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2013 QB class: The 26-27-60 rule and other objective measures


The 2013 QB class is certainly nowhere near the pedigree and hype of the 2012 class. Not only did that group come in with high expectations, they largely delivered with 3 rookie QBs leading their teams to the postseason.

So perhaps the hype and performance of the 2012 class is overshadowing this current group and making them look worse than they really are. Obviously, a lot of the evaluation has to be done by combing through the tape and talking to these guys... but are there objective measures that can help see who might actually fit in with that 2012 class better than we think?

There are, kind of. These are certainly not rock solid predictors of NFL success, but these particular metrics do have a pretty good track record.

First is the old 26-27-60 rule. QBs who score at least 26 on the Wonderlic test, started at least 27 games in college, and completed at least 60 percent of his passes tend to do well at the NFL level. As MTD points out, the formula predicted success for Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub and Matt Ryan. Meanwhile it predicted failure for high picks such as Ryan Leaf, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Tim Couch, David Carr, Vince Young and JaMarcus Russell.

Of last year's class, the QBs that met the requirements were Andrew Luck, Brandon Weeden, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles & Kirk Cousins. RG3 was 2 points shy on the Wonderlic of meeting the rule as well.

As for the QBs who meet the rule this season? We won't really know until the guys take the Wonderlic at the combine, but here is who meets the other requirements.

Geno Smith, Zac Dysert, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones & Ryan Nassib.

Guys like Tyler Wilson, Mike Glennon & E.J. Manuel fell just one college start shy, so they are pretty much in there as well especially since they all played in more than 27 games.

Another objective metric would be Gil Brandt's formula. Here's how he puts that together.

1) Air yards, which is defined as the number of yards a ball travels from the point of release to the point of the catch.
2) Rusher points, which measures the quarterback's effectiveness against four- and five-man pass rushes.
3) Total passing statistics, which includes things like passer efficiency, touchdowns, interception ratio and completion percentage.

Brandt assigns them scores for these three areas and also gives bonuses for height and weight.

Player Ht Wt School Score
Geno Smith 6-3 214 West Virginia 93
E.J. Manuel 6-5 238 Florida State 88
Landry Jones 6-4 218 Oklahoma 79
Ryan Nassib 6-3 228 Syracuse 72
Matt Barkley 6-2 230 USC 58

Not a big surprise to see Geno Smith at the top of the class, but E.J. Manuel at #2 and Landry Jones at #3 are. Most projections have those guys going after the likes of Nassib, Barkley and even guys like Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon.

Glennon specifically scored low on Brandt's measure due the high amount of sacks he took and his sub 60% completion percentage. Brandt also has major questions about his accuracy.

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