FanPost

This was my take on Geno Smith

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via sicollegefootball.files.wordpress.com

Geno Smith evaluation / quarterback evaluation perspective

Geno Smith Confutative (via shankdiddy3)

Using my system of evaluation I am able to project quarterbacks very accurately.

My evaluation process is 2 part...

A. does a quarterback throw with anticipation with accuracy.

B. Do they have dynamic pocket command? … as defined by the following.

1. Able to maintain eye level down field regardless of what is happening (feel the rush not look at the rush). Can a passer slide in the pocket and climb the pocket while NOT looking at the rush at all.

2. Can a passer maintain his passing profile (ready to throw it and remain on balance) and if extending the play by moving can they reload (get back on balance)

3. Does a passers level of play drop off significantly when they are pressured? Or can a passer maintain a high level of play vs pressure.

4. (bonus) have the ability to extend the play.

5. (bonus) have the ability to make plays with their legs.

With keeping the following perspective ......

Pay attention to skill sets NOT these factors as a primary source of evaluation's

1. wins and losses

2. conference they played in / talent around them or lack there of / level of comp faced

3. type of offensive system they ran

4. stats

These areas need further context and can not stand alone without film to support any negative or positive extrapolation.

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With this system I was able to project that Andrew Luck would be more turnover prone (lead the NFL in turnovers). And that Robert Griffin would be unique in that department.

Geno Smith had 401 more pass attempts in college than Luck and 273 more pass attempts than Griffin. Smith had more volume of pass attempts to make mistakes on and yet had 1 less interception than Luck and 4 more than Griffin.Take note of the fact that he was sacked 78 times compared to Griffins 79 times and Lucks 23 times for 3 year starters…. Considering the increase volume of throws Geno Smith had and the number of QB pressures you SHOULD see closer to 40 to 50 interceptions… right?… but he didn’t. These stats matched what I saw on film.

Put this in perspective how telling this can be. Monitor Matt Barkley’s rookie year. In college he didn’t respond to pressure very well on film. And it was presented with 55 sacks for his career and 48 interceptions on 98 more pass attempts than Geno Smith.

My major point in this understanding how pressure impacts choices quarterbacks make. Now Prior to the 2012 season I projected Luck would be turnover prone because of film and because of his 23 sacks to 22 int ratio…. I projected what that would look like over a NFL season when you get sacked 35 to 40 times (he was sacked 41 times) He lead the NFL in turnovers……….. I projected Griffin who was sacked 79 times yet only had 17 interceptions would take care of the ball better he had 30 sacks and 5 interceptions……. the ratio can be impacted by scheme and volume of attempts and game situations so I am not blind to that……. however this ratio matched what I saw on film. So what do you think will happen to Matt Barkley vs NFL pressure when he gets sacked 35 to 40 times in a season? Considering he turned the ball over in college when he was sacked 55 times and gave it too the other team 48 times. Then think about what will happen to Geno Smith when he is sacked 35 to 40 times.

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With this system I projected that not only was Cam Newton NFL ready..... But that he was advanced in his development as a NFL quarterback (many laughed but I was dead on for the right reasons using my system)

I have found that the Media spin and fan perspective of this player as I peal back the layers of each concern don't match the reality of the player. It is my opinion that this is one of the most historically undervalued prospects in my resent memory. And that this player is closer too a "Aaron Rodgers" like talent. (Not saying Aaron Rodgers level talent but I am saying Aaron Rodgers Like talent). I compare Geno Smith to Aaron Rodgers for this reason. Even while Aaron Rodgers was sacked 51 times he only tossed 8 interceptions>> in 2009 50 sacks 7 interceptions…. PRESSURE does not induce turnovers.

So while there are many fans and media types (most sadly) that will say he isn't worth a high pick. I feel as if there is a lot of group think and hive mind thinking when it comes to this player. And that most simply have not identified who this player is.

As a football fan I am very compelled to speak out on myths in sports and when perception of teams and players don't meet the reality of that player or team. Like the other day I heard Mike Mayock say "Geno Smith takes too many sacks". Yet in threw the ball 273 times more than Robert Griffin III yet took 1 less sack over his career. Then I think about how some fans say "wait till next year we can draft Teddy Bridgewater".... Yet he has been sacked 61 times in 2 seasons 28 this year and 33 last year. Geno Smith's sack totals look close to that with 28 in 2010, 26 in 2011, and 19 in 2012 (trending in the right direction if I might add)

Something that bothers me non skill set related

There tends to be argument's about this players value related to the above areas (stats / system / players around him / wins losses) that again don't stand alone with out film to really support that perspective. There are inconsistency in media spin that bothers me. Like his pro day for example. I don't think that a pro day proves anything in my opinion other than getting a chance to pull a kid to the side and talk to them. But if Pro day was all you needed to be a great prospect then this guy would be a number one draft choice. However with all of that being said this isn't the tone of every pro day work out. I didn't hear (Jamarcus Russell had the best pro day ever) that with Andrew Luck last year or Robert Griffin III (everyone just loved his socks). So just seems like the tone of Geno Smith's evaluation in the eyes media has a slant too it. Like the Media fell in love with Luck and Griffin but Geno Smith doesn't really have anything that the media has fallen in love with.... just my take on that.

In this prospects case this is kinda of what I am seeing. I hope I provided more perspective on this player thank you for reading my post.

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