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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2014: Week 10

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Thomas B. Shea

Before Week 10 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 10 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season: 54-66-2. (Last week's picks.)

I did OK last week. I'm patting myself on the back for really nailing the Patriots outright pick. I finished at 7-5. Finally, a week above .500.

NFL WEEK 10

Kansas City Chiefs (-2) at Buffalo Bills: I had my doubts, as did many, about Andy Reid's Chiefs heading into this season. They started off the season slow but have been playing pretty well since then. Still, I'm not sure I like KC enough to be road favorites in Buffalo. The Bills aren't a pushover at home. Pick: Bills +2

Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Falcons absolutely crushed the Bucs earlier this year by a score of 56-14, but that game was in Atlanta. Seems like forever ago, huh? Both teams have been bad since. This is far from an attractive play. Atlanta is a terrible road team and the Bucs are just pretty terrible. Pick: Falcons -3

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (-10): The Ravens still have one of the best point differentials in the league and the Titans are awful. Easy pick. Pick: Ravens -10

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at New York Jets: I could really see the Steelers randomly blowing this one because I still don't completely trust them. With that said, I have to take them as the favorites. Their offense has been red hot in recent weeks. Pick: Steelers -6

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-6): The Saints are good at home and have won three out of their last four games. Meanwhile the Niners are 1-2 on the road and have lost two straight games. The points are kind of a tempting pick because the Saints have looked shaky at times but it's hard to trust the 49ers even more. Pick: Saints -6

Dallas Cowboys (-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars: London game. I made my case why I think the Cowboys playing Tony Romo is not a good decision. I'm skeptical Romo will be able to play well through the pain, especially when he's getting hit often by a Jaguars team that can pressure the quarterback. Pick: Jaguars +7

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions (-2): The Dolphins looked really good in their 37-0 Week 9 win over San Diego. Their offense will be tested this week by a top-ranked Detroit defense. The Lions are coming off the bye and have home field advantage so I like them here now that Calvin Johnson is back. Pick: Lions -2

Denver Broncos (-10.5) at Oakland Raiders: Major kudos to the Raiders for covering the +15 spread last week but I don't think they'll be able to cover this week. The Raiders will continue to be winless yet again. Pick: Broncos -10.5

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-7): It feels a little dangerous to bet against this Rams team. They've pulled off some sneaky upsets and have kept games closer than expected at times. I'll roll the dice and take St. Louis to cover here. Pick: Rams +7

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-10): The G-men aren't scaring anybody. That defense is pretty bad. Seattle has been far from overly impressive this season but I don't know how anyone could bet on New York here. Pick: Seahawks -10

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): The Bears have been better on the road this year than they have at home. They desperately need this game. With that said, it's hard to see them stealing a win at Lambeau. Pick: Packers -7.5

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-7): The Eagles are a stone cold lock in this one. The Panthers have the league's seventh worst point differential and just haven't been impressive. Carolina has been outscored on the road this season by an average of 31.8 to 21. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 8-0 in their last eight regular season home games. The Birds have outscored their opponents 268-147 in that span, an average of 33.5 to 18.4 per game. Pick: Eagles -7

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