Possibly the Most Interesting Draft Results Article Ever

[editor's note, by BleedGreen] promoted from diaries

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/04/19/ramblings/nfl-draft/5088/

This article shows the aggregate of what round current NFL starters were drafted in.  The distributons are extremely telling.

For example, starting QB's are 50% Round 1, 9% Round 2, 9% Round 6, and 16% undrafted.

90% of starting Running Backs are from Rounds 1 to 4.

70% of #1 Wideouts are from Rounds 1 through 3.

56% of #2 Wideouts are from Rounds 1 and 2, 74% from Rounds 1 through 4.

72% of top Offensive Tackles (usually the Left Tackle) are from Round 1, and another 22% from Round 2.  There are no top Offensive Tackles drafted after Round 3.

The other Offensive Tackle can typically be from any round.

Defensive Tackle starters are 37% from Round 1, but then a pretty even distribution from Rounds 2 through 7 plus undrafted - essentially there are not enough good guys to go around, and everyone else is pretty much the same - a Round 6 guy will probably be as good as a Round 3 guy.

Defensive Ends, Tight Ends, and Cornerbacks follow a normal distribution that mimics the overall league average for all positions.  The higher you draft them, the more likely they are to be good.

Linebackers can typically be from any round, with earlier rounds more common (73% OLB's from Rounds 1 to 4, 65% of ILB's from Rounds 1 to 4), but later rounds and undrafted frequent as well.  5-10% of all OLB starters are from each of the later rounds or were undrafted.  30% of MLB's were from Round 7 or undrafted.

Guards and Fullbacks can typically be from any round.

Centers and Safeties come mostly from the late first day rounds or undrafted (74% of Safeties from Rounds 2 or 3 or undrafted, 71% of Centers from Rounds 2 or 3, 7 or undrafted)

Special Teamers (returners, kickers, punters) peak in the mid to later rounds.

The data in the article lead to the conclusion in drafting that a team should for each position:

QB - use a 1st round pick if a starter is needed, a 6th or later if a back-up or groooming prospect is needed.

OT, DT - use a 1st round pick if a top starter is needed, otherwise a guy from any round will probably make do.

RB, #1WR, CB, DE - use a pick from Rounds 1 through 4 for a starter, with the earlier the better.

TE, #2 WR - Rounds 1 and 2 for a good player, any round for an average guy.

FS, SS, C - Rounds 2 or 3 for a good starter, later rounds or undrafted for an average player.

Special Teamers - Round 2 or later, with the later emphasis on Round 4 or later or undrafted.

Since the Eagles don't need a QB, Left Tackle, or D-Tackle, and starting Wideout and Halfback are not high priorities this analysis suggests their 1st round pick be a Cornerback or a good Tight End if available and they want a replacement for LJ Smith.

There is almost no difference in finding a good linebacker in Round 1 vs. Rounds 2, 3, or 4.  So that should be a lower priority, no matter how much the fans scream.  Any safeties should also be from late 1st day picks.

The idea of trading out of the 1st round to get additional 2, 3, and/or 4th round picks is very attractive for where the Eagles are at right now, because they have little need for Round 1 heavy type players.  Their first for an early round 2nd and a 4th (such as to Detroit) would be a great deal.