Week 9 NFL picks against the spread

If we picked games based on which team's fans were the best at dressing up, I have to admit the Saints would be 16-0.

Onto our week 9 NFL picks

Chiefs at Chargers (-9) - This is a very tough game to pick because the line is so high the Chargers just aren't convincing enough to rely on them blowing anyone out, even Chiefs. So I like KC to cover here. Pick: Chiefs

Broncos at Bengals (+3.5) - It's interesting to see a 3-4 team as a home dog to a 4-3 team. The Broncos are getting treated like a juggernaut, but really have been one. Still, they are trending up and Cincy has only managed to cover the spread twice this year. Pick: Broncos

Ravens at Browns (+3.5) - Baltimore is 2-5 against the spread this year, while Cleveland is 4-3-1 so they've been more trustworthy. Almost 70% of the money is coming in on Baltimore, but I like Cleveland to cover at home here. Pick: Browns

Cardinals at Packers (-11) - After Arizona's sorry showing last week, it's somewhat surprising that this line is only 11, but last week we learned why huge lines are so dangerous in the NFL. The Packers were 14 point favorites last week against the Jaguars and while they won comfortably, they did not cover. 11 is still big, but I think its reasonable enough to go with the Pack at home. Pick: Packers

Bears at Titans (+3.5) - All the trends favor Chicago here and over 70% of the money is coming in on the Bears. Pick: Bears

Dolphins at Colts (+1) - A matchup of 2 rookie 1st round pick QBs in Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck has the Colts as a surprise home underdog. These teams are both 4-3 and Tannehill is actually questionable, so I really struggle with why the Colts would be underdogs. Pick: Colts

Panthers at Redskins (-3.5) - This should be a fun matchup of the guy who last year's rookie of the year against the guy who has a good shot at this year's award. Trends really favor the home team here. Pick: Redskins

Lions at Jaguars (+4) - The Jags have only won one game this year, but have actually covered the spread in 4 of their 7 games. Still, there isn't a simulation or trend model that doesn't have Detroit covering here. Pick: Lions

Bills at Texans (-10) - This is a big line, but we're looking at the best running team in the league vs the worst run defense. Love the Texans here. Pick: Texans

Buccaneers at Raiders (-1) - Tampa has been a bit of a bettors darling this year going 5-2 against the spread. That said, this is a tough spot for them going across the country on the 2nd of back to back road games. This is a tough spot, but I like the Bucs to overcome the dysfunctional Raiders. Pick: Buccaneers

Vikings at Seahawks (-4) - Trends really favor Seattle here. Pick: Seahawks

Steelers at Giants (-3.5) - The trends and simulators heavily favor the Giants in this game, plus its worth noting that the after-effects of Hurricane Sandy has left the Steelers without hotel rooms. So they'll actually leave Pittsburgh the day of the game and come back after. Pick: Giants

Cowboys at Falcons (-4) - I'm kind of surprised this line is only 4. It started at 5, then money came in on Dallas and forced it down to 4. That's a great value IMO. Pick: Falcons

Eagles at Saints (-3) - Money is coming in pretty split on this game, but I was surprised at how heavily the simulators favored New Orleans. Both teams looked terrible last week, but the Saints are still dangerous enough at home that they have been forecasted to cover 60% of the time. Pick: Saints