 60.9
5 Dwayne Bowe 2007 KAN 16 15 116 70 995 14.21 5 62.2 60.3
6 Eddie Royal 2008 DEN 15 15 129 91 980 10.77 5 65.3 70.5
7 Mike Williams 2010 TAM 16 16 129 65 964 14.83 11 60.3 50.4
8 Julio Jones 2011 ATL 13 13 95 54 959 17.76 8 73.8 56.8
9 DeSean Jackson 2008 PHI 16 15 120 62 912 14.71 2 57 51.7
10 Justin Blackmon 2012 JAX 16 14 132 64 865 13.52 5 54.1 48.5
11 Torrey Smith 2011 BAL 16 14 95 50 841 16.82 7 52.6 52.6
12 Roy Williams 2004 DET 14 12 118 54 817 15.13 8 58.4 45.8
13 Josh Gordon 2012 CLE 16 13 96 50 805 16.1 5 50.3 52.1
14 DeAndre Hopkins 2013 HOU 16 16 91 52 802 15.42 2 50.1 57.1
15 Larry Fitzgerald 2004 ARI 16 16 115 58 780 13.45 8 48.8 50.4
16 Jeremy Maclin 2009 PHI 15 13 91 56 773 13.8 4 51.5 61.5
17 Keary Colbert 2004 CAR 15 15 92 47 754 16.04 5 50.3 51.1
18 Greg Little 2011 CLE 16 12 119 61 709 11.62 2 44.3 51.3
19 Chris Givens 2012 STL 15 12 80 42 698 16.62 3 46.5 52.5
20 Donnie Avery 2008 STL 15 12 102 53 674 12.72 3 44.9 52
21 Robert Woods 2013 BUF 14 14 85 40 587 14.68 3 41.9 47.1
22 Marlon Brown 2013 BAL 14 12 82 49 524 10.69 7 37.4 59.8
23 David Gettis 2010 CAR 15 13 67 37 508 13.73 3 33.9 55.2
24 Reggie Williams 2004 JAX 16 15 54 27 268 9.93 1 16.8 50

We see little relation between reception and yardage with touchdown totals. This makes sense, if you’re starting a rookie at WR your offense probably isn’t good, coaches of bad teams tend to make conservative decisions such as running the ball a lot in the red zone, and you’re just generally bad in the red zone anyway.

Over a 16 game season, these 24 players averaged 59 rec 832 yds 5 TD. Jordan Matthews 67 rec 872 yds 8 TD last year was unsurprisingly slightly better in all areas. And Matthews played exclusively in the slot, and as a result only played in 65% of the Eagles offensive snaps. Agholor could claim a full time starting job, which is very much up for grabs after the departure of Jeremy Maclin and complete ineffectiveness of Riley Cooper, but the expectations should not change:

Rk Year Tm G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G Ctch%
1 A.J. Green 2011 CIN 15 15 115 65 1057 16.26 7 70.5 56.5
2 Dwayne Bowe 2007 KAN 16 15 116 70 995 14.21 5 62.2 60.3
3 Eddie Royal 2008 DEN 15 15 129 91 980 10.77 5 65.3 70.5
4 Mike Williams 2010 TAM 16 16 129 65 964 14.83 11 60.3 50.4
5 DeSean Jackson 2008 PHI 16 15 120 62 912 14.71 2 57 51.7
6 DeAndre Hopkins 2013 HOU 16 16 91 52 802 15.42 2 50.1 57.1
7 Larry Fitzgerald 2004 ARI 16 16 115 58 780 13.45 8 48.8 50.4
8 Keary Colbert 2004 CAR 15 15 92 47 754 16.04 5 50.3 51.1
9 Reggie Williams 2004 JAX 16 15 54 27 268 9.93 1 16.8 50

The average season by rookie WRs who started 15+ games was 60 rec, 835 yds, 5 TD, virtually the exact same stat line as those who only started 12+, they averaged just one more catch for three more yards.

An expectation of around 60 receptions. 850 yds and 6 TD for Agholor is reasonable, with the TD total being the most likely to be off.

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