Week 4 NFL Picks: Upsets could abound this weekend

Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us and we've got the real refs back! Not that that helps anyone that bet on the Packers last week... 68% of bets on Monday night were on the Packers and it is estimated that $300 million went from bettors to the bookies on that one blown call.

Let's try to make that up this week.

Browns at Ravens - Baltimore is a huge 12 point favorite at home in a game that has all the makings of a blowout. Pick: Ravens

Panthers at Falcons - No shock that the Falcons are a touchdown favorite at home here. They're rolling, while the Panthers were embarrassed at home last week. I'd expect Carolina to show more fight this time, but their secondary is no match for the Atlanta passing game. Pick: Falcons

Patriots at Bills - The Pats are 4 point road favorites here and I actually like them a lot. At 1-2 they have to feel some desperation. Pick: Patriots

Vikings at Lions - Detroit is a 6 point favorite at home, which is somewhat surprising given how they've struggled this season and Minnesota has been surprisingly good. I like this to be a close game and see this as much upset special. Pick: Vikings

Chargers at Chiefs - KC is a 1 point home favorite here and 60% of the money has come in on San Diego's side. I like the Chiefs to win at home though. Pick: KC

Seahawks at Rams - Seattle comes in as 2.5 point road favorites, but won't have the replacement refs on their side this time. I like the Rams to win at home in an upset. Pick: Rams

49ers at Jets - The Niners are 4 point road favorites here, which surprises me. San Fran got beat last week by the Vikings and are now on the 2nd of back to back road games. They've actually stayed in Ohio this week to avoid making 3 cross country trips in a week. It worked for them last year, when they came down from 20-0 to beat the Eagles by a point. That said, the Jets offense is terrible. Pick: 49ers

Titans at Texans - Houston is a huge 12 point favorite at home and just might be the best team in the league right now. Still, that's a massive number. I actually like the Titans to cover. Pick: Titans

Raiders at Broncos - Big rivalry game where the home team is favored by 6.5. I actually like that the line has stayed under a TD. Take Denver here. Pick: Broncos

Dolphins at Cardinals - I'm very surprised the Cardinals are only 5.5 point favorites here. Given that 65% of the money has come in on them, the line could move. I like it at 5.5 though. Pick: Cardinals.

Bengals at Jaguars - The public sees this as the most lopsided game of the week with Jags as a 1 point home dog. Over 70% of the money has come in on the Bengals. I'm trusting in the wisdom of the crowds. Pick: Bengals

Saints at Packers - Who would have thought that this week 4 matchup would feature a winless Saints team vs a 1-2 Packers squad? Those would have been some long odds... As this one stands, the Pack are a pretty big 9 point favorite at home and most of the money has actually come in against them. Almost 60% have bet on the Saints. That said, I can see the Packers just frothing after having a game stolen last week and the Saints defense isn't likely to be able to do anything to stop them. Pick: Packers

Redskins at Bucs - Tampa is a 1.5 point favorite at home and the money has come in almost exactly even. One thing to note though is that Tampa is 3-0 against the spread this year. Pick: Buccaneers

Giants at Eagles - The one we've been waiting for... Philadelphia is a slim 1 point favorite here and almost 65% of the bets have come in on the Giants. However, the Eagles covered the spread 53% of the time in 10,000 simulations. Pick: Eagles

Bears at Cowboys - Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite at home here and neither team has inspired a lot of confidence amongst bettors. The money is coming in pretty close. In these situations I just go with the home team. Pick: Cowboys