FanPost

Approaching the Draft from a different perspective

I know that the NFL draft is over, but out of pure boredom I decided to make this post. Below, I'll show y'all a diagram detailing the percentage of players by position and round succeeding(minimum 7 years played and 2 probowls) from 1988 to 2005-I think).I understand that it doesn't show recent drafts, but I doubt the results of recent drafts are extremely different by positions. This graph came from a post written 4 years ago:


http://www.fieldgulls.com/2009/3/20/804891/success-by-position-and-ro

Some observations:

People like to say great running backs were a dime a dozen in the NFL, but this graph states otherwise. A 29 percent wild success rate is quite low for the 1st round. Quarterbacks are also very risky, even riskier than RB's in the first round.

Linebackers, DLinemen and defensive backs are the most reliable picks in the 1st and 2nd round. There also seem to be many offensive line steals in the later rounds.(7th round includes UDFA as well in this graph). The average wild success rate is 14% percent , and average starter level is probably around 20%. That means an average team usually gets around 1 solid starter, sometimes 2. A great draft gets about 2 great starters and maybe one elite player. A Super Bowl/ dynasty creating draft may have 2 solid starters and 2 studs

A new way to rate players?

Based on these results, I wanted to make a grading system that would multiply the rating by the average chance that player by position will succeed in the NFL. For example, a defensive back getting a 3.0 rating(A mid 1st round grade) will have his rating multiplied by the average DB success rate, which is 14.6%. Therefore, I would get a wild success chance from this player of about 44%. So here are the ratings I would categorize players as:

4-3.5- Top 3, worthy of 1st pick. Very rarely will a player ever over a 3.5 and a 4.0 rating player will probably come around once every 8-9 years.

3.4-3- High to mid 1st rounder

2.9-2.5 Mid to late 1st

2.4-2 2nd round

2-1.5 3rd round

1.5-1 4th round

0.9-0.7 5th round

0.7 or less 6th-UDFA

Applying this rating to this years Draft:

Now I'll apply the ratings to those selected into this years draft. But now, Im going to include the team fit here. So if Brandin Cooks was drafted by the Oakland Raiders, I'd lower his wild success chance. But since he was drafted in WR friendly offense like the Saints, I will increase his WS chance. eep in mind that the team fit stat is pretty abstract, so its hard to change a players calculated WS chance by too much. Player ratings are also debatable, so there's that. Also, honestly I only watched tape on about 20 of these prospects, so some of these ratings come from a consensus of scouting reports. I'm pretty sure most of y'all did not have the chance to look at Ju'wan James.

For some reason I cant type underneath this graph, so I'll just type some thoughts here. Usually the average 1st round has about a 42% Wild Success rate. 18 match or exceed this rate. So like I expected, this years draft class is probably slightly above average. An adjusted WS chance of 68% is ridiculously high,so basically there is a about a 2/3 chance that Clowney reaches 2 pro bowls and 7 years played. Feel Free to critique and explore this stat, it's not perfect, but it does have history on its side, and I think it is a very accurate way of predicting the future in these players.

Team Player rating Success chance and Trending
Adj.Chance by team fit
HOU J.Clowney 3.8 63% UP 68%
STL G.Robinson 3.5 55% SAME 55%
JAX B.Bortles 3.1 36% UP 41%
BUF S.Watkins 3.5 41% DOWN 37%
OAK K.Mack 3.6 54% DOWN 51%
ATL J.Matthews 3.5 54% UP 58%
TB M.Evans 3.4 39% UP 46%
CLE J.Gilbert 3.2 47% same 47%
MIN A.Barr 3.4 51% up 54%
DET E.Ebron 3 38% up 42%
TEN T.Lewan 3.2 49% same 49%
NYG O.Beckham 3 35% up 39%
STL A.Donald 3.4 56% up 63%
CHI K.Fuller 3.3 48% up 54%
PIT R.Shazier 3 45% up 49%
DAL Z.Martin 2.9 45% same 45%
BAL C.Moseley 3.1 46% up 51%
NYJ C.Pryor 2.7 39% same 39%
MIA J.James 1.8 28% down 25%
NO B.Cooks 3 35% up 42%
GB H.Clinton-Dix 3.1 45% same 45%
CLE J.Manziel 2.5 29% down 26%
KC D.Ford 2.7 44% DOWN 39%
CIN D.Dennard 3 44% SAME 44%
SD J.Verrett 2.6 38% SAME 38%
PHI M.Smith 2.4 36% SAME 36%
ARI D.Buchanon 2.5 37% SAME 37%
CAR K.Benjamin 2.3 27% DOWN 25%
SF J.Ward 2.4 34% same 34%
NE D.Easley 2.4 40% down 34%
DEN B.Roby 3 45% same 45%
MIN T.Bridgewater 3.4 38%

up

42%
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