clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Picks Against the Spread 2014: Week 4

New, comments

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 4 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 4 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season: 19-24-1. (Last week's picks.)

Week 3 was better to me. I finished above .500 at 7-6-1. I'm slowly rebounding after a slow start.

2014 NFL WEEK 4

Miami Dolphins (-4) at Oakland Raiders: This game is actually taking place at Wembley Stadium in London, England, so there's no real home-field advantage. I don't like the idea of betting on the Raiders but the Dolphins haven't looked so hot following their Week 1 win over the Patriots. I don't love this decision but I'm taking the points here because I'm just not confident in Miami and their weird quarterback situation. Pick: Raiders +4

Green Bay Packers (-2) at Chicago Bears: Uh, what exactly have the Packers done to deserve to be road favorites here over Chicago? Yeah, I'll wait. Give me Chi-town. Pick: Bears +2

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-3): The Bills are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Houston is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. I'm tempted to take the home favorite here but perhaps those pesky Bills will manage to keep it close on the road. Pick: Bills +3

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-9): I'm a little surprised this spread isn't even bigger. The Titans have looked pretty terrible ever since Week 1 win over KC. Meanwhile, the Colts tend to be pretty good at home when Andrew Luck is starting. Have to take the home favorites. Pick: Colts -9

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3): Losing by three scores to the Steelers at home in a prime-time game was not a good look for the Panthers. I'm thoroughly convinced Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith, formerly of the Panthers, is going to do everything he can to beat his former team. Ravens win this one. Pick: Ravens -3

Detroit Lions (-2) at New York Jets: Don't feel as good about the Lions on the road as I do at home. That said, I don't really feel good about the Jets at all. The Lions defense looks good and the same can't be said for the Jets offense. That said, Detroit is now missing Stephen Tulloch and may even be without star wide receiver Calvin Johnson (questionable). Still, I'll go with the favorites. Picks: Lions -2

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9): I would say the Steelers being nine point favorites is too much but this Buccaneers team has just looked horrible in every phase. A change at quarterback from Josh McCown to Mike Glennon isn't going to change that. Pitt it is. Pick: Pittsburgh -9

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-14): There's just a weird feeling about this one. The Chargers are the kind of team that will beat good teams but drop games against lesser competition. A lot of people took San Diego in suicide leagues this week and I think that's a fine pick because the Chargers will win this game. I have to take the favorites because the Jaguars have just been so bad. Since scoring 17 first half points against the Eagles, the Jaguars have been outscored 27 to 119. Pick: Chargers -14

Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5): Somehow the 1-2 49ers are getting more love than the average home team against a Philadelphia squad that is 3-0. In the Chip Kelly era, the Eagles are 5-1 ATS as road underdogs. Let's have some fun with numbers. Second half points: Eagles 74 (1st), 49ers 3 (32nd). Fourth quarter points: Eagles 40 (1st), 49ers 0 (32nd). I can't see how the Eagles don't at LEAST keep this one close. Pick: Eagles +4.5

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Minnesota Vikings: Wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here. The Falcons are just not good on the road: 1-7 in 2013 with their one win coming in overtime against Buffalo. The only problem here is the Vikes are banged up and rookie Teddy Bridgewater is starting at quarterback. The safer bet here would be to take the favorites but I'm feeling risky on this one. Pick: Vikings +3

New England Patriots (-3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: I'm not very high on the Chiefs but the Patriots just haven't looked all that great this season. New England looked unimpressive against the Raiders... at home. On the other hand, Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Let's go with the Pats. Picks: Patriots -3.5