The original version of this post can be found at EaglesRewind.com, but judging by the reaction to my previous posts on BGN (the PVM system), I felt this audience would appreciate it a lot.
I’ve taken the three major scouting ratings (Scouts Inc., NFP, and NFL.com) and averaged them together to get a consensus score for each player. I then calculated the standard deviation for each player and used that to create a corresponding value range (+- 1 SD). Overall, I believe this provides a much more informative “draft board” than simply listing prospects sequentially. While every team assigns each player a specific grade, they must also recognize that certain players have a better chance of reaching those grades than others. These charts are an attempt to quantify and visualize that logic. In practice, every team would make adjustments based on their own internal rankings and systems, but the overall idea remains the same: This is what draft boards should look like.
Lets start with the CBs:
We can see why Dee Milliner is the consensus #1 CB. He’s clearly in his own tier, with both a higher expected value than anyone else and a lower range (less uncertainty). After him, the guy to pay attention to is DJ Hayden, who seems to be rising up draft boards. Mike Mayock actually has him ranked above Dee Milliner. This chart shows that Hayden does indeed have the talent to become one of the best CBs in this class. However, it also shows that he carries a lot of risk as well. For my money, I’d rather have Jamar Taylor or Xavier Rhodes. Giving up very little upside for A LOT less downside.
Note that the DE/OLB breakdown is difficult since there are several players who could go either way (Mingo for example could definitely be an OLB). I’ve defaulted to whichever position a player is listed as by ESPN.
Here we can see that the top tier of DEs is composed of 3 players, Ansah, Mingo, and Werner, with little difference between them and a big drop-off after them. Tank Carradine sticks out as the best option after the first tier, but he carries some injury risk that isn’t represented here.
Similar to the CBs, we see a clear top tier of just one prospect (Dion Jordan). The talent falls off relatively quickly after Jordan, which is something to keep an eye on in the draft. If the Eagles really want an OLB, it might be best to take Jordan (if he’s there) at #4, since the options after him are lacking.
I’m a big fan of Star Lotulelei; I think his versatility and skill-set make him a great fit for the Eagles. However, this chart is a pretty clear case for NOT taking him at #4. The drop-off in DT talent is not nearly as severe as we saw in the OLBs or CBs, suggesting the team could slide down or wait until round 2 and still grab a DT with a lot of talent. Five players here have “upsides” that crack 90, illustrating the very strong depth of this DT class.
The chart confirms Joeckel and Fisher as perhaps the best players in the draft (on an absolute basis). However, it also shows that there is reasonable depth behind them at the OT position. I’ve mentioned him a few times, but Menelik Watson looks like he’ll be a great value at the end of the first round or beginning of the second. He doesn’t crack the 90 point mark, but the scouts are very confident that he’ll be a good (not great) player.
This is a particularly informative chart, as it clearly shows the risk associated with each QB. Nassib is clearly the boom/bust player of the class, though EJ Manuel also carries in incredibly large range of potential values. Tyler WIlson is the “least risky” QB, in that he offers the narrowest range, but he also does not show the potential upside that most teams are looking for in a starting QB.
Some team will take the plunge on Nassib and Manuel, but I wouldn’t touch them in the 1st round with a ten-foot pole. Even at #35 overall, I’d probably pass.
This is a position of interest for Eagles fans, since the team is in desperate need of some talent at safety. This is, potentially, a very deep class. Notice, though, that many of the players carry a LOT of uncertainty. At this moment, my only concrete “want” for the draft is for the Eagles to come out of it with one of the top guys here. Cyprien would be my choice, and I think it’s possible the Eagles trade up into the end of the 1st round to get him. The team could wait on either Elam or Swearinger, but each is a risky play. Conversely, the team could almost definitely sit at #35 and select Eric Reid, but he doesn’t offer the potential upside I (and most fans) would like to see with that valuable a draft pick.
Lastly, the WRs:
Not much to say here, other than there aren’t any clear gaps in the group. That means if you want a receiver, you’ll be able to find one almost anywhere in the first three rounds without “reaching”. Not a lot of high-level talent (only 3 players break 90, and one just barely), but lots of solid prospects.