Tight End options

by JasonB on Jan 7, 2008 9:40 PM EST in Philadelphia Eagles News

I've said a few times this year that the Eagles are in need of another offensive playmaker. I always specifically say "playmaker" because I don't particularly care in what form it comes. I know everyone in this town is always hyped over getting a WR, but frankly I'd be just as happy if not moreso with a great TE... The Eagles got decent production out of their top 2 WRs this year but got next to nothing from the TE position. For an offense that moved the ball but couldn't score in the red zone, it's not that hard to guess that if we had a healthy and productive TE we may have been able to score a whole lot more. I think I heard a stat the other day that all of LJ Smith's 15 career TDs have come in the red zone.

The problem I've come to realize is that there really won't be a great TE to be had this year. The draft isn't very deep at the TE position and it's not likely we'd get an immediate impact guy from there anyway.

The one name getting thrown around as the "top" FA tight end on the market is Dallas Clark from Indy. Most implications are that Indy won't let him leave, but he will be an unrestricted free agent in a weak FA TE class. I have no interest in Dallas Clark. His numbers over the past few years aren't all that more impressive than LJs. Before this year he caught around 30 balls a year for 4 or 5 TDs. In the last 2 years LJ was catching 50-60 balls for the same amount of TDs. This year Clark had a career year and caught 58 balls for 11 TDs, but how much of that is thanks to Peyton Manning? More than just a little I'd expect. Clark also lead the NFL in drops this year, certainly not something we need more of... I don't think Clark is a bad player, I just have a sneaking suspicion that LJ Smith would be just as productive in the Colts offense if not moreso. Clark has also been dogged with the same doubts about his blocking as LJ has in his career(although I think both have improved). Therefore, there's no need to drop boatloads of money on Clark to lure him out of Indy.

The other options at TE in free agency are far less appealing... After Clark and LJ there's a noticeable dropoff in talent. The best of the rest would appear to current Saints TE and former 49er Eric Johnson. Johnson had one good year in 2004 and even in that year he only caught 2 TDs. Otherwise he's a guy that catches 30-40 balls a year averaging a dismal 3.4 per catch. I'd sooner take my chances with Brent Celek & Matt Schoebel.

The rest of the list is barely worth mentioning...
Stephen Alexander - Denver Broncos
Bryan Fletcher - Indianapolis Colts
John Gilmore - Chicago Bears
Marcus Pollard - Seattle Seahawks
Ben Troupe - Tennessee Titans
Jermaine Wiggins - Jacksonville Jaguars
Kris Wilson - Kansas City Chiefs

Jermaine Wiggins has had a couple good seasons in ~~Jacksonville~~ Minnesota the past couple years but has never shown himself to be any kind of red zone threat.[editor's note, by BleedGreen] My Jaguars blogging pal Chris from Big Cat Country let me know that Wiggins was cut before the season after having a bunch of nagging injury problems and never actually played with the Jags. So he's been out of football for a year. Even better! Further proof of how bad the FA TE class is...

In the draft, there only appears to be one TE with anything close to a first round grade and that's the big(6'6) Notre Dame TE John Carlson. Even he will probably be lucky to get picked in the first round. There's USC's Fred Davis, Bennett Martellus from Texas A&M & Martin Rucker from Missouri all who have interesting upsides but are 2nd/3rd round kind of guys. Martellus is the most gifted athlete out of the bunch with the biggest upside but he's coming out early and is very raw. Some team could reach for him in the first and he could be a big boom/bust pick. If we did use a high pick on a TE, I'd sooner roll the dice with him than the others.

It seems obvious to me that the best course of action would be to keep LJ Smith even it if means a one year franchise tag. The only position with a cheaper franchise tag than tight ends are kickers, so for around 4 and half million I think it would be worth keeping LJ around for 2008.

Next up will be options at wide receiver.

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running back?

I'll make a second effort to elicit comments on this idea.

First. (1) Think about Westbrook's fragility. (2) Think about the Eagles's performances with Westbrook out of the line-up. (3) Think about the Eagles's need for another offensive playmaker. (4) Think about the lack of free agent options at the wide receiver and tight end positions.

Now. (5) Think about Westbrook's versatility. (6) Look at the names of running backs selected in the second half of the first round in the last ten years or so - among them Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, De Angelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Deuce McCallister, Shaun Alexander.

I'm a vote for a defensive playmaker in the first round next year, but the hit rate on quality running backs at that point in the draft is unquestionably unbelievable. Westbrook will be 29 on opening day of next year. Tell me it doesn't make you think.

by dave in san mateo on Jan 7, 2008 10:58 PM EST reply actions

BUT

Besides last year he has stayed relatively fresh with limited touches. RBs are a dime-a-dozen and thats why andy has never drafted one higher than the 3rd round. Hunt,buck, moats, all 3rd and 4th rounders.

I agree Westbrook doesnt have that many years left, but we have buckhalter and Hunt as back ups, i dont see us going for a big time RB anytime soon, or even in a few years

by JoeD on Jan 7, 2008 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

You're probably right, but ...

... , of the guys you mention (Hunt, Buck, Moats), there's not a playmaker among them. Running backs are a dime a dozen, yes, but there is a significant upgrade between the 3rd and 4th round and the second half of the first round. I'm not sure there's any other position where you're as likely to get a difference maker from where the Eagles are drafting.

by dave in san mateo on Jan 7, 2008 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

We don't really know about Hunt

Since we haven't hardly seen him... I just question what impact any RB will have next year?

If this other guy is on the field it's probably to spell Westbrook, which won't be often. So will the snaps this new guy gets over Buckhalter really turn this team from 8-8 into a contender? I just don't see that.

If we're going to invest anything major at the RB position, we might as well wait until Westbrook is done.

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by JasonB on Jan 7, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

3rd Round

That was where Westbrook was picked. And Duce Staley. Buckhalter was a 4th rounder.

Look at some other recent guys on other teams. Maurice Jones-Drew - late 2nd round. Jerious Norwood - 3rd round. Frank Gore - 3rd round. Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs - 4th round. Michael Turner - 5th round. Rudi Johnson - 4th round. Reuben Droughns - 3rd round. Ahman Green - 3rd round. Michael Pittman - 4th round. Stephen Davis - 4th round. Curtis Martin - 3rd round. Terrell Davis - 6th round. Dorsey Levens - 5th round.

Why bother spending 1st and 2nd round picks when you can get guys like that in those rounds? Most of those guys are or were high quality starters for several years. Draft and salary value-wise, and given the injury proneness of running backs, a team is better served drafting a guy in the 3rd or 4th round every 2 to 3 years then mortgaging the team on a Reggie Bush, a Curtis Enis, a Cedric Benson style of 1st round bust.

1st or 2nd round picks should be reserved for positions where most starters in the league come out of those rounds and where the players have a high likelihood of having a longer than average NFL career - QB, OT, DT, DE, CB. There's 9 starters at those positions, and the shelf life of good NFL players is about the same.

by Andrew @ Bleeding Green Nation on Jan 8, 2008 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

Correlation is not causation

"Look at the names of running backs selected in the second half of the first round in the last ten years or so - among them Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney, De Angelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Steven Jackson, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Deuce McCallister, Shaun Alexander."

That's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The teams drafting in the bottom of the 1st round are usually good teams, so a good player is usually going to perform better on a team that is already playoff caliber.

by Andrew @ Bleeding Green Nation on Jan 8, 2008 5:46 PM EST up reply actions

With that being said

It looks like if we can retain LJ at a decent price we're better off getting a red-zone WR threat. While I agree with you Curtis and Brown can move the chains we don't have a guy who can go up and get a ball in 1 on 1 coverage. With defenses keying in on Westbrook, it would be nice if we have a guy who could fight for a ball 1 on 1 with a corner. I dont think Brown or Curtis have the size to do that.

by JoeD on Jan 7, 2008 11:00 PM EST reply actions

WR options

Is coming up next....

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by JasonB on Jan 8, 2008 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

Dallas Clark TDs...

were a result of Harrison's bad/injury riddled season. Manning was going to get his TDs, and his favorite target was not available.

by brooksy on Jan 7, 2008 11:52 PM EST reply actions

Franchise LJ, then trade him

Smith is never going to be the TE we wanted him to be so lets get a little something for him (would a 2nd round pick be asking too much?) and give Celek a spin next year.

I agree, a great TE would be a wonderful weapon to have but if he's not out there to be had don't try to force the issue.

by grover on Jan 8, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions

But if LJ is the best out there

Why not keep him for at least this year? I'd rather do that than sink or swim with Celek.

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by JasonB on Jan 8, 2008 11:02 AM EST up reply actions

Why continue the tease?

LJ Smith has not bee a difference maker since he was drafted. He's simply too inconsistent. I think the Eagles get more value out of him by trading him for a 2nd round pick and playing Celek.

by grover on Jan 8, 2008 12:20 PM EST up reply actions

First off

I doubt someone will pay you a second round pick.

Second, I think LJ has been better than you think. When he's healthy he's been good 60 catches and 5 TDs. PLus he's still improving.

I think his inconsistency has been tied to McNabb's injuries. LJ has always played great and put up big numbers with McNabb and disappeared without him. I think he's been a valuable part of the offense and with no better options out there I think he's worth keeping at least one more year.

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by JasonB on Jan 8, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions

You may be right

I have absolutely no idea if the Eagles could trade Smith for a 2nd round pick. Then again, since he'd be a relative bargain at $4 million in 2008 one can only assume that he's not talented enough to merit giving up a 2nd round pick.

OK, that was a little mean of me.

Smith has never, ever totaled 60 catches and 5 TD in the same season.

by grover on Jan 8, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions

Fred Davis

Is a nice player who has produced consistently in USC's pro-style offense. He has good speed, he was a receiver coming into USC. If he's around for the Eagles' second round pick, he's worth a shot.

by Behan @ Bleeding Green Nation on Jan 8, 2008 12:21 PM EST reply actions

He'd be a safe pick

He was a highly recruited WR coming into school and ended up as a TE. He still has some things to learn, but I think he'd be decent. I'm not sure he has the speed to ever really be a top notch guy, but I think he'll be a decent starter.

Like I said, if we pick a TE high I'd roll the dice with Martellus. He's 6'7, he's fast, and he's got good hands. I think he'd be worth the risk.

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by JasonB on Jan 8, 2008 12:36 PM EST up reply actions