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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2015: Week 11

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

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Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 11 of the 2015 NFL season schedule kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 11 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page via OddsShark. My record so far this season is 58-71-4 after going 5-8 last week. I haven't had a winning week since ... too long.


New York Jets (-3) at Houston Texans: The Texans are coming off a pretty big win. Bill O'Brien somehow managed to beat the previously undefeated Bengals ... in Cincinnati. The bad news for the Texans is they'll be without Brian Hoyer. Also note that they're playing on a short week while the Jets played last Thursday so they've had extra rest. New York is the pick here. Pick: Jets -3

Denver Broncos (-1) at Chicago Bears: It's pretty surprising to see the Broncos are actually favored in this one. Their defense is good, sure, but the quarterback situation is not. It's hard to know what to expect from Brock Osweiler now that Peyton Manning is essentially out of the picture. The Bears are 4-2 in their last six games and both of those losses came by a combined six points. I like Chi-town to get this win outright. Pick: Bears +1

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins: The Cowboys only have two wins and they're somehow favored on the road. Oh, that's right, Tony Romo is back. The Dolphins aren't very good. I think Romo gets a win here and Cowboys fans will believe they can actually still win the NFC East. Pick: Cowboys -1.5

Oakland Raiders (-1) at Detroit Lions: I know the Lions just beat the Packers but I don't think the Raiders are getting enough respect here. They're the better team. Detroit is still bad. Pick: Raiders -1

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-5): Indy will be without Andrew Luck. That might not be a bad thing since Matt Hasselbeck has played well in his absence. The Falcons have looked like frauds after getting off to a hot start. They're 1-3 in their last four games with the sole win coming over the Titans. By three points. With Zach Mettenberger starting. I'm taking ATL anyway but I don't feel awesome about it. Pick: Falcons -5

St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-3): Nick Foles was so bad that he actually got benched for Case Keenum. The Ravens only have two wins this season but the NFL admitted they should have won last week. Baltimore has played teams close all year so I more confidence in them. Pick: Ravens -3

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): This spread seems way too big in favor of the Panthers. Sure, the Carolina is undefeated, but only four of their wins have come by more than eight points. I'll take the Panthers to win but I think Washington could make it close. Pick: Washington +7.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-6): Sam Bradford is out and Mark Sanchez is set to the get the start at quarterback. Sanchez *should* be able to run the offense, but turnovers are always an issue. Tampa Bay isn't very good, but it's hard to have a lot of faith in the Eagles right now. Pick: Buccaneers +6

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at San Diego Chargers: Andy Reid's Chiefs are enjoying a three game win streak. They've played good football in recent weeks. I like the Chiefs to get this done. Pick: Chiefs -3

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1): It's not very often that Aaron Rodgers is an underdog. The Packers have lost three straight games, including an embarrassing loss to the lowly Lions at Lambeau last week. The Vikings are playing better football, so it's tempting to take them, but I just can't see Rodgers losing four in a row. Pick: Packers +1

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-13): Blaine Gabbert going up against Seattle's defense seems like a disaster waiting to happen. Pete Carroll already managed to beat Jim Tomsula by 17 points earlier this year. Still, 13 is a big number. I think I like the 49ers to cover because Seattle isn't exactly a scoring machine. Pick: 49ers +13

Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-5): If the Bengals couldn't beat the Texans in Cincy, imagine what the Cardinals are going to do to them. Keep in mind the Bengals had a short week to prepare for this one. Pick: Cardinals -5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5): The Pats have this one in the bag. Pick: Patriots -7.5

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is running a $1.25M fantasy football league on Sunday. First place wins $100,000. Join now!

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