NFL Playoffs 2014 Picks Against the Spread: Championship Games

Harry How

Here are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas.

Before the AFC/NFC Championship Games of the 2014 NFL Playoffs kick off, I thought we'd have some fun by looking at the spreads for this week's round of playoff games. You can find all of today's NFL betting lines and more at the SB Nation odds page. Click here for a complete schedule of this weekend's games. These are my suggestions when trying to beat Vegas.

Sunday, January 19

AFC Championship Game

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6): The Broncos are six point home favorites. Is that line too big? First, consider that the Patriots haven't played a road playoff game in seven years, so there's no recent road history comparison data. One thing of note, however, is that the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road. New England is also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games when playing on the road against Denver. Then again, Denver is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England. I'm going with the favorites here since I think they will win the game. The Broncos offense is insanely good and I like the home field advantage. Pick: Broncos -6

NFC Championship Game

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5): The San Francisco 49ers typically struggle when they play the Seahawks on the road. San Francisco is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle. At the same time, San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road. I'm taking the Seahawks to win this one, but the game is going to be close. That's why I have to pick the Niners in this case. Pick: Niners +3.5

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