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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2014: Week 12

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 12 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 12 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season: 65-80-2. (Last week's picks.)

I did BAD last week. I finished at 4-9, so I'm having a pretty terrible season. But that won't stop me from continuing to look foolish. Let's get to the picks.


Cleveland Browns at Atlanta Falcons (-3): Josh Gordon is back. The Cleveland Browns aren't exactly reliable but they tend to play teams tough. I think it'd be hilarious if the Falcons went 6-10 with their wins only coming in division games so in accordance with hopes, I have to take Cleveland to cover here. Pick: Browns +3

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles (-11): Hm, big line. The Eagles are coming off a big loss because they were absolutely crushed in Week 11. The Titans, meanwhile, showed some fight in their three-point loss against Pittsburgh. Still, the Titans aren't a good team. They're playing on the road on short rest and the Eagles have been dominant at home. The Birds have won 9 regular season games in a row in Philly. They've won by an average of 15 points in those games. Pick: Eagles -11

Detroit Lions at New England Patriots (-7.5): The Detroit Lions defense is legit, that's for sure. But this is a New England offense that has been unstoppable. The Patriots don't lose in New England, so it's a matter of whether the points make sense here. I'll say they do. Pick: Patriots -7.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-1): I don't trust the Bengals on the road as nearly as much as I do when they're at home. With that said, I don't really trust the Texans at all. I like Cincy as the slight underdogs. The Stripes are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Pick: Bengals +1

Green Bay Packers (-9) at Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Rodgers is on fire right now. He's not as invincible as he is when he's at Lambeau, but I'd still have a hard time betting against him. Pick: Packers -9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6): I imagine even Tampa Bay's terrible offense will find a way to move the ball against that terrible Chicago defense. I'll take the Bears to win this game but the Bucs will find a way to cover. Pick: Buccaneers +6

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14): The Jaguars are thoroughly awful and the Colts have home field advantage. Really no need to over-think this one. Pick: Colts -14

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7): The Cardinals have the best record in football and yet they're seven point underdogs. Interesting. Sure, the Cardinals are without their starting quarterback. Drew Stanton is far from a world-beater. But seven points? The Seahawks have looked far from invincible this season, and that includes games played in Seattle. Pick: Cardinals +7

St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers (-5): The Rams are a sneaky team. They don't have a good record but they play teams tough. I expect them to be a little more vulnerable on the road, however. St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs. Pick: Chargers -5

Washington Redskins at San Francisco 49ers (-9): The 49ers' biggest win at home in their new stadium this season has been by five points. San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home favorites. Call me crazy but I think Washington covers here somehow. Pick: Washington +9

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-7): The Broncos are coming off a bad road loss in St. Louis where they only scored seven points. The Dolphins have a very good defense, but how will they hold up on the road? Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs. Pick: Broncos -7

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-4.5): This game is going to take place in Detroit due to the snow in Buffalo. The Bills lose their valuable home field advantage but they should still be able to take care of these Jets. Pick: -4.5

Dallas Cowboys (-4) at New York Giants: For no other reason than to be bold, I'll take the G-men to win outright here. Pick: Giants +4

Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): I'm really not sure why the Saints are favored above the three point standard. They're being overrated here. Ravens with the points is an easy pick. Pick: Ravens +3.5

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