Joyner: Vick's Luck Due To Turn This Year

May 22, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Michael Vick (7) is interviewed after practice during organized team activities at the Philadelphia Eagles NovaCare Complex. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

In his most recent piece for ESPN, our old pal KC Joyner proclaimed the Eagles as the favorites to win the NFC East this year. It's notable for him, because he was one of the few dissenters last season when everyone was declaring the Eagles the team to beat.

Of the factors he cites, which we'll talk more about later, the one that jumped out at me was Michael Vick's "luck"

The aforementioned article touting the Giants as 2011 NFC East favorites detailed how Vick was due for a drop-off, in part because he was one of the most fortunate passers in the league in 2010.

This fall, the tables are completely turned. Vick still had a penchant for risk-taking last season (3.4 percent bad decision rate (BDR), ranked 26th), but he also had a lot of unlucky breaks, as 48.3 percent of the possible interception chances he had were turned into picks by the opposing team. If Vick gets back to a standard level of fortune (which is roughly 40 percent of potential picks turning into interceptions) and improves his BDR by a slight amount, he could remove at least three to five turnovers from his 2011 statistical résumé.

Turnovers were the issue for the Eagles offense last season. They explained the inconsistency from quarter to quarter, the red zone issues... almost everything. So limiting them will be key. Joyner's argument here is that while they still need to get better overall, they should also benefit from a little regression to the mean.

Last season, I felt like a lot Vick's early turnovers were due to bad luck. Jason Avant getting a ball taken out of his hands, Steve Smith smacking a ball up into the air to be picked... Those kinds of things are not indicative of poor decisions on the QBs part. However, I thought more of the later season turnovers were not so much due to luck.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Bleeding Green Nation

You must be a member of Bleeding Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bleeding Green Nation. You should read them.

Join Bleeding Green Nation

You must be a member of Bleeding Green Nation to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Bleeding Green Nation. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker