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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2014: Week 14

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 14 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 14 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season: 80-92-2. (Last week's picks.)

I finished above .500 last week with a 8-7 record. Still having a bad season. But that won't stop me from continuing to look foolish. Let's get to the picks.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3): Both of these teams are a little better than their overall record and playoff positioning indicates. Both teams rank in the top 10 of Football Outsider's DVOA stat. The Ravens rank fourth while the Dolphins rank sixth. This a tough one to call. Miami is on short rest and their home field advantage isn't outstanding so I'll risk taking the Ravens with the points because I expect a close game. Pick: Ravens +3

St. Louis Rams (-3) at Washington Redskins: The Rams aren't getting as much respect as they deserve here. Washington is a mess and they will be without DeSean Jackson. Pick: Rams -3

Houston Texans (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Don't be fooled by Jacksonville's comeback win over New York last week. This is still a really bad team. The Texans are the easy play. Pick: Texans -6

New York Giants (-1) at Tennessee Titans: Yuck. Both of these teams are terrible. I hate that I have to pick here. Pick: Giants -1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-10): The Buccaneers are bad. They're 2-10. But the line is set perfectly here because they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points since early October. Tampa Bay will lose this one but they'll find a sneaky way to cover. Pick: Buccaneers +10

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-10): The Saints seem to be hitting a stride while the Panthers are just bad and haven't won a game since early October. The terrible New Orleans defense shouldn't hold back the Saints in this one considering they have home field advantage. Pick: Saints -10

Indianapolis Colts (-4) at Cleveland Browns: Brian Hoyer is still starting for the Cleveland Browns. Are you really going to take Brian Hoyer over Andrew Luck? The Browns aren't as good as their winning record indicates. The Colts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as road favorites. Pick: Colts -4

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5): The Bengals probably shouldn't have even won against the Buccaneers last week but they did. It was ugly. Meanwhile the Steelers came off their bye week only to be stomped by the Saints, who aren't typically a great road team, at home. Cincy hasn't looked impressive lately but consider they also played three straight road games. The Stripes have only lost one home game since late 2012. The Steelers have been outscored 57-16 in their divisional road games so far in 2014. Pick: Bengals -3.5

New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-6): Does anyone really trust the Jets to cover on the road? The answer should be no. Pick: Vikings -6

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos (-10): Not enough respect for the Bills here. Sure, Peyton Manning totally outclasses Kyle Orton, but the Bills defense is actually pretty good. Expect a closer game than this line has you believing. Pick: Bills +10

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) at Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals are tough to beat at the nest but they are falling fast with Drew Stanton at quarterback. The Chiefs are desperate for a win after two losses. Andy Reid will get the job done in the desert. Pick: Chiefs -1

San Francisco 49ers (-9) at Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are coming off a 52 point loss. The 49ers are coming off a three point performance. Who will win in the Battle of the Bay? Probably the 49ers. Pick: 49ers -9

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (-0): How about this? The Eagles-Seahawks game has been moved to a pick 'em. When this line originally opened with the Eagles as 1.5 home favorites I thought they were being a little underrated (or Seattle a little overrated). So you can imagine how I feel about this pick now. The Eagles have won 10 straight regular season games at home and are outscoring opponents by an average of 16.4 points in that span. The fewest points the Eagles have scored at home this season is 27. The most points the Seahawks have scored on the road is 27. Something has to give. Pick: Eagles -0

New England Patriots (-4) at San Diego Chargers: Tom Brady may have been out-dueled against Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay but never count out Touchdown Tom. The Patriots will rebound this week and take care of business in San Diego. Pick: Patriots -4

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-13): Aaron Rodgers is going to rip that Falcons defense to shreds. They won't stand a chance. Pick: Packers -13

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