Week 4 of the NFL season is upon us and we've got the real refs back! Not that that helps anyone that bet on the Packers last week... 68% of bets on Monday night were on the Packers and it is estimated that $300 million went from bettors to the bookies on that one blown call.
Let's try to make that up this week.
Panthers at Falcons - No shock that the Falcons are a touchdown favorite at home here. They're rolling, while the Panthers were embarrassed at home last week. I'd expect Carolina to show more fight this time, but their secondary is no match for the Atlanta passing game. Pick: Falcons
Vikings at Lions - Detroit is a 6 point favorite at home, which is somewhat surprising given how they've struggled this season and Minnesota has been surprisingly good. I like this to be a close game and see this as much upset special. Pick: Vikings
49ers at Jets - The Niners are 4 point road favorites here, which surprises me. San Fran got beat last week by the Vikings and are now on the 2nd of back to back road games. They've actually stayed in Ohio this week to avoid making 3 cross country trips in a week. It worked for them last year, when they came down from 20-0 to beat the Eagles by a point. That said, the Jets offense is terrible. Pick: 49ers
Titans at Texans - Houston is a huge 12 point favorite at home and just might be the best team in the league right now. Still, that's a massive number. I actually like the Titans to cover. Pick: Titans
Dolphins at Cardinals - I'm very surprised the Cardinals are only 5.5 point favorites here. Given that 65% of the money has come in on them, the line could move. I like it at 5.5 though. Pick: Cardinals.
Bengals at Jaguars - The public sees this as the most lopsided game of the week with Jags as a 1 point home dog. Over 70% of the money has come in on the Bengals. I'm trusting in the wisdom of the crowds. Pick: Bengals
Saints at Packers - Who would have thought that this week 4 matchup would feature a winless Saints team vs a 1-2 Packers squad? Those would have been some long odds... As this one stands, the Pack are a pretty big 9 point favorite at home and most of the money has actually come in against them. Almost 60% have bet on the Saints. That said, I can see the Packers just frothing after having a game stolen last week and the Saints defense isn't likely to be able to do anything to stop them. Pick: Packers
Giants at Eagles - The one we've been waiting for... Philadelphia is a slim 1 point favorite here and almost 65% of the bets have come in on the Giants. However, the Eagles covered the spread 53% of the time in 10,000 simulations. Pick: Eagles
Bears at Cowboys - Dallas is a 3.5 point favorite at home here and neither team has inspired a lot of confidence amongst bettors. The money is coming in pretty close. In these situations I just go with the home team. Pick: Cowboys