We are just two days away from the NFL's version of Christmas, your birthday, and Hanukkah all put together. As the time dwindles, so unfortunately (or fortunately) does Pound the Table. Today, we have AndersJ with his trade scenario, which will serve as the last Pound the Table for 2013. We hope you have enjoyed the series and it will be back next year (unless Jason fires me). Here is what "The Ders" had to say about the Eagles potentially trading in this draft:
To trade or not to trade? That's the question.
The previous two previous Pound the Table posts focused on us trading back from the 4th spot, but I'm instead going to focus on our 35th overall pick.
Looking at and participating on several mock drafts, it's clear that some really talented players will drop. That means two options are open for me. First, if we pick an elite player at 4th overall, there can be a cornerstone player for us over the next decade. Then we have two options with the 2nd pick. Either we can trade back into the 1st round and get a top 10 talent who drops or trade back in the 2nd to acquire another 3rd or 4th round pick.
While we can most likely get more picks from trading back in the 1st, I think it's tougher because the value in the draft is not in the top and we might miss out on an elite player (the Rams did that last year and had to take Brockers instead of much better players).
Let's first focus on scenario 1:
Why would we trade back into the first and for what player? The answer to this question one is pretty straight forward. If a player you have as top 10-15 player is still there in the mid 20's, you have to pounce on him if the trade up value is not too steep (so no to trading a future 1st). If there are several players who drop on your board, you can sit still and hope one of the them will drop, but there is a great chance that's not going to happen.
A great example of this kind of trade is the one the Bucs made last year, the 36th overall and 101st for the 31st and 126th pick. With the 31st pick took Doug Martin aka Muscle Hamster. The Bucs traded up from their early 2nd round pick back into the 1st and only switched 25 spots in the 4th round for that. I think the Eagles can pull something similar up if they want back into the first. The compensation depends on how far back into the 1st they want, but I would be very stocked if they did it as long as they don't trade away a 2014 pick.
The tough question now becomes for what player? I can list all sort of players there how top 10-15 value for me there might be there in the mid 20's, but I'm not going to do that.
Now let's focus on scenario 2:
What if none of players slides and the next 10 players on the board have similar grades? This is where you trade back. So what kind of compensation can the Eagles expect?
Last year there were several 2nd round trades:
N.Y. Jets: Acquire pick No. 43 in 2012
Seattle Seahawks: Acquire picks No. 47, No. 154 and No. 232 in 2012
Chicago Bears: Acquire pick No. 45 in 2012
St. Louis Rams: Acquire picks No. 50 and No. 150 in 2012
Green Bay Packers: Acquire pick No. 51 in 2012
Philadelphia Eagles: Acquire picks No. 59 and No. 123 in 2012
As you can see the Eagles got the most compensation, but they also moved the most. Also the Eagles 2nd round pick is a higher pick than any of the picks traded here, so they should, at minimum, be able to get a 4th+6th.
Why would any team trade up with us? Let's say Geno Smith is the only QB taken in round 1, then a QB needy team behind us might want to jump up and get their QB. Maybe a player with 1st round talent on another team's board is there and they don't think he will fall all the way to them.
I think the Eagles should stay put at 4th overall (unless blown away by an offer) and draft a cornerstone player there and then be ready to pounce if a player they like drop or else see if we can get a few extra day 3 picks by trading back a little in the 2nd.