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NFL Picks Against the Spread 2014: Week 11

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Las Vegas.

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Before Week 11 of the 2014 NFL season kicks off, I thought we would have some fun by taking a look at the spreads for this week's round of games. (Click here for NFL Week 11 picks without regard to the spread.)

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. My record so far this season: 61-71-2. (Last week's picks.)

I did OK last week. I finished at 7-5 yet again, so it was another week above .500.


Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-0): This isn't an easy pick. Seattle has looked shaky this season and Kansas City has been red hot. Not to mention the Chiefs have home field advantage. The Seahawks haven't faced a quality opponent since losing to the Dallas Cowboys in October, when they lost at their own stadium. Still, there's something I don't quite trust about Andy Reid's Chiefs. Pick: Seahawks (+0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5): The Bucs are just really bad and they especially don't stand a chance on the road. Pick: Washington -7.5

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3.5): The Texans have made a quarterback change: Ryan Mallett is now taking over for Ryan Fitzpatrick. Houston is coming off their bye but Arian Foster has been ruled out. The Browns have taken care of business at home this season (4-1) so I like them here. Pick: Browns -3.5

Denver Broncos (-10.5) at St. Louis Rams: The Rams have played opponents tougher than their 3-6 record indicates, but I don't think Denver should have much trouble with them. Pick: Broncos -10.5

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-4.5): The Bears have just looked awful in recent weeks and haven't really been that impressive all season. The Vikings are at least likely to cover here. Pick: Vikings +4.5

San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at New York Giants: The 49ers are a weird team. They're not easy to trust but they're more reliable than that terrible Giants defense. I don't see how the G-men will find a way to stop San Francisco from running the ball down their throats just like Seattle did. Pick: 49ers -4.5

Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Carolina Panthers: One of my golden rules is to never take the Falcons on the road. They're just a horrible away team. With that said, the Carolina Panthers are just a straight up horrible team right now. The Panthers can't protect Cam Newton and Atlanta should be able to put up points on that terrible Carolina defense. The Dirty Birds are still alive in the terrible NFC South. Pick: Falcons -1

Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints (-7.5): Yikes. Remember when Cincy was 3-0 and people were talking about how they were the best team in the NFL? Seems like forever ago. The Bengals have been outscored 86-40 in three road games this season so the home team is an easy pick here. Pick: Saints -7.5

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5): The Bolts are coming off a bye. Oakland is coming off a huge home loss to the Broncos. Though I certainly don't think the Raiders will win this game, I do think they'll play it close. I have to take the points. Pick: Raiders +10.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-6): The Eagles have gone 12 straight games without losing by more than five points. This feels like a lock to be a close game between two evenly matched teams at the top of the NFC. The points are a really attractive play here. Heck, I'd even take the Birds outright. Pick: Eagles +6

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-0): The Carson Palmer injury has thrown a big twist into Arizona's season. The Cardinals are very good at home but the Lions have a very good defense. Drew Stanton doesn't inspire a lot of confidence despite the fact he's 3-1 in starts this season. I think I have to take the Lions here. Pick: Lions +0

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-3): I'm a little surprised by this line. The Patriots are coming off their bye week after putting a beat down on the Broncos in Week 9. New England getting points feels like an easy pick. Pick: Patriots +3

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) at Tennessee Titans: Look what I wrote about the Steelers in my picks post from last week: "I could really see the Steelers randomly blowing this one [to the Jets] because I still don't completely trust them." Unfortunately, I still bet on Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, I'm also doing it again this week. Pick: Steelers -6

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