FanPost

The Age Old Draft Question; Quality or Quantity?

As a follow up to my last FanPost, (by the way, if you go read it, please do me a favor and promise to ignore my comments. I still feel like an asshole), I thought it might be a fun exercise for us to play the “Quality vs. Quantity” game when it comes to what the Eagles should do in the upcoming NFL Draft. The so-called inspiration for this stems from my belief that we should trade back and get more picks because we need so much (Quantity), but JasonB's belief that superstars are what win games in the League and we need to take advantage of our high draft position (Quality). Typing that actually sways me a little to the Quality side. Just a little though.

For those who may not be familiar with what I mean by "Quality vs. Quantity", for the sake of this exercise, let's equate Quality with keeping our original draft picks and Quantity with trading back and adding more picks.

For this exercise, I am going to stick with Rounds 1-3 and the top 100 prospects as provided by www.MockingtheDraft.com, a fantastic resource for mock junkies like myself or folks who want to learn more about individual prospects or follow the buildup to the Draft.

The Eagles, umm, for the lack of a better word, "earned" the following picks with their 4-12 record: #4, #35 & #67 (per WalterFootball.com, another great draft website). So, for the Quality side, that is what you are dealing with.

For the Quantity side, we need to trade back and accumulate a few more picks. But, to do this, we need to simulate a trade or two and I am going to turn to the top 10 trades that have actually occurred during the last 2 drafts as a guide. Let's review those and again, the trade information is via www.Wikipedia.org.

2011 - 1 trade in the top 10.

No. 6: Cleveland → Atlanta. (D) Cleveland traded this pick to Atlanta for Atlanta's first (27th overall, which later became #26), second (59th) and fourth-rounder (124th) and also Atlanta's first- and fourth-round selections in 2012.

As you can see, ATL paid a lot to move up 21 spots. This should be encouraging for the Quantity side.

2012 - 4 trades in the top 10.

No. 2: St. Louis → Washington (PD). St. Louis traded this selection to Washington for first-round selections in 2012 (6th), 2013, and 2014, and a 2012 second-round selection (39th).
No. 3: Minnesota → Cleveland (PD). Minnesota traded this selection to Cleveland for their first (4th), fourth (118th), fifth (139th), and seventh round (211th) selections this year.
No. 5: Tampa Bay → Jacksonville (D). Tampa Bay traded this selection to Jacksonville for their first (7th) and fourth round (101st) selections this year.
No. 6: St. Louis → Dallas (D). St. Louis traded this selection to Dallas for their first (14th) and second round (45th) selections this year.

The exorbitant prices paid in these trades made the ATL trade for Julio seem like a bargain. Again, this should be encouraging for the Quantity side.

So we have:

2011 #6 bringing back #26, #59 and #124 + a future 1st & 4th.

2012 #2 bringing back #6 + 2 future 1sts & 2nd.

2012 #3 bringing back #4, #118, #139 & #211

2012 #5 bringing back #7 & #101

2012 #6 bringing back #14 & #45

However, these trades all need to be discounted for 1 major reason; most of the players involved in these trades and in the top 10 of both previous drafts are all, collectively speaking, higher ranked prospects than what is available in this year’s draft. In fact, I would opine that most of 2011's and 2012's top 5 drafted prospects would all be the #1 overall pick if they came out this year, outside of maybe Joeckel edging them out. That works against the Quantity side as our #4 pick will not return the same bounty as it may have last year, or even the year before. Also, for this exercise, I am not interested in future picks. If this were real life though, I would prefer a few future picks because next year's draft class, specifically QBs and DEs, is being projected as top-heavier than this year's draft class and in my opinion, next year's picks are more valuable.

So, our hypothetical trade is below, with some help from WalterFootball’s trade chart with their respective values in parentheses (and this is strictly hypothetical guys, I am not factoring in other team’s need at all and I am not accounting for the trade involving just one team, I am simply taking the 4th pick and substituting it for later picks that I feel are close to being a trade that could actually happen in real life and be somewhat believable. Okay? Okay).

#4 (1800) for picks #16 (1000), #45 (450), #55 (350) & #96 (116)

Quality Picks - #4, #35 & #67

Quantity Picks - #16, #35, #45, #55, #67 & #96

So, now that we have set the picks to play our game with, let's cross any remaining lower case t's and dot the lower case i's and j's.

I am going to list the top 100, at the bottom, and you pick 1 prospect from each group of 5 prospects that start with the respective pick. You can't take a prospect that is ranked higher than your respective pick.

Example: Pick #16 for the Quantity Group can be made from prospects 16-20 on the top 100. If you want to take a guy that is ranked lower that that, knock yourself out. Pick #35 can be made from prospects 35-39, #45 from 45-49 and so on and so on.

The point of this is to put actual prospects to the actual picks (or hypothetical picks for the Quantity side) for both sides of the argument, and see if you can put together a group of guys who will convince folks who support the opposite view to switch sides. Make sense? I certainly hope so. If you have any questions, let me know in the comments and I will do my best to erase any confusion or discrepancies.

As always, thanks for reading. Have a great day and a better tomorrow. Time's yours.

Reddgie

MtD's Top 100: (* = early entrant and ** = don't know actually

1. Luke Joeckel | 6'5, 310 pounds | Offensive tackle | Texas A&M *
2. Damontre Moore | 6'4, 250 pounds | Defensive end | Texas A&M *
3. Chance Warmack | 6'3, 320 pounds | Guard | Alabama
4. Star Lotulelei | 6'4, 320 pounds | Defensive tackle | Utah
5. Bjoern Werner | 6'4, 272 pounds | Defensive end | Florida State *
6. Dee Milliner | 6'1, 196 pounds | Cornerback | Alabama *
7. Jarvis Jones | 6'3, 241 pounds | Outside linebacker | Georgia *
8. Sheldon Richardson | 6'4, 295 pounds | Defensive tackle | Missouri *
9. Jesse Williams | 6'4, 320 pounds | Defensive tackle | Alabama
10. Eric Fisher | 6'8, 305 pounds | Offensive tackle | Central Michigan
11. Dion Jordan | 6'6, 243 pounds | Defensive end | Oregon
12. Arthur Brown | 6'1, 228 pounds | Middle linebacker | Kansas State
13. Jonathan Cooper | 6'3, 310 pounds | Guard | North Carolina
14. Barkevious Mingo | 6'5, 240 pounds | Outside linebacker/Defensive end | LSU *
15. Manti Te'o | 6'2, 255 pounds | Middle linebacker | Notre Dame
16. Tyler Eifert | 6'6, 251 pounds | Tight end | Notre Dame
17. Geno Smith | 6'3, 214 pounds | Quarterback | West Virginia
18. Sam Montgomery | 6'5, 260 pounds | Defensive end | LSU *
19. Ezekiel Ansah | 6'6, 270 pounds | Defensive end | BYU
20. Keenan Allen | 6'3, 206 pounds | Wide receiver | California *
21. Khaseem Greene | 6'1, 220 pounds | Outside linebacker | Rutgers
22. Xavier Rhodes | 6'2, 209 pounds | Cornerback | Florida State *
23. Lane Johnson | 6'7, 303 pounds | Offensive tackle | Oklahoma
24. Kenny Vaccaro | 6'1, 215 pounds | Safety | Texas
25. Johnathan Hankins | 6'4, 317 pounds | Defensive tackle | Ohio State *
26. John Jenkins | 6'3, 351 pounds | Defensive tackle | Georgia
27. Shariff Floyd | 6'3, 305 pounds | Defensive tackle | Florida *
28. Kevin Minter | 6'2, 242 pounds | Middle linebacker | LSU *
29. Logan Ryan | 6'0, 190 pounds | Cornerback | Rutgers *
30. D.J. Fluker | 6'6, 335 pounds | Offensive tackle | Alabama *
31. Johnthan Banks | 6'2, 185 pounds | Cornerback | Mississippi State
32. Sylvester Williams | 6'3, 320 pounds | Defensive tackle | North Carolina
33. Zach Ertz | 6'6, 249 pounds | Tight end | Stanford *
34. Tavon Austin | 5'9, 174 pounds | Wide receiver | West Virginia
35. DeAndre Hopkins | 6'1, 200 pounds | Wide receiver | Clemson *
36. Matt Barkley | 6'2, 230 pounds | Quarterback | Southern California
37. Cordarrelle Patterson | 6'3, 205 pounds | Wide receiver | Tennessee *
38. Alec Ogletree | 6'3, 232 pounds | Middle linebacker | Georgia *
39. Barrett Jones | 6'5, 302 pounds | Center | Alabama
40. Alex Okafor | 6'4, 260 pounds | Defensive end | Texas
41. Jordan Poyer | 6'0, 190 pounds | Cornerback | Oregon State
42. Robert Woods | 6'1, 190 pounds | Wide receiver | Southern California *
43. Giovani Bernard | 5'10, 205 pounds | Running back | North Carolina **
44. Oday Aboushi | 6'6, 310 pounds | Offensive tackle | Virginia
45 Justin Hunter | 6'4, 200 pounds | Wide receiver | Tennessee *
46. Jordan Reed | 6'3, 243 pounds | Tight end | Florida *
47. Eddie Lacy | 6'0, 220 pounds | Running back | Alabama *
48. Matt Elam | 5'10, 206 pounds | Safety | Florida *
49. Justin Pugh | 6'5, 292 pounds | Offensive tackle | Syracuse *
50. Kawann Short | 6'3, 310 pounds | Defensive tackle | Purdue
51. Aaron Dobson | 6'2, 205 pounds | Wide receiver | Marshall
52. Tyler Wilson | 6'3, 220 pounds | Quarterback | Arkansas
53. Cornelius Carradine | 6'5, 265 pounds | Defensive end | Florida State
54. Larry Warford | 6'3, 333 pounds | Guard | Kentucky
55. Datone Jones | 6'4, 275 pounds | Defensive end | UCLA
56. Travis Frederick | 6'4, 338 pounds | Center | Wisconsin *
57. Nico Johnson | 6'2, 245 pounds | Middle linebacker | Alabama
58. Chase Thomas | 6'3, 240 pounds | Outside linebacker | Stanford
59. Margus Hunt | 6'8, 295 pounds | Defensive end | SMU
60. Desmond Trufant | 6'0, 185 pounds | Cornerback | Washington
61. Tony Jefferson | 5'10, 212 pounds | Safety | Oklahoma *
62. Marcus Lattimore | 6'0, 218 pounds | Running back | South Carolina *
63. Will Davis | 6'0, 186 pounds | Cornerback | Utah State
64. Brandon Jenkins | 6'3, 260 pounds | Outside linebacker | Florida State
65. Terrance Williams | 6'3, 205 pounds | Wide receiver | Baylor
66. Dallas Thomas | 6'5, 300 pounds | Guard/ Tackle | Tennessee
67. Brennan Williams | 6'7, 310 pounds | Offensive tackle | North Carolina
68. Mike Glennon | 6'6, 232 pounds | Quarterback | North Carolina State
69. Eric Reid | 6'2, 208 pounds | Safety | LSU *
70. Leon McFadden | 5'10, 190 pounds | Cornerback | San Diego State
71. Kyle Long | 6'7, 311 pounds | Guard/ Tackle | Oregon
72. Dion Sims | 6'5, 276 pounds | Tight end | Michigan State *
73. William Gholston | 6'7, 275 pounds | Defensive end | Michigan State *
74. Quinton Patton | 6'2, 195 pounds | Wide receiver | Louisiana Tech
75. Bennie Logan | 6'3, 287 pounds | Defensive tackle | LSU *
76. David Amerson | 6'3, 194 pounds | Cornerback | North Carolina State *
77. Da'Rick Rogers | 6'3, 205 pounds | Wide receiver | Tennessee Tech *
78. Jelani Jenkins | 6'0, 230 pounds | Outside linebacker | Florida *
79. Stedman Bailey | 5'10, 195 pounds | Wide receiver | West Virginia *
80. Jon Bostic | 6'1, 246 pounds | Middle linebacker | Florida
81. Johnathan Franklin | 5'10, 205 pounds | Running back | UCLA
82. Tyler Bray | 6'6, 213 pounds | Quarterback | Tennessee *
83. Corey Lemonier | 6'4, 242 pounds | Defensive end | Auburn *
84. Shawn Williams | 6'1, 217 pounds | Safety | Georgia
85. Gavin Escobar | 6'6, 255 pounds | Tight end | San Diego State *
86. Gerald Hodges | 6'2, 233 pounds | Outside linebacker | Penn State
87. Markus Wheaton | 6'1, 182 pounds | Wide receiver | Oregon State
88. D.J. Swearinger | 6'0, 212 pounds | Safety | South Carolina
89. Brian Winters | 6'6, 294 pounds | Guard/ Tackle | Kent State
90. Jonathan Cyprien | 6'0, 210 pounds | Safety | Florida International
91. Zac Dysert | 6'4, 228 pounds | Quarterback | Miami (Ohio)
92. Menelik Watson | 6'6, 320 pounds | Offensive tackle | Florida State *
93. Blidi Wreh-Wilson | 6'2, 190 pounds | Cornerback | Connecticut
94. Travis Kelce | 6'4, 280 pounds | Tight end | Cincinnati
95. Ryan Nassib | 6'3 227 pounds | Quarterback | Syracuse
96. Joseph Randle | 6'1, 200 pounds | Running back | Oklahoma State *
97. Alvin Bailey | 6'5, 320 pounds | Guard | Arkansas *
98. Ricky Wagner | 6'6, 322 pounds | Offensive tackle | Wisconsin
99. Mike Davis | 5'10, 180 pounds | Cornerback | Hawaii *
100. Bacarri Rambo | 6'0, 218 pounds | Safety | Georgia

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