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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2015: Week 4

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat the odds.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 4 of the 2015 NFL season schedule kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 4 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat the odds. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season is 28-17 after going 11-4 last week. I don't want to jinx things, but I'm off to a pretty solid start.


New York Jets (-2) vs. Miami Dolphins: It should be noted that this game is taking place on a neutral field. These two teams are playing in London early on Sunday morning. The Jets seem like an easy pick here. The Dolphins have looked awful this season, even in their one win against Washington. New York, meanwhile, has looked mostly solid. Pick: Jets -2

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5): How is this line not bigger in favor of the Bills? The G-Men are getting way too much undeserved respect here. The Bills look good and they're especially tough at home. New York's defense is bad and Buffalo will be able to take care of their offense. This is an easy call. Pick: Bills -5

Oakland Raiders (-3.5) at Chicago Bears: So, so weird to see the Raiders favored by this much in a road game, but that's how bad things have been in Chicago. The Bears are arguably the worst team in the NFL right now so it's hard to have any confidence in them. Alshon Jeffrey will miss this game so that makes matters even tougher for the home team. I have to take Oakland. Pick: Raiders -3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9): This is a tough one. Andrew Luck's status is unclear. Even if he does play, he's not 100%. And the Colts haven't really looked that great when he's started. On the other hand, the Jaguars are pretty bad and they're on the road. Division games can tend to be a little closer than expected, so I'll take Jacksonville to cover here but probably still lose. Pick: Jaguars +9

Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6): Julio Jones is virtually unstoppable right now. The Falcons' offense a whole is pretty hard to stop. Ryan Mallet isn't going to be able to outscore them. Pick: Falcons -6

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There's no team that has had an easier path to 3-0 than the Panthers. They played the Jaguars on the road before playing the Texans and the Luke McCown Saints at home. And now they're probably going to be 4-0 because the Bucs are pretty bad. Pick: Panthers -3.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-4): The Bengals are pretty good at home so it's easy to pick them to win. But I think the Chiefs will be able to keep this one close. Don't let me down, Andy Reid. Pick: Chiefs +4

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Washington Redskins: While the Eagles' defense looks legit, Philadelphia's offense does not. Sam Bradford is struggling to throw the ball with accuracy and even when he does his receivers are dropping passes. Perhaps Bradford can get back on track against a lackluster Washington secondary. Or maybe not, because bad weather could be a factor in this game. This could be an ugly one. I don't feel great about this pick either way. For now I'll say the Eagles win but Washington covers. Pick: Washington +3

Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7): No need to overthink this one: Josh McCown is bad and the Chargers are at home. Pick: Chargers -7

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-7): Interesting to see how this line opened up at 4.5 and now swung to 7 in favor of Denver. Peyton Manning isn't doing much to inspire confidence but the Broncos' defense looks really good. I'm counting on Wade Phillips to get the job done. Pick: Broncos -7

Green Bay Packers (-9) at San Francisco 49ers: Aaron Rodgers is going to steamroll this crumbling 49ers team. Pick: Packers -9

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5): The St. Louis offense isn't looking so hot. Traveling to the desert will probably result in a loss. The Cardinals have been smoking bad teams so far, so there's no reason to think that won't continue right now. But once again this is a division game and I can't help but feel the Rams will find a way to stay within a score. Pick: Rams +7.5

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-3): Weird line. The Saints are terrible but so is Brandon Weeden. I just can't trust New Orleans to beat a team right now, so I have to take Dallas here. Pick: Cowboys +3

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Detroit's offense is struggling with predictably (sounds familiar, huh?) and the Seahawks appear to be back on track after shutting out Chicago last week by a final score of 26-0. Detroit's defense might be able to keep this game in reach, especially if Marshawn Lynch can't play, but I'll trust the Seahawks to take care of business. Pick: Seahawks -9.5