First, can the Eagles trade Kevin Kolb?
There are 5 issues at play there:
1) First and foremost, there will be no trades until a new collective bargaining agreement is reached. Per Adam Schefter:
"Until there is a new agreement, there will be no trades. Washington cannot trade Donovan McNabb or Albert Haynesworth; Denver cannot trade Kyle Orton; no trades of existing contracts will be permitted until a new agreement is signed -- whenever that is."
Schefter didn't mention Kevin Kolb, but yes, he means Kevin Kolb, too. So if the Eagles have any intention of exploring Kolb's value around the league, they'll need the new CBA to be done with a little more urgency than a McNabb 2 minute drill. From here on out, this entire acticle assumes a CBA deal gets done prior to the draft.
2) Should Kevin Kolb compete with Michael Vick for the starting job in camp? Nope. No further explanation is necessary.
3) Kolb's contract situation: Any team interested in Kolb should be mindful that Kolb is set to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Last year, that was a pesky wrinkle that made trading Donovan McNabb difficult, who was also in the final year of his contract. Since McNabb had no interest in being traded in the first place, he had some leverage in that he could make it clear to various suitors that he did not wish to sign a long term deal with their organizations. This severely hurt his trade value with those teams. However, Kolb's situation is much different. For one, Kolb wants to start, and has made it clear that if he can't start for the Eagles, he would like to be traded. Obviously, any team that would pony up a high draft pick to acquire Kolb would want to sign him long term. Since Kolb is only scheduled to make $1.392 million in 2011, he should also be eager to get a long term deal very soon. There's no real obstacle there.
4) Michael Vick's contract situation: Michael Vick is of course an unrestricted free agent. However, there's absolutely no way on Earth the Eagles will let him get away. They'll likely look to eventually get a longterm deal done soon, and they'll use the franchise tag on Vick while those talks continue.
5) Michael Vick's style of play: Anyone that watched Eagle football this year saw how many shots Michael Vick takes. That isn't going to change. Michael Vick is always going to look to make plays with his legs. That's what makes Michael Vick... Michael Vick. Conversely, opposing defenses are always going to try to hit him (and hit him hard) as much as they possibly can. These are all obvious statements. If Kevin Kolb were to stay in Philly for the 2011, he'd clearly be the best backup QB in the league. That's an awesome luxury. However, if he can provide real value in return via a trade, it's a luxury the Eagles will be willing to sacrifice should the right compensation present itself.
Do the Eagles have leverage in trade talks?
Absolutely. The Eagles can (and usually do) play the "We're not interested in trading (fill in the player)" game, to give the impression that you better come with a strong initial offer or we won't even begin discussing it. That strategy can fail miserably in the event teams around the league call your bluff and you're left with a player you have no use for because you overplayed your hand. However, in the Eagles' case, because of Michael Vick's penchant for taking too many big hits (as noted above), having the best backup QB in the NFL isn't a bad thing at all. He'd be unhappy in that role, but the Eagles aren't just going to hand him over to avoid having an unhappy player in the locker room, and Kevin Kolb doesn't strike me as the "team cancer" type.
How good is Kevin Kolb?
Well, why not just go to the video tape? Here some of Kevin Kolb's performances on film (Falcons, 49ers, Redskins and Cowboys game tape missing), with Tommy Lawlor's game reviews that he wrote at some point during the week after each game (in blockquotes). If you don't read Tommy's game notes after each game (which can be found here), then shame on you. Tommy wrote all of the game reviews, with the exception of the Ravens game:
Game reviews:
KOLB vs RAVENS
It's very difficult to judge Kolb on this one. He was coming in after halftime against a Ravens team that had probably one of the two best defenses in the NFL in 2008. Donovan McNabb was completely ineffective against them throughout the entire first half, and thus, the benching occurred. It's noteworthy that the Ravens more than had an answer for the Eagles' offense that day, and Kolb was essentially thrown to the wolves. It was his first meaningful regular season action in his career, under extremely difficult circumstances. He actually provided a spark at one point during this game, when he led an impressive drive in which he went 5-5 for 53 yards... before throwing the pass that everyone remembers - the Ed Reed interception that was returned 108 yards for a score the other way.
KOLB vs SAINTS
Good game. Got sloppy at times and made some mistakes, but did well overall. Can you imagine if I told you last week that Kolb would throw for 391 yards and a pair of touchdowns? Not many people would have believed that. Kolb did make some mistakes, but they were due to lack of experience, not skill or talent. You can coach him up on the areas that need work. I was pleased with his pocket presence. He took some big hits, but still got the pass off and the ball was on target. He threw some passes away when it was clear no one was open. The one sack he took was a blitz up the middle where the defender was untouched. You just have to eat that ball, which Kolb did.
One area that many fans have worried about is Kolb's arm strength and ability to throw the ball on intermediate or deep routes. I thought he did very well in this area. He threw an excellent ball on the long touchdown catch by DeSean Jackson. That pass was accurate and had some zip. Kolb threw a couple of good passes to Jason Avant in the middle of the field. He hit Brent Celek on a seam route for a good gain. We had 5 pass plays of longer than 20 yards. We had a couple more than went 19 yards. Kolb doesn't have an elite arm, but he showed enough arm strength to run an NFL offense and make the defense cover the whole field.
I thought Kolb made good reads and accurate throws. He was comfortable running the offense. Some young quarterbacks look nervous and it shows in their play. Kolb did fine. Until we got to the red zone, that is. Kolb struggled down there. All of a sudden things get compressed and you have to be very precise. Reads have to be made quickly. Throws have to be on target. The quarterback also has to get the ball out quickly so as not to give defenders a chance to bat the ball down at the line of scrimmage or make a play on it near the receiver. Kolb was indecisive and his reads were slower than you'd like. These are typical mistakes from a young quarterback. The one touchdown that he threw in the red zone came on a fourth down play where Kolb scrambled and relied on his playmaking instincts. He saw Avant open in the back of the endzone and got him the ball.
KOLB vs CHIEFS
Kevin played even better than last week. He wasn't flawless, but had a darn good game (24-34-327, 2 TDs in the air and 1 on the ground). Kevin was generally accurate. He made good reads and threw the ball well. His passes had good velocity. He was deadly on 1st downs. Through 3 Qtrs he was 10-12-170 on them. That's impressive. Kevin seems very comfortable in the shotgun. He can drop back, but doesn't look as smooth. He threw the ball well on a few intermediate routes. He hit DeSean for a gain of 43. He hit Celek for his TD down the field. Kevin threw off his back foot a couple of times. Both passes were caught and had some zip, but that can be a bad habit to get into. I thought his best throw was a pass to Celek on 1st/GL from the 9. He threw the ball quickly. It was accurate. It had zip, but was catchable. Brent got it easily and put us down a the 2. Simple play, but that's the kind of Red Zone passing you need. Be decisive, be on time, and be on target. Kevin saw the field pretty well. There was one play where Celek was uncovered in left slot. Kevin dropped back and immediately got the ball to him. That was a gain of 15 or so. Sounds easy, but how often do you see something obvious before the snap and the QB goes elsewhere? You yell at the TV "how could you not see that?".
My biggest problem with Kolb right now is that he's erratic on some throws over the middle. This cost us last week on a couple of 3rd downs. Ditto for this week. The problem he has is throwing to his targets and not leading them. When guys are crossing the field you have to throw to the spot where they will be, not where the player is. Young QBs have to adjust to how fast the guys are moving and get the ball out in front of them. Kevin must work on this. I'm not sure if this is his fault, but there were at least 2 plays where he and the WR were not on the same page. Kevin threw to Reggie on the left side. The ball went one way and Reggie cut to the other. That was almost picked off. Later Maclin and Kolb looked confused on a pass to the right side. I don't know who was at fault, but this needs to be ironed out. You don't want to leave points on the board due to confusion and you sure as heck don't want a turnover because of it.
KOLB vs PACKERS
Pretty much a nightmare start. Things started innocently enough. Hit Maclin for 5 yds on his first completion. That was pretty much the highlight of the 1st half. Kevin finished 5-10-24. Not great numbers, to put it mildly. He never looked comfortable on the field. I'm not sure what the problem was, but he was just off. He gave us the worst of both worlds. On some plays he was hesitant to pull the trigger and held the ball too long. Other times he threw the ball too quickly instead of making good reads. He was at his worst forcing the ball to DeSean, who was heavily covered for most of the game. Kevin almost had 2 passes picked off.
The biggest thing Kevin did wrong was simply not just running the offense. That's all Vick did when he came in. Drop back, find the open guy and get him the ball. Vick's scrambling certainly helped, but Kolb should have been much more effective than he was. It almost felt as if he was trying to be too perfect. You don't have to do that with the caliber of skill players we have. Just execute. On time, on target.
KOLB vs REDSKINS
(Game tape unavailable)
Came into the game in the 2nd Qtr. Finished 22-35-201, with TD, INT. Didn't play well, but I don't agree with the notion that he was awful. He led us on a pair of scoring drives. He had us in FG range on another drive when the RB fumbled. He had us in position to steal a win at the end. Kolb frustrated all of us with the short throws to be sure, but it wasn't as if the offense was 3 & out over and over. That to me is "awful" QB play. Kevin wasn't good, but I've seen starters go 2 for 17. That is awful. There is a difference in not good and completely incompetent.
He did a good job of taking what the defense was giving him. Moved the chains. The problem is that we have one of the best trios of WRs in the league and Kevin wasn't getting the ball to them. He didn't challenge the defense down the field until the 4th Qtr. Can't have that. At some point you have to move the ball with at least intermediate throws.
Best throw of the game was his TD to Brent Celek. Brent was over the middle and right between two defenders. The umpire was also in the area. Kevin gunned the ball in confidently. Had another strong moment on 3rd/10 on his first full drive. Stepped up in the pocket and threw a strike to Avant. Jason was able to get 17 yards on the play and move the chains.
Worst moment was the start of his first full drive. Bobbled the snap. Dropped the ball. Looked shaky when he picked it up and then had his pass deflected. Luckily, it fell incomplete. That just looked bad. You're not going to inspire confidence in other players with plays like that. Made a poor read on the 2-point conversion attempt. Mac was wide open over the middle. Kevin threw to Avant, who was covered. That proved to be a crucial mistake. If we cut the lead to 17-14 that changes the last 4:10 of the game.
The final drive wasn't pretty. Kevin could have been picked off several times. He was forcing the ball, which had to be done. Made a poor throw to Celek on a seam route. Brent was open, but Kevin put the ball to the wrong side. Brent turned and got his hands on the ball, but couldn't hold on. Bad pass. Gotta hit that guy when he's open like that.
KOLB vs 49ERS
(Game tape unavailable)
Good game. 21-31-253, TD. 3 rushes for 17 yds. Led us to a pair of TDs. Threw the ball pretty well. Had 4 pass plays of at least 20 yards. All were throws where the ball went at least 20. Had a couple of short passes to Shady that got good RAC yards.
I thought Kevin looked like a good starting QB. He wasn't nervous or awkward at all. He moved up in the pocket when it was needed. He eluded the rush on a couple of plays. He distributed the ball pretty well. It didn't seem like he was locking on to any one player or side of the field. There was a part of the game where several 3rd down passes went to Celek. I'm not sure if that was by design or not. Threw for Celek down the middle on 3rd/9. Brent was well covered. My initial reaction was that Kevin was dumb to force that. The replay showed that Kevin made an amazing throw that went right past the LB and into Brent's hands. He simply didn't hold onto the ball. Willis had his hand on Brent's arm, but it looked like Brent still should have made the grab.
Specific notes:
Moved up in the pocket and hit Avant over the middle for a 1st down inside the 10.
Scrambled to the right late in the half and got off an excellent throw to Celek along the sideline.
Started the game 12-14-123, TD.
Got sacked late in the half and fumbled. 3rd/3. Had to get that ball out quickly.
Hit Maclin down the left sideline for 41 yds just after halftime.
Threw deep for Maclin a couple of plays later, but he was covered and the ball was incomplete.
Made a good throw to Chad Hall over the middle to convert on a 3rd/short play in the 3rd Qtr.
We went for it on 4th/1 in the mid-3rd Qtr. Kevin got pressured and had to throw off his back foot. He put the ball behind Celek and Brent wasn't able to make the grab.
Scrambled for 19 yds on 3rd/18. Dropped back. Didn't see anything open so he started to run. Used ball fakes, even when he was 10 yards downfield. Never really got to a full sprint, but he got our 1st down.
Had a 3rd/5 pass batted down in 4th Qtr.
Opened a drive in the mid-4th with a pass to Maclin over the middle for 22 yards.
KOLB vs FALCONS
(Highlights only)
Absolutely terrific. 23-29-326. 3 TDs. 1 INT on a deflected pass. QB rating of 133. Kevin ran the show. He got the ball to his playmakers and they produced. You want vertical? Pass plays of 20 or more yards: 5-5-221 with 2 TDs. Not bad. He didn't force the ball. He was calm and confident on the field. He moved up in the pocket when needed. Kevin largely had great protection, but he made sure to take advantage of it. We scored 14 points with DeSean, 17 without him. We also missed 2 FGs in that stretch. I think it was important that we didn't go in the tank once DJax went down. Kevin came through when we needed him to. He made some "momentum" throws:
* Hit Maclin for 12 yards to open drive after long PR. Last drive had fizzled after injury. We needed a boost.
* Hit Maclin for TD on 3rd down to end that drive. Excellent throw. Had to get the ball around a DT and to a tightly covered receiver.
* Hit Avant for 21 yards when we were backed up at our own 3. We had 28-10 lead, but needed a play.
* Hit Celek in traffic for 14 yards on 3rd/5. That kept drive going.
* Hit Celek on the right side for a gain of 24 on 3rd/7. That set up the late FG and truly sealed the game.
One of the ways you stop the other team from coming back is to keep moving the chains. You can also score some more points. Kevin did those things.
Misc Notes:
* McCoy's first run appeared to be an audible by Kevin. We shifted from Pro Set to I-form.
* Hit Mac for 17 yards to open the 4th drive.
* Mis-read a play in the late 1st Qtr. Got the ball to Schmitt in the flat, but he was tackled for a loss. Kevin may have expected a heavy blitz. ATL rushed 5, but the blocking was good.
* Had a QB sneak on 3rd/inches. Got almost a whole yard.
* Tried to hit Celek down the seam late in the half. Ball was too flat. MLB batted it and DB picked it off. Kevin was called for horse-collar tackle of DB.
There isn't really much to say critical of his game. You could be mad at the throw that led to DeSean's injury, but that wasn't a horrible pass. Maybe the biggest gripe is that Kevin never had to face any true adversity in the game. We led 14-0 just a few minutes in. He had little rush to deal with. The defense played well so it wasn't a shootout.
Personally, I'm excited that he played so well. Kevin has now played 11 straight quarters as the starter. That's the most in his young career. He's getting better and building confidence. He'll need everything he's learning for the game down the line when things don't go so well.
KOLB vs TITANS
Up and down game. 26-48-231. 1 TD, 2 INTs. This was the best defense he's seen all year. There were times when Kolb looked really good. There were some plays he'd like to have back. His best pass of the game was a throw to Riley Cooper in the red zone. We had a 3rd and 3 situation. Kolb threw the ball behind Cooper and to the outside, but that was exactly where the ball was supposed to be. Cooper was able to turn away from the defender and the pass was right there for him to snatch. Hit Cooper on a crossing route on 3rd/GL for a TD. Simple play, but it was well executed and Kolb made the correct read. Kevin did a good job on the final drive of the half. The clock in the stadium wasn't working so he had to go off instinct and then talk to ref when there was a dead ball. He led us to a FG. Kolb ran for a first down on 3rd and 14. That makes makes two out of the last three weeks where he's bailed us out on 3rd and long with a scramble.
One of the plays Kolb would like to have back was a pass inside the 10-yard line where he threw to a covered Jason Avant while Garrett Mills was open over the middle. That should have been an easy touchdown. Early in the game we had a rollout pass to Celek on the backside. He was open, but the throw was off target. That would have been a nice gain. Late in the game Kolb forced the ball to Celek on 3rd/4. That was broken up by Witherspoon. There was a pass in the RZ that Kolb forced to Maclin. Verner almost picked it off. 3rd/7 in the 4th Qtr. Kolb moved up the middle. Had room to run, but threw for Cooper. The pass was behind him and Riley went to the ground as he tried to make the catch. He was open. Or Kevin could have scrambled. He only had one defender to beat.
Kevin threw a careless pick-six to end the game. It isn't a big deal, but it sorta bugged me. I'd rather see him dump a ball to a receiver for 5 yards than throw something into double coverage and then to have the defender run it back.
One of the criticisms of Kolb is the underthrown deep balls. It was a windy day in Nashville. Kevin doesn't have the kind of explosive arm to just throw and not have the wind affect him. Also, he didn't always have a clean pocket. Kevin can be effective when he can really get his lower body involved. My biggest problem is that he's got to anticipate downfield plays quicker. Throw when the guy is about to come open. That way the ball has less space to travel and less time in the air. He will get better as he learns the subtleties of throwing deep. Kevin has to overcome his physical limitations by being as technically sound as possible.
KOLB vs COWBOYS
(Game tape unavailable)
Sloppy game. I was hoping Kevin would come out and play well. I wasn't looking for any new QB controversy or anything. I simply hoped Kevin would have a good day since he's been a good soldier about the demotion. That didn't happen.
Forget about the raw numbers, 18-36-162. Kevin just didn't look good. His passes were inconsistent. He was under a lot of pressure and didn't handle that well. Kolb looked very rusty. He hadn't really played since the Titans game so I expected some rust, but not this much. The game doesn't affect my opinion of Kevin. I still think very highly of him. It just wasn't much fun to sit through. Not having a good OL or starting skill players is going to be rough on any QB. The weather didn't help matters. Still, I was hoping for better.
Summary - Kevin Kolb has had 7 career NFL starts. He was absolutely fantastic in two of them (Chiefs, Falcons), as he took home NFL Offensive Player of the Week honors in both games. Let's not minimize that accomplishment. In fact, let's take a look at the math on that one. There are 32 NFL teams. There are 53 players on every NFL roster. Let's say for the sake of argument that 25 of those players on every 53-man roster play on the offensive side of the ball. 25 offensive players * 32 teams = 800 offensive players in the NFL. Kevin Kolb was voted the best player among those 800 offensive players in the league... twice... in his first five career starts, both wins of course. That is nothing to sneeze at.
He was very good in two other starts (Saints, 49ers), one a loss, one a win.
He was average in one relief appearance (Redskins), and bad in one relief appearance in an impossible situation (Ravens), both losses.
He was bad in three starts (Packers, Titans, and Cowboys), 2 of those being "real losses," one sort of a "no decision" in what was essentially an exhibition game with the Eagles' JV team playing the Cowboys' varsity team.
Those 4 good-to-great starts, quite simply, are enough to intrigue other teams around the league. Being a great NFL QB takes time. A few outliers aside, it's extraordinarily rare to see QBs have immediate success at this level, and most of the greats experienced similar starts to Kolb's - some bad outings, with a few unmistakable flashes of great QB play mixed in. It remains to be seen if Kolb can become more consistent if given the opportunity to be a franchise QB, although I believe he will.
Before we get to Kolb's worth, what were some other QBs' worth in trades over the last 5 years?
Just for fun, I compiled a chart of all the trades involving QBs over the past 5 years. The chart also includes teams that traded up in the draft and selected a QB in the first round. While it's a nice measuring stick, I don't believe this is a great indicator of Kolb's worth. Things change from year to year. The number of teams league-wide that badly need a QB in 2011 could be vastly different from the landscape of the league in 2007. Plus other things like player contract considerations and coaches' job stability are also in play, as in... Does the QB have a team friendly contract? Does the coach or GM think he's on the hot seat, and doesn't care about trading picks for immediate gratification to get quicker results and help save his job? The point here is... Don't read too much into the following graph:
| Year | Player | Compensation |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Jay Cutler, Part I | 15th overall pick, 68th overall pick |
| 2007 | Matt Schaub and the 10th overall pick | 8th overall pick, 39th overall pick, 2nd round pick in 2008 |
| 2007 | Brady Quinn | 36th overall pick and a 1st round pick in 2008 |
| 2008 | Brett Favre | Conditional pick (became a 3rd round pick in 2009) |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 26th overall pick, 89th overall pick, and 173rd overall pick |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | 17th overall pick, 52nd overall pick, Kenyon Coleman, Brett Ratliff, and Abram Elam |
| 2009 | Jay Cutler, Part II | 18th overall pick, 84th overall pick, 1st round pick in 2010, and Kyle Orton |
| 2009 | Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel | 34th overall pick |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman | 19th overall pick, 191st overall pick |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow | 43rd overall pick, 70th overall pick, 114th overall pick |
| 2010 | Donovan McNabb | 37th overall pick, conditional pick in 2011 (4th that could become a 3rd) |
| 2010 | Jason Campbell | 4th round pick in 2012 |
| 2010 | Charlie Whitehurst and the 60th overall pick | 40th overall pick, and a 3rd round pick in 2011 |
Who are the QB prospects that will likely be drafted in the first round?
There are likely to be a minimum of 3, maximum of 5 QBs that will be drafted in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft. The top 5 prospects:
1) Blaine Gabbert
2) Cam Newton
3) Jake Locker
4) Ryan Mallett
5) Christian Ponder
Below, I'll identify 14 teams that could potentially trade for Kolb. There's a perception that these 5 QB prospects mentioned above will eliminate 5 of those teams' needs for a franchise QB, but that's not necessarily the case. There are a number of teams that could go QB in an early round that already have a "franchise QB" in place. The Eagles obviously went that route when they drafted Kolb himself.
Obviously, drafting a QB in the first round can be a great move (Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, etc), or it can be a disaster (JaMarcus Russell, Joey Harrington, etc.). If you trade for Kolb, you have a very good idea of what you're getting. Here are the QBs that were drafted in the 1st round over the past 5 years, and how they've fared:
| Year | Player | Pick # | How'd that pan out? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 1 | So far, so good |
| 2010 | Tim Tebow | 25 | Surprisingly, so far so good |
| 2009 | Matthew Stafford | 1 | Injuries have stalled a promising start |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez | 5 | Mildly impressive on film, but the results are there |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman | 17 | Young up-and-comer |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | 3 | Fringe Top 10 NFL QB, annoying undesevred nickname |
| 2008 | Joe Flacco | 18 | I really don't know what to make of him |
| 2007 | JaMarcus Russell | 1 | Never thought there'd be a disaster worse than Ryan Leaf, but… |
| 2007 | Brady Quinn | 22 | Oof |
| 2006 | Vince Young | 3 | Letting buffoonery get in the way of his talent |
| 2006 | Matt Leinart | 10 | Chose partying over football |
| 2006 | Jay Cutler | 11 | Polarizing. Huge arm, still hasn't completely put it together. |
So what teams might be interested, and what compensation should the Eagles expect in return?
There are no shortage of NFL teams that desperately need a QB. Poor QB play in the NFL has become an epidemic, with almost half the league likely looking to improve that position this offseason. Here are a list of the teams I think could potentially have interest in trading for Kolb, and what I think the Eagles would receive in return if a deal got done. I think the rough value of Kolb is a mid-1, but obviously that can change depending on interested teams' draft positions.
(DISCLAIMER - I'm not suggesting the following teams should give up what I think the Eagles should get in return. I'm just saying that the Eagles shouldn't settle for less if they decide to pull the trigger). These teams are in order of likelihood to trade for Kolb, and as always, it only takes one to fall in love with the guy:
1) Cardinals - Interesting team here. Their defense stinks, but they have some things in place on the offensive side of the ball. A good QB would put them right back on top of the punchline NFC West. Last offseason they were ready to roll with Matt Leinart, who didn't even make the team. Instead, they cycled through a pu pu platter of garbage (Derek Anderson, Max Hall, John Skelton, and Richard Bartel). For those of you keeping score, Anderson had the best QB rating among those 4 QB's, at an astoundingly bad 65.9. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Cardinals' 1st round pick (5th overall) is unrealistic. The Cardinals' 1 in 2012 might get it done if they throw in a mid-round pick (perhaps a 3) this year.
2) Vikings - He who shall not be named is gone (good riddance), and although Joe Webb had a nice game against Philly, let's not kid ourselves and call Webb an answer at QB. Here's another team that has a ton of pieces in place. Bigtime RB and a good defense. Kolb could be an excellent fit in Minnesota. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Vikings' 1st round pick (12th overall). The Eagles LOVE drafting in the 12-20 range. They traded up to 15 in 2003 to take Jerome McDougle, they traded up to 16 in 2004 to take Shawn Andrews, they stayed put in the first round (a rarity for the Birds) at 14 in 2006 and took Brodrick Bunkley, and they traded up to 19 in 2009 to take Jeremy Maclin in 2009, and they traded up to 13 last year to take Brandon Graham. If they deal with the Vikings they'll absolutely demand that 12th overall pick. Maybe the Eagles will have to throw in a 3 or 4 with Kolb to get it done, but that 12th overall will be included.
3) 49ers - Alex Smith actually wasn't awful in 2010, but "not awful" isn't good enough. Obviously he's far from the player the Niners hoped he'd be when they drafted him first overall in 2005. It's been 6 years, and Smith's rookie contract is up. It's overdue time for a fresh start for Smith, and a fresh face at QB in San Fran. Aside from Alex Smith, if I'm new coach Jim Harbaugh, I don't have any interest in going into 2011 with Troy Smith or David Carr as my starting QB either. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? Just like the Cardinals' example above, the Niners' 1st round pick (7th overall) is probably a longshot. However, the Niners' 2nd round pick is way down at 45th overall, which just isn't going to do it as the centerpiece of a trade. The Eagles might consider a 1 next year, and perhaps a 3 in 2011.
4) Titans - Vince Young is done in Tennessee, and Kerry Collins is 38 years old. Before they started trotting guys like Rusty Smith out there as their starting QB, this is a team that was 5-2 at one point during the 2010 season and was looking like a serious Super Bowl contender out of the AFC. It should be noted that Kolb had a bad game against the Titans in 2010, which might have hurt his value had Jeff Fisher remained the Titans' coach, but now that's less of a factor. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Titans' 1st round pick (8th overall), again, probably won't happen, but the Titans pick 2nd round pick is 39th overall. Since they'd be trading him out of conference the Eagles could settle for the 39th overall pick, a 2 next year, and a late round pick.
5) Browns - Maybe the Browns believe Colt McCoy is the long term answer in Cleveland. I think people got a little carried away with his 2 consecutive wins over New Orleans (Drew Brees) and New England (Tom Brady) earlier this year. Impressive wins for sure, but it should be noted that the Browns won those games with the run game, as McCoy threw a combined total of 35 passes in those 2 wins. Any time McCoy was asked to throw more than 20 passes in a game this season, the Browns were 0-6. Furthermore, it should be noted that Browns GM Tom Heckert holds Kevin Kolb in high regard. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Browns' 2nd rounder (36th overall), their 2 next year, and a late round pick.
6) Bengals - I had the Bengals on this list even before Carson Palmer decided he wanted out of Cincinnati, albeit a little lower. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? Sort of like the Titans above, perhaps they settle for the Bengals' 2nd round pick (36th overall), a 2 next year, and a late round pick.
7) Dolphins - Chad Henne turns 26 in July and it may be too early to give up on him, but it's hard to ignore his terrible 2010 season in which he showed no improvement whatsoever from the previous year. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? Miami's 1 (15th overall). Thanks for the 2nd rounder for AJ Feeley by the way guys.
8) Jaguars - I've always thought David Garrard is an underrated QB. However, he turns 33 in February, and Jags owner Wayne Weaver has publicly criticized Garrard in the past. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Jags' 1 (16th overall).
9) Panthers - Andrew Luck's decision to return to Stanford must have been devastating to Carolina. He would have been a no-brainer pick at #1 overall. Panthers GM Marty Hurney has said publicly that QB is their #1 need. While that might just be gamesmanship from Hurney, it's hard to disagree with his statement. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Panthers stupidly traded their 2 in 2011 to the Pats and drafted Armanti Edwards. OOPS! The Eagles would look for their 1 next year, and perhaps their 3 in 2011, but the Panthers have to stop trading away future high picks at some point though, right?
10) Raiders - Kevin Kolb doesn't strike me as the kind of QB Al Davis likes. Kolb doesn't possess the kind of vertical, always-down-the-field type arm that they've tried to win with in the past. Ironically, Kolb is more like the QB they had the most success with this past decade, Rich Gannon. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Raiders don't have a 1 this year because they traded it to the... ah hem... Pats again... for Richard Seymour. This just in - The Pats are smart, but I digress. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Raiders 1 next year, 3 this year.
11) Seahawks - Matt Hasselbeck is an unrestricted free agent this offseason, although they recently gave up a nice chunk of change for Charlie Whitehurst (see graph above). What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Seahawks' 1 (25th overall), and the 2nd pick in the 4th round (originally held by the Broncos).
12) Redskins - Could the Eagles (GASP!) trade a QB within the division? McNabb's days in D.C. are all but over. They'll be shopping, although I'd have to imagine they'll be a little gun shy when it comes to dealing with the Eagles this time around. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Redskins' 1 (10th overall).
13) Bills - Ryan Fitzpatrick began to develop nicely last season, but let's not get carried away there. Maybe the Bills will let it ride with Fitzpatrick. Maybe they won't. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? The Bills' 2 (34th overall), a 2 next year, and a late round pick.
14) Broncos - Denver has a new coach in John Fox, and 2 QB's in Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton. The Broncos are thought to be shopping Orton, which would indicate they're ready to go forward with Tebow. I don't see a great fit here, but I'm including them on this list anyway, just to cover my ass. What should the Eagles get in return if a deal got done? It would have to be a 3-team deal in which they dealt Orton to a 3rd team and obtained Kolb. I'll decline to venture a guess on this one.