FanPost

Nick Foles's Floor

I really like Nick Foles, if our defense didn't become quite literally the worst unit in football over the last couple of weeks Foles could've probably won more than a game. Of course, that would've interfered with Operation Tank. But there are many who question, in healthy skepticism about whether or not Foles can be the guy.

Particularly, in today's offense-oriented NFL, we see what the Rodgers, the Mannings, the Kapernicks and the Brady's of the world can do as well as in his prime, our own Donovan McNabb. And its true, a good pocket passer is what leads to victory about 60% of the time, the other 40% is predicated on at least a commitment to the run. And with Shady and newly found Bryce Brown, the next HC has all of the options he needs to run a successful NFL-style offense.

Last year's draft was the year of the QB: Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson and even Ryan Tannehill. All of these rookies went through their ups and downs. Butt here's the thing: Statistically, our guy hung in there. Foles was about equal or near most of these guys in several categories: Yards, touchdowns and first downs. His YPC leaves a bit to be desired but Foles improved each and every game.

I briefly posted earlier, on what I believed Foles's "Floor"(This is sports teminology for if the guy doesn't exactly improve significantly but at least he doesn't get any worse) could be and I believe that to be Chad Pennington:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2149/chad-pennington

Like Foles, Pennington had size for the position(6'3) and like Foles, Pennington didn't have the greatest arm strength. However, if there's positives on the upswing is that despite his lack of arm strength, Pennington didn't have trouble running the offense, notching a career 102 TD's and at least four seasons of 16+ TD's.

They also clocked very similarly in the dashing scores:

http://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?f=Chad&l=Pennington&i=4718

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=78428&draftyear=2012&genpos=QB

40 yard dash:

Pennington: 4.81 Foles: 4.99

20 yard dash:

Pennington: 2.73 Foles: 2.90

10 yard dash:

Pennington: 1.59 Foles: 1.79

Putting it into even more perspective, in Pennington's best year, he had a very young Santana Moss, Laveranues Coles and a couple of scrubs named Wayne Cherbet and Anthony Becht as his top receivers. Seriously.

Curtis Martin, much like Pennington himself was a solid player at his position(RB), but no where near what Foles has at his disposal in Shady and Bryce. Let alone Jackson, Maclin, Celek and if we add a third playmaker WR to that core? A guy with size who can catch? That'll really open things up.

Should we try to find a better guy? Of course, we're trying to win a SB. But can we win one with Foles if he's Chad Pennington-lite? Absolutely. Imagine if the Jets put some better weapons around him, Pennington quite literally WAS the Jets offense. You could say his career was sabotaged by the fortune of being drafted by a shitty ownership.

Say what you will, but Andy Reid generally is pretty good at evaluating offensive talent and that's who Howie learned from, in a combination with his analytics we've seen Howie build a pretty good 2012 class that includes this young man.

Foles will be supported on the football field, the elixir of health and some added youth to the O-Line and perhaps one more TRUE impact receiver or TE(as well as Safety/LB/D-Line help)could really be the difference between being a losing team and a winning one come the 2013 campaign.

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