Hello Everybody,
Now that week 1 is officially in the books, a lot will be made of certain players having either great games or bad games. From a fantasy perspective this can lead to great value plays and really big mistakes. Lets take a look at some of this weeks studs and duds and see what their long term value looks like:
QBs:
Robert Griffin III: 24Pts
While I think in terms of actual NFL play and passing production he will regress, for fantasy purposes because of his running numbers I think hes a top 8/10 QB the rest of the way.
Matt Ryan: 31 Pts
When I posted my preseason rankings a lot of people wanted to talk about Matt Ryan and I was asked numerous times about whether he could be a top 5 QB, and while I dont think he gets 30+ each week I think he is a 20-30 point QB and I think if you drafted him its not the time to trade him.
Mike Vick: 15 Pts
Vick will get better. I know that Im clearly biased on the subject, I really think he was just rusty and will regain form. The biggest risk with Vick is health but if hes healthy he should be starting for your team.
Mark Sanchez, Alex Smith and Blaine Gabbert: 20,17,17
I dont think any of these results are legit and I would sell high immediately if someone wanted them.
RBs:
Steven Ridley: 20 Pts
I think this is the best example of Sell High. The Pats got up big in this game and Shane Veeren was out. Those 2 factors were the biggest reason I think he played so well. However with that being said this week the Pats take on the Cardinals so I would wait for him to have another big week before I trade him.
Alfred Morris: 21
I wish I could trust a Redskin RB because Morris looks really good, but at some point in the year, probably at the worst possible time, you will get Shanahanned and Morris will be sat for no real reason. If he wasnt a Redskin I would like him but to me I would sell high while I can.
CJ Spiller: 22
Plain and Simple, I think hes a top 6 back while Fred Jackson is out and a top 20 back whens Jackson is healthy. He is a big play waiting to happen and in PPR leagues catches the ball a lot. I think a lot of owners will be trying to "sell high" on him however I think this value will get much higher over the next few weeks.
Chris Johnson: 4
He looked awful in this game, but they got down early and stopped running the ball plus he got some work outside the backfield in the receiving game. I think hes a nice buy low however I dont think he goes back to being a top 5 RB until we see more.
Michael Turner: 3
I may look really dumb in a few weeks but Im ready to have a fantasy funeral for Michael Turner. In a game when the Falcons were leading for most of it he managed only 3 points. In the words of MIke Ditka: "Cmon Man." I would sell him to any owner who thinks they are "buying low" and not think twice about it.
WRs:
For WRs a lot of times random WRs have great weeks because of one play. Too many of them to go over here so Ill think to what I think are the bigger storylines. I think Olgetree is completely legit and should be your top pickup of the week. Julio Jones and Roddy White will have reverse numbers a lot of weeks buy low of Roddy if you can and sell high on Julio. Dont buy any of the Jets WRs that game was too crazy and the BIlls D is largely too blame. Lastly, if Greg Jennings is out thursday, I think Randall Cobb is a nice flex/WR3 and will have 80 yards and maybe a score.
Ill be answering any questions in the comments. Ask Away!