FanPost

Why trade-down advocates are delusional

Look, I'm not crazy about keeping the #4 pick either. However, I think most people are relying on the old trade value chart to judge compensation.

THEY ARE DELUSIONAL.

Half the teams in the top ten are trying to trade down. That alone would depreciate value (supply and demand right?). But the lack of high-end talent compounds this effect to the point where you wonder what value there is in actually trading down at all.

Take San Francisco for example. GM Trent Baalke worked with current Eagles VP of Player Personnel, Tom Gamble for years. Let's say Trent calls Howie and Tom and wants to trade up all the way from pick 31 to pick 4 for Star Lotulelei. The number 4 pick is worth 1800 points. In past years, they would probably have to give up picks 31 and 34 (1160 points) in addition to a first rounder in 2014. This future pick would likely be right about where it is now (29-32).

This year, I think the Eagles would be lucky to receive just picks 31 and 34. That leaves 640 points on the table, equivalent to a late first-round pick.

I expect this cost deflation to echo throughout the first half of the first round before regressing to the mean between picks 15-100, the ideal value of this draft. I think we could see A LOT of moving around once we get out of the top half of the first round, but until then, teams will find it hard to get appropriate compensation for their top picks.

Some teams may elect to trade down anyway. Let's go back to the example I offered from San Francisco. Sure, in any other year you would likely get an extra first round pick for next year's draft. BUT, it ain't any other year. How awesome would it be to have picks 31, 34 and 35 (the Eagles second rounder). That position at the end of the first round and the beginning of the second is prime. Teams sit and stew between the first and second rounds. GM's get excited about players on their board with first round grades that are still around. All of a sudden, there's an INFLATED market for a trade down. That's when you can recoup picks for 2014; or stockpile picks in rounds 3 and 4.

Honestly, I would make this hypothetical trade. Perhaps that makes me delusional too, but for better reasons!

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