The Reggie Brown Mystery
[editor's note, by BleedGreen] promoted from diaries. I think this is a pretty fascinating look at just what has been up with the on again off again consistency of Reggie Brown.
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So I decided to look into it a little closer.
Since his drafting, Reggie has played
- with McNabb and another receiver McNabb favored (Owens, Stallworth, and Curtis) - this happened on Week 1 through 8 of 2005, Week 1, 2, 4, 8, and 10 of 2006, the first part of Week 11 of 2006, Week 1 through 9 of 2007 - 22 games.
- with McNabb and a scrub as the other receiver (Lewis or Baskett) - this happened on Weeks 9 and 10 of 2005, Week 3 of 2006, and Weeks 5 through Week 7 of 2006 - just 6 games.
- with a injury replacement QB for McNabb - either Garcia or McMahon - Week 11 through 17 of 2005, Week 12 through the Divisional Championship of 2006 - 14 games
In situation 2, Reggie is a career 27 catches on 46 passes (58.7% completion percentage) for 492 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. 97.2 passer rating for McNabb throwing to him.
In situation 3, Reggie is a career 55 catches on 99 passes (55.6% completion percentage) for 799 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. If youi ignore the injury relief portions of the 2005 Cowboys and 2006 Titans games where the QB's had not had a chance to practice with Reggie, he went 53 catches on 88 passes for 768 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. 106.4 passer rating for McMahon and Garcia throwing to him.
Its really astonishing how bad Reggie has played when McNabb has another receiver he likes to favor. When he's forced to throw to Reggie, or when Reggie is paired with a different QB, Reggie plays like a flat out stud.
In his 20 games in the latter two situations, Reggie is a career 80 catches on 134 attempts for 1260 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions.
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14 comments
Comments
Andrew
Good work!
by 700 Level on Nov 7, 2007 2:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Nice to see the numbers
Very interesting.
Looking for now just at games in which McNabb played, did you notice as you put this together how other guys played in the games in which "Reggie played like a flat-out stud."
Is this a case of McNabb locking onto 1 guy too much, to the exclusion of everyone else?
(Usually that primary target was TO, Stallworth, or "White Lightning", but when those guys weren't available it's Reggie)
If you see that Reggie has big days at the expense of other guys, in that case we have to look at those other guys. If TO, Stallworth, and Curtis are McNabb's primary reads, it still probably makes sense for him to get Reggie the ball more -- I think we'd generally agree that Reggie's at least a solid #2 WR.
However, in games where Reggie was McNabb's primary target, his other options were probably Baskett, Avant, or Greg Lewis, and maybe even Billy McMullen. If Reggie got the ball most of the passing plays, it was because those guys were either very inexperienced at the time or just not very good.
If this is a case of McNabb locking too much onto 1 guy at the expense of everyone else, I think this is a relatively new thing for him. In 2003, it seemed like he really did spread the ball around.
In 2004 and 2005, he really seemed to focusing on getting the ball to 1 guy (TO). Could this be a habit that he developed at that time, that now hurts him because he doesn't have 1 guy of that caliber?
I can't remember too many days where more than 1 Eagles WR has had a good game in the same game. If you go back to 2003, it seems like McNabb was equally spreading the ball out to Westbrook and a bunch of mediocre TEs and WRs.
In 2004, TO was the primary target, but Pinkston had some nice games, too. I think TO and Pinkston complemented each other pretty well as starting WRs.
In 2005, Pinkston was gone, and it seemed like McNabb really forced the ball to TO, both since he was clearly the best, and most experienced w/McNabb WR on the field, and also probably to try to somehow "force" some kind of truce in their "feud".
Now it just seems like he's gotten into the habit of locking onto one guy each game, even though that's not a great strategy without a clear #1.
I guess we need to find out if McNabb isn't throwing to Reggie because of something specifically about Reggie (not getting open enough for McNabb, doesn't trust his hands, etc.) or if McNabb is just not spreading the ball around like he used to.
If it's something specific to Reggie, then they need to evaluate whether McNabb's judgment of the situation is accurate or not. (When Curtis is on the field, would McNabb look for Baskett or Avant more than he does Brown?)
Nice post, sorry to ramble.
by BrianS on Nov 7, 2007 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Other Guys
Looking for now just at games in which McNabb played, did you notice as you put this together how other guys played in the games in which "Reggie played like a flat-out stud."
Among the wideouts in those 6 games, only one game truly stands out.
Baskett vs. Dallas (06) - 3 of 6 for 112 yards and 1 touchdown.
With other receivers, the only good game mixed in is:
Westbrook vs. Tampa (06) - 7 of 11 for 113 yards and 1 touchdown
There were some games where the Schobel and Smith together had a good game when combined (49ers and Saints in 06).
When Stallworth and Brown were both active, they only had good games together with Garcia - Panthers and Redskins, then Giants and Saints in the playoffs.
Brown and Curtis both had good games against the Jets and Vikings, a rarity recently from McNabb. I guess we'd need to define "good game" though before going further.
by Andrew on Nov 7, 2007 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Brown or McNabb
I know vs. Dallas last year at the linc both Brown and Baskett benefited from long TD passes, I don't recall either one having a particularly good day otherwise.
I know you addressed this about the WRs overall in another post, but do you think Brown's getting open?
I guess if the criticisms of McNabb currently being reluctant to throw unless a WRs really open, it makes sense that the faster WRs, Curtis and Stallworth, if available, would get more looks than Brown.
by BrianS on Nov 7, 2007 7:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
What Can Brown do for you?
He wouldn't have lead NFL rookies in 2005 if he couldn't get open.
McNabb is delaying his release of the ball, not trusting that the receivers are going to uncover after he throws to a spot.
by Andrew on Nov 8, 2007 2:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More
Stallworth with McNabb was 21 of 42 (50% completion) for 443 yards and 3 touchdowns. That's a 111.5 passer rating.
Stallworth with Garcia was 19 of 37 (51.4% completion) for 348 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. That's a 108.8 passer rating.
by Andrew on Nov 7, 2007 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
X, Y, Z
McNabb supposedly plays in the West Coast Offense.
In the WCO, the primary playmaker is the Z Receiver, or Flanker. This is the guy lined up usually on the offensive right and next to the Tight End on the strong side of the formation. This has been Reggie Brown's position since inheriting it from Owens in mid-2005. Owens held this position in San Francisco after taking it from Jerry Rice. This is the #1's position.
The X Receiver is the Split End. He's usually on the offensive left and is often a speed guy. he must line up on the line to cover the left tackle unless the Y receiver lines up on the line in the left slot or there is a second Tight End. The Eagles have played Pinkston, Lewis, Stallworth, Baskett, and now Curtis in this position since 2004. All guys they have theoretically considered #2's.
The offensive theory, as I understand it, is that the Z receiver is a slower more physical guy who makes up for his speed with a free release without a jam on the line (although he may have to fight through bumps and blocks from the Strong Safety and SAM Linebacker in the first 5 yards, since those guys would normally be on his side of the field and may try to disrupt his pattern if not blitzing and the Tight End does not release), while the Y receiver may have to beat a jam on the line from the right cornerback (usually a team's #2 corner), but is supposed to use his speed to make up for this delay.
The Eagles stick to this scheme pretty religiously when two wideouts are on the field and the team is not in the redzone (with a slot receiver, they sometimes moved Owens and now Brown into the slot, in the redzone players go everywhere). If you think about all the big plays from Owens, Brown, Stallworth, Curtis, and Baskett over the past 4 years, you'll recall that almost every big play from Stallworth, Lewis, Baskett, and Curtis took place on the left side of the field while plays from Owens and Brown developed from the right. For example, Lewis' big catch against Atlanta in the playoffs, Baskett's 87 yarder against Dallas, or Curtis' two long touchdowns this year all came on the left side of the field. OTOH, Owens 91 yarder against Denver, and Brown's flea flicker touchdowns last year all came off the offensive right.
So if Brown is theoretically McNabb's primary receiver, why is he not having success with him and going to the Split End instead, to the point of using him as a security blanket? Garcia and McMahon both played it the normal way, and McNabb did too when the Split End was a scrub in 2005 and 2006.
by Andrew on Nov 8, 2007 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ok...
In your opinion, do they have the right guys running the right routes?
For example, I've seen people on other boards say Curtis would be a better fit for the slot (I think because of his size) (Sorry, I don't recall how the slot and TE fit into the letter designations), but they don't have anyone else fast enough to be the Split End. I know Curtis' stats are skewed by the Detroit game, but he seems fine where he is, if McNabb would look to Brown more, too.
Just wondering if they can get Brown in another part of the field, if McNabb will look his way. On the other hand, if Donovan's really most comfortable with the X routes right now, I guess Reggie's not really the guy to be running those.
Frustrating!
by BrianS on Nov 8, 2007 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
More
The slot receiver is the Y receiver and he can line up on either side of the formation. He replaces the Tight End in the base offense, the Tight End being the normal Y receiver. However, nowadays, usually teams pull the Fullback and put in a slot. In the base offense, the Z can go in motion across the formation and occupy one of the slot positions if there were three wideouts.
Reggie Brown playing the Z position really means he is suited to be either the Z receiver or the Y receiver in the slot. I'm sure the Eagles know much more about his talent than I do as to why they would put him at Z instead of X.
Those arguing for Kevin Curtis in the slot are partisans of a philosophy which uses a small shifty guy in the slot to get a free release and be able to work the entire field, since he can run either left or right from the middle. However, small guys usually aren't great over the short middle running among the linebackers, and the partisans of the big slot receiver to work the middle much prefer seeing a Baskett or Avant style of player come on in that position. The Eagles seem to prefer big slot guys, and they seem more suited to the short and intermediate West Coast Offense routes. As I noted before, the one small guy, Lewis, when he is brought in usually plays slot as an additional X receiver over on the left.
by Andrew on Nov 9, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
It's interesting to see the actual numbers
by JasonB on Nov 7, 2007 3:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rhythm
In the Jets and Vikings games this year, I believe Marty Mornhinweg made a comment about the need to purposefully look to get Reggie more involved in the offense. He responded with his two best games of the year.
by Andrew on Nov 7, 2007 5:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Correction
Can you correct the diary? I got the passer rating order a little screwed up. It should read:
Since his drafting, Reggie has played1) with McNabb and another receiver McNabb favored (Owens, Stallworth, and Curtis) - this happened on Week 1 through 8 of 2005, Week 1, 2, 4, 8, and 10 of 2006, the first part of Week 11 of 2006, Week 1 through 9 of 2007 - 22 games.
2) with McNabb and a scrub as the other receiver (Lewis or Baskett) - this happened on Weeks 9 and 10 of 2005, Week 3 of 2006, and Weeks 5 through Week 7 of 2006 - just 6 games.
3) with a injury replacement QB for McNabb - either Garcia or McMahon - Week 11 through 17 of 2005, Week 12 through the Divisional Championship of 2006 - 14 games
In situation 1, Reggie is a career 44 catches on 96 passes (45.8% completion percentage) for 619 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. 61.1 passer rating for McNabb throwing to him.
In situation 2, Reggie is a career 27 catches on 46 passes (58.7% completion percentage) for 492 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. 97.2 passer rating for McNabb throwing to him.
In situation 3, Reggie is a career 55 catches on 99 passes (55.6% completion percentage) for 799 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. If youi ignore the injury relief portions of the 2005 Cowboys and 2006 Titans games where the QB's had not had a chance to practice with Reggie, he went 53 catches on 88 passes for 768 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. 106.4 passer rating for McMahon and Garcia throwing to him.
Thanks!
by Andrew on Nov 7, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think I have it fixed
by JasonB on Nov 7, 2007 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
One question
by MaxB on Nov 8, 2007 12:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

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