Week 16 NFL Picks against the spread

There actually is a Saturday night game this week, so we'll start with that one.

Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+3.5) - My initial gut was to go with the Falcons here, but the trends and simulator like the Lions to cover. Pick: Lions

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-1) - This is a very hard to understand game. All the trends point to a Cowboys cover here, but 57% of the Vegas money is coming in on the Saints. Pick: Cowboys

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-12.5) - Hate lines like this so much. Pick: Packers

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (+7) - Colts are a decent team and the Chiefs stink, but history tells us that 7 point home dogs typically do well. Pick: Chiefs

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-4.5) - Pick: Dolphins

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-1) - Greg McIlroy starting here really makes this hard to pick. Pick: Jets

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (+7) - Basically the same scenario as the Chiefs. The team may be bad, but bad teams cover big spreads at home pretty often. Pick: Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) - Pick: Steelers

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) - Pick: Bucs

Oakland Raiders at Carolina Panthers (-9.5) - Pick: Raiders

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5) - Absurd line. Really like the Jags to cover here. Pick: Jaguars

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-9.5) - Best RB matchup of the year... maybe decade. Pick: Vikings

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-13) - Very tough one because of the size of the line. What's worse, all the trends are split. Pick: Broncos

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) - Interesting to note that the Bears & Cards have almost the same record against the spread this year. I fully expect Chicago to let me down here. Pick: Bears

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+1) - Really just picking the winner here. Pick: Giants

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (pick) - Just a straight pick-em here. Pick: Seahawks