Week 1 NFL Picks: Eagles Open As Big Favorites In Cleveland

With week one of the NFL season technically already underway, it may seem like a bit late to make my picks for the weekend.... But let's be honest. This thing really starts on Sunday.

So here are my picks for every game on Sunday. I've picked winners here, but if you're interested in against the spread picks from some trend analysis, check out my picks over on SBNation Philly.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (-9.5) - Even if the rookie QB is Andrew Luck, I'm not picking him on the road in his debut against what should be a good team this year. Pick: Bears

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (+9) - The line is big for the Eagles on the road here, but the Browns are beat up and inexperienced. They've got a rookie QB in his debut against what is arguably the best pass rush in the league. Pick: Eagles

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-7.5) - Frankly I'm surprised the line is this low. Pick: Lions

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+5.5) - The Pats showed absolutely nothing in preseason, but of all teams they may have been trying the least. Pick: Patriots

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs (+3) - This is a trickier game than people realize for the Falcons. Dome team on the road outside against an out of conference opponent. Trends don't favor them there. This should be close. Pick: Falcons

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings (-4) - It's always tough to predict what will happen when bad teams play one another. So I always default to the home team. Pick: Vikings

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7) - I don't know if the fact that this line is only a TD reflects some sort of warped optimism by Redskins fans or something... But I see them getting smoked at the Superdome. Pick: Saints

Buffalo Bills at NY Jets (-2.5) - They say the home team gets 3 points automatically... so if they're favored by only 2.5, it should tell you something. The Jets offense was nonexistent in the preseason, the Bills defense looks good. Pick: Bills

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-11.5) - The Dolphins do have a good defense, but its hard to see them getting a lot of support in this game. And again, rookie QB in his debut on the road... Pick: Texans

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-5) - This is probably the best game of the weekend and if this was in San Fran it would probably be a total toss up. But I like the Pack in Lambeau. Pick: Packers

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) - We've got a rookie QB on the road in his debut here, but we've also got bad QBs on the other side. I really hate this game, but I kind of like the Seattle defense. I think they could make the difference here. Pick: Seahawks

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) - These two teams are really a mystery. Are the Panthers any better? Is Cam Newton as good with actual expectations? Can he actually win games? Did Josh Freeman just have a sophomore slump or is he just terrible? Will all the money the Bucs spent change anything? Pick: Panthers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (-1) - These teams should be pretty evenly matched, but I like Denver at home and I really don't like the Steelers' defensive line. Pick: Broncos

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6) - The Bengals did have a good season last year, but they consistently didn't beat good teams when they had a chance. Until they prove their playoff appearance last year was about anything more than just beating bad teams, I can't pick them on the road against the Ravens. Pick: Ravens

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-1) - I'm not sure what to say about this one. Can Carson Palmer be anywhere near the QB he once was? What about Phillip Rivers? Can he lead the Chargers? I really don't know. Pick: Raiders

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