FanPost

How much more time does Howie Roseman get?

Watching yet another disappointing game in yet another disappointing season, I was struck by how dysfunctional the Eagles organization truly is. It’s even worse when juxtaposed against the Cowboys and Washington. You used to be able to count on their GM’s and owners getting in their own way and screwing things up. But staring up at both teams in the standings makes one question where the Eagles truly sit now, and in the near/medium term. The Eagles last home playoff win came after their 2006 season; that was many coaches, quarterbacks, defensive playcallers ago. Other than the owner, one constant remains: Howie Roseman.

It seems like just yesterday that everyone was again praising GM Howie Roseman for ‘dumping salaries’ and ‘moving up for Wentz’. Recently reading up on former players, I was pleasantly surprised at their success elsewhere.

Kiko Alonso is #1 in fumble recoveries and #12 in total tackles. He appears to be healthy and doing what you expect from a LB. Byron Maxwell had a slow start to the year but has played exceptionally well the past 2 months. The Miami D ranks 8th against the Pass and 1st on third downs. Meanwhile, the cornerbacks that Roseman has assembled in 2016 make his 2013 crew (Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher) look like hall of famers. I am not sure why Roseman insists on saddling his coaching staff with subpar corners in today’s NFL. They are gloating in Miami about the trade.

On the bright side, CB Eric Rowe is playing so well, and so much, in New England that the Eagles might get higher draft pick compensation for him. Sigh.

DeMarco Murray is the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL and has over 5 yards per carry from the shotgun. He has taken the load off of Mariota. Roseman has assembled no such solid RBs in 2016.

And while I wouldn’t advocate keeping Bradford given the trade circumstances offered (1st round pick) to the Eagles in August, it’s worth noting he’s completing over 70%(!) of his passes and, along with the Cowboys Dak Prescott, is one of only 2 QBs in the NFL with more than 2,400 yards passing and 3 or fewer INT. He’s been without Adrian Peterson and contended with a poor offensive line all year (as Eagles’ fan saw in their matchup earlier this season).

What COULD Roseman have done differently?

  • He didn’t have to panic in an effort to get rid of Chip Kelly’s guys for the sake of getting rid of guys. This defense would be much better with Rowe and Maxwell as the cornerbacks and, more importantly, for years to come.

  • Dallas showed in 2014 and again in 2016 what it means to have a workhorse RB and leaving 2016 to merely Mathews and the aging Sproles doesn’t help to develop a young QB, if they still acquired a young QB for 2016.

  • Trade Bradford, even if they didn’t draft Wentz? You could go either way with that one. One way to do it would be to still trade Bradford for the pick and then take chances with Chase Daniel, meanwhile you plan to ‘tank’ a bit in 2016 to get one of the many QBs coming out in 2017.

Much of it comes down to, what was better for the Eagles’ organization: go all-in on Wentz, or bide your time (with Chase Daniels, or perhaps Bradford), keep all your picks and players and grab a QB in 2017. Guys like Deshaun Watson looked like #1 overall picks a year ago but many mocks now have him fringe top 10 and top 20. Some have him 24th to Kansas City. A number of QBs will be going in front of him and the Eagles, with Chase Daniel at QB (and possibly even with Sam Bradford) were looking like a 9-7 team, at best, and perhaps another 7-9 season. A year ago, 7-9 had them picking 15th overall. If they had lost their final game and finished 6-10, they would have picked 8th.

Point is, another mediocre season in 2016 would have given them ample shots for numerous QBs in 2017. They would have better CBs, RBs and more draft picks. Had they traded still traded Sam, they would have 2 first-round picks in 2017. Right now, the Eagles (Cleveland) pick is 13th overall and likely to get better as the Eagles remaining schedule isn't kind and they are on a 2-6 skid already. The other 1st round pick (via the Vikings, for Bradford) is currently 19th but I could see that trending into the mid 20s as MN improves and Peterson returns. So, the Eagles, would likely have had a top 10 pick (call it 9th overall) and a top 25 pick (call it 23rd overall). Most draft value charts have a 9th plus a 23rd getting you to at least 3rd overall. Even if the Eagles didn't want to sit back until 9th, or 23rd, for a QB in 2017, they could have moved up to at least 3rd overall easily enough.

Another important consideration in the "Wentz or wait" decision. Wentz isn’t young. He turns 24 in a few weeks. Deshaun Watson, for example, just turned 21. Jameis Winston (turns 23 in January) and Marcus Mariota (just turned 23 last month) are younger and have been in the NFL one full year longer. Heck, Sam Bradford just turned 29 a few weeks ago---he has "been around forever" but yet is 5 year old older than Wentz.

I realize the urge to ‘find another McNabb just like we did in 1999’ but the Eagles didn’t trade up for McNabb. They didn’t give up draft picks and starting RBs and CBs to get him. They took what the draft offered, when it offered him. McNabb was 22 when he started for the Eagles.

Is the team around Wentz built for success in the near term? No, it is not. It has holes on the offensive line (despite Peter’s rebound in 2016) and the uncertainly around Lane Johnson’s future (his next drug suspension is a career-ender, essentially). The RBs of 2016 won’t be there in 1-2 years. The WRs have been a mess for years, with various cooks in the kitchen trying to sort it out. I imagine "next year" will be Ertz’s breakout. The CBs have been weak for a decade. The linebackers are "OK" but in need of upgrades (where are Maxwell, Rowe and Kiko when you need them?)

How does Howie Roseman "win"? He wins if Wentz is everything the organization needs and wins a super bowl in the next 10 years of his career. Given the ample holes on the team on both sides of the ball, a Super Bowl appearance is a few years away. Howie has to hit on the draft in ways the Eagles haven’t in many years. Wentz may well be 30 years old before the Eagles get enough around him to seriously compete. Offensive lineman, running backs, wide receivers, cornerbacks, and perhaps tight ends and linebackers, aren't going to come in 1-2 drafts.

How does Howie Roseman "lose"? He loses if the Eagles don’t win a Super Bowl during Wentz’s tenure. He really loses if Wentz flames out and especially if the draft class of 2017 produces a few QB that perform much better. The problem for the Eagles is they need a rebuild/restock of many positions. They hindered themselves a bit by trading away many players and picks for 1 position, albeit the most important position (but at what cost and is it the right guy?). In an alternate universe, they would have stayed the course and looked for a QB in the first round of 2017.

Is Roseman the guy to make the calls? History would say, no.