Before Super Bowl 49 kicks off today (!), I thought we'd have some fun by looking at the spread for the biggest game of the year. You can find all of the Super Bowl betting information on the SB Nation odds page. Click here for a complete list of the Super Bowl 2015 prop bets. This is my suggestion when trying to beat Vegas when it counts the most.
Super Bowl XLIX Odds: Patriots (-2) vs.
The New England Patriots enter the biggest game of the year as slight favorites. The Patriots finished the regular season as the points per game leader with 30.4 overall. Their +155 point differential was the best in the NFL. The Patriots offense is running hot. Tom Brady is playing well and stopping Rob Gronkowski is no easy task. LeGarrette Blount is running hard and Shane Vereen is a weapon as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
New England's defense isn't too shabby either. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich are generating regular pressure. Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower are strong in the middle. Devin McCourty, Darrelle Revis, and Brandon Browner make up a talented secondary where even Patrick Chung is playing relatively well.
There's been a lot of talk about how the Patriots will play well given the frustrations caused by #DeflateGate. I don't really buy it.
Getting the Seahawks with points seems like an easy pick to me. They may have struggled in the NFC Championship Game, sure, but they've had two weeks of rest since then. That they could even win that game despite looking so bad says something about that team. Seattle finished No. 1 overall in Football Outsiders' final DVOA rankings while the Patriots are at No. 4.
The Seattle defense might be a little banged up but it's just so hard to be against them. Marshawn Lynch is averaging 5.5 yards per attempt in the postseason so the run game should be alive. Russell Wilson is coming off a bad outing against the Packers but there's no way he'll perform that poorly again. He happens to be my prediction for Super Bowl MVP.
I don't think the crowd factor will be irrelevant here. Last year it was Seattle and Denver playing in
New York New Jersey, which wasn't really an advantage for either side. This year it's clear that Seahawks fans are much closer to the site of the Super Bowl than those from New England. Check out this picture of all the "12s" that showed up to Arizona.
This one has the makings of a close game. The BGN community agrees; it's pretty much a 50-50 split. It's an even match-up between the two best teams in football. With that in mind, taking the points makes the most sense.
Pick: Seahawks +2
As for the over/under, that's set at 47.5. Last year I thought the over was a smart bet because the Broncos offense was bound to score points. While they only scored eight, Seattle scored 43. It's hard to expect that same kind of effort again, but I did predict a 28-24 win for the Seahawks, so I have to take the over yet again.