The Eagles started off their 2012 season with a less than inspiring win on the road in Cleveland. This Sunday, they'll have a chance to make a major statement at home against another team from the AFC North.
The Ravens come into Philadelphia as just 1 point underdogs. The line started at 3, but has moved significantly as bettors like the Ravens after they did almost exactly what they were expected to do against the Bengals in week one. That said, while I wrote yesterday that I didn't understand the extra hype around the Ravens because at home they beat a team they swept last season and who didn't beat a single team with a winning record, I do get the extra skepticism over the Eagles, who struggled to beat one of the worst teams in the league.
So the sentiment is blowing the Ravens way for this game, but what about the trends? We'll look at this game and more in our week 2 against the spread NFL picks.
Chicago @ Green Bay (-5.5) - I like Green Bay to win, but all the trends and simulations favor Chicago to cover the 5 points. Pick: Packers
Cleveland @ Cincinatti (-7) -This is a tough one. Bengals should win, but the trends are somewhat split on whether Cleveland can cover. Can't say as though I have much confidence in the Browns though. Pick: Bengals
Minnesota @ Indianapolis (+1) - Always tough when you see two bad teams playing each other because anything could happen. Its also rough because we have two dome teams so a lot of the trends are mitigated. Simulations & trends slightly favor the Vikings. Pick: Vikings
Oakland @ Miami (+1) - Like above, another razor close game according to the Accuscore simulator. After 10,000 simulations, it has Oakland winning by an average of 1.8 points. Pick: Raiders
Arizona @ New England (-13.5) - The Patriots will obviously win this game, but going against the spread is very tricky. It's a huge number and in fact, only 2 games in recent years have ever even had this line. That said, the favorite covered both times. Pick: Patriots
Baltimore @ Philadelphia (-1) - The one we've all be waiting for. Surprisingly, things really favor the Eagles here. 10,000 simulations have the Eagles winning by an average of 3 points. Also, the home team has covered nearly 60% of the time in this situation. Pick: Eagles
New Orleans @ Carolina (+1) - After unimpressive starts by both teams, this is a tricky game on its face. However, according to the trends its really not. Teams like the Saints have covered 80% of the team in games like this. Pick: Saints
Houston @ Jacksonville (+7.5) - Houston should win this game, but anytime you see a home team as a more than touchdown dog should be a rise for concern. Against a similar spread, teams like the Jags have covered almost 80% of the time here. Pick: Jaguars
Dallas @ Seattle (+3) - Same line as above, but this one seems a bit less tricky. The simulator does like Dallas to win, but all the trends points to a Seattle cover.
Tennessee @ San Diego (-6) - This is a very tricky line as the trends are split right down the middle. But if we use the simulator as a tiebreak, look for Tennessee to cover. Pick: Titans
Detroit @ San Francisco (-7) - We've got a classic high powered offense vs a great defense, but all the trends and simulations say go with the defense. Pick: 49ers
Denver @ Atlanta (-3) - I was very surprised by what the trends had to say here, because my initial instincts pointed to an Atlanta win. However, the trends strongly favor Denver to cover. In fact, in 21 recent games with this spread, the road team has covered 70% of the time. Pick: Denver