NFL Draft 2012: Are Starting LBs Found In The First Round?
by JasonB on Feb 20, 2012 12:01 PM EST
in Philadelphia Eagles News
Email
PrintI found some interesting research from Draftmetrics that may make you think twice about the need for the Eagles to pick a LB in the first round of this years' draft. The site broke down the percentage of starts made by every player according to the round they were drafted in. Here's what they found about linebackers.
There has been a recent trend for an increasing percentage of starts by undrafted free agents, 12% in 2005 and 2006 increasing to 18% in 2011. This was preceded by a big drop from a peak of 27% in 1995 to 11% in 20003
Linebackers join offensive linemen and tight ends in the fewest starts from first and second round picks. The percentage of starts from third and fourth round picks has been on a decline. Over 30% from 1992 through 2007, then dropped off to a low of 19% in 2010
They found that over the last 10 years, only 23% of the starts at LB were made by first round picks. Undrafted free agents actually made 14% of the starts. The draft is still all about individual player evaluation, so I don't think this research would discourage a team from taking a LB in the first round, but it does show that relative to other positions, starting LBs really can be found later.
Of course, this does beg the question, if LBs appear to be so abundant in the later rounds... Why have the Eagles not hit on at least one with all the picks they've made? For the full research report check out this PDF.
53 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Because it isn’t measuring if they’re good or not just if they’re starting. So the Eagles fill this stat quite nicely even though all of our linebackers blow.
Last name Ever
First name Greatest
#PayDeSeanJackson
I was going to say the same thing
according to this, Chaney, Fokou, Matthews, and Rolle are all “starters” found in the 4th or later
"EFF YOU, WE'RE WINNING ANYWAY!!!!!!" (Bye, Dawk)
Um, these stats are very skewed
23% by first rounders. Then the next question would be what % of the league are first round picks? It happens to be about 13% are first rounders. With that being said first round linebackers are actually far above the average on snaps.
You must take all percentages into account and 23% is actually pretty solid.
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
by the-vet on Feb 20, 2012 12:16 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
That's wrong
They are well below the average. Only offensive lineman have a lower percentage of a first round picks starting.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
So the stats aren’t “skewed” at all. They are what they are… but what they actually mean is up for interpretation.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
i get what the-vet is saying. 23% is a good number. there is only a certain percentage of linebackers in the league (evidently 13%) that were taken in the first round so they can only accumulate a certain percentage of starts. what i take from this stat is that the mid and late round linebackers are being outplayed by UFA’s
I wonder what’s the average draft position of LBs in the first round in the last 10 years? I’d be willing to bet that the positions with the lowest percentage of starters are also the ones picked latest in the first.
I'll give you a cookie if you know what my pic is from.
also a good point
Lets look at it this way. Let’s say drafting a kicker in the first round(Sebastian Janikowski) has 100% success rate over the last 15 years. Does that make it safe for me to draft a kicker in the first round? No.
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
Sorry Jason, I would disagree with you...
You have to look at everything. Is it fair to put up numbers for linebackers against lets say WR’s/DE’s vs Running backs or SS/FS for first round snaps? No it isn’t due to the fact that there is a larger sample size of WR’s/DE’s drafted in the first round of the draft usually. This year you may have 1 or 2 running backs vs 5 WR’s in the first round. If those RB’s fail or succeed how is that fair?? I understand where you were going with this, but lets be honest there are way to many variables for you to consider it risky based off the numbers. Team needs, league trends, draft quality all have a play in this as well. So please don’t get all but hurt and say something is wrong. How can you argue that 13% of the league are first round picks and 23% take snaps. ITS A GAMBLE BUDDY.
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
I don’t really know what you are disagreeing with. I simply laid out the facts.
And never did I say that they meant you shouldn’t draft a LB in the first. In fact I said the opposite.
The draft is still all about individual player evaluation, so I don’t think this research would discourage a team from taking a LB in the first round, but it does show that relative to other positions, starting LBs really can be found later
So what are you disagreeing with?
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
Stats are facts?
That’s a new one by me.
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
Yes, they are. They really are.
How you interpret them can differ.
And again, I still fail to see what you’re actually disagreeing with.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
Wow, really
Ray Lewis , Patrick Willis, clay Mathews , brian Cushing , all first rounders.
First round lb’ers are one of the safest picks you can make. Aaron Curry is the exception that proves the rule.
by Saidrick on Feb 20, 2012 12:48 PM EST via mobile reply actions
You just named 4 guys to refute 10 years worth of data.
This isn’t an opinion here. This is a fact.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
I think people mistake starter for pro bowler.
The best chance to find a pro bowler at any position is still the 1st round. So if the Eagles want a pro bowler they should go for the LB in the first round, but if they just want a solid starter, they can keep taking LBs in the later rounds.
by Anders Jensen on Feb 20, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I need to explain myself better. I am naming guys that you want to start for more than one game or one season. This break down only counts whether or not they started at least one game. I think this articule should have been titled " if you want a linebacker for only a season, you can draft anywhere you want. "
As for my exception logic: rules are not absolutes, therefore if you can find an exception to the rule you can call it a rule since it is no longer an unrealistic absolute.
So since I found four good 1st round lb’ers and 1 bad. I challenge you to find some more round one lb busts.
by Saidrick on Feb 20, 2012 7:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It’s number of starts. So a guy who started one game would have virtually no affect on the 10 year total.
And again, this isn’t about busts vs good LBs. I’m sure there’s tons of both. It’s simply about where these starters are found. And more than nearly any other position, for LB it hasn’t been in the first.
That doesn’t mean you should take LBs in the first round (as I said), but it’s interesting.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
God, I hate that phrase. People use it to say that any sort of exception somehow proves the rule, which isn’t what it means at all.
I'll give you a cookie if you know what my pic is from.
I dont know where that phrase comes from, because in science you hate out liers as you need to explain em, where data there fits the “rule” requires no future explanation.
by Anders Jensen on Feb 21, 2012 7:01 AM EST up reply actions
Wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that linebackers are paid less than dline and even the 2nry now.
Can’t pay everyone. The Dline is the most important part of the defense, so they get paid. And shut down corners / top flight safeties get paid. Linebackers must be uber exceptional.
I’d say the same for TE. Other skill positions are generally a priority.
I would like to thank my hands for being so great, for allowing me to type this post.
by corn on the kolb on Feb 20, 2012 1:02 PM EST via mobile reply actions
These numbers are kind of useless. They just hold up what you would expect to see based on the way that teams draft. Positions that are drafted most frequently in the first get a bump in their percentage. The positions that require multiple starters take a dip in percentage.
Examples
QBs tend be drafted heavily in the first and require only one starter per team, so there are a high percentage of first round starters.
OL are pretty heavily drafted in the first, but each team needs 5 OL as starters, so their percentage trends downward.
AR should have to wear a Flava Flav necklace until he learns how to manage a clock.
I am the proud target of temper tantrums.
exactly
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
This doesn't judge quality of the start at all
Just because the Eagles threw Fokou and Chaney onto the field as late rounders, they are given the same “starting” status and James Harrison and Patrick Willis…
This really article means nothing to me
"EFF YOU, WE'RE WINNING ANYWAY!!!!!!" (Bye, Dawk)
by jalarsen1 on Feb 20, 2012 1:48 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
No, they aren’t… because neither of those guys have started as many games.
And by the way… James Harrison was undrafted free agent. Did you know that? So really, it’s Harrison, far more than Fokou or Chaney, who were both drafted, that’s making the numbers what they are.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
Found it.
http://www.mockingthedraft.com/2011/12/27/2664905/2012-pro-bowl-rosters-and-the-nfl-draft
"Learning to eat soup with a knife"
I like this part
All four inside linebackers who made the Pro Bowl were first-round picks.
It's never easy being an Eagle fan........but I'll be damned if I ever stop !
We don't need the best players at every position,
we need players that play their best , at every position.
How does this show we shouldn't draft a linebacker early in the draft?
Do these stats group Defensive Backs or Linemen as a whole for this analysis. Linebacker, if grouped as a whole, starts 3 players. So it would make sense that less starts would come from 1st round picks. And given how the league has moved towards more passing, teams priorities have shifted. This doesn’t change the fact that our Linebackers are terrible and as a team we could hugely benefit from some top of the line talent at the position.
Click the link maybe?
AR should have to wear a Flava Flav necklace until he learns how to manage a clock.
I am the proud target of temper tantrums.
Ha, yeah, yeah. I’ve been looking through it. Still don’t think this data should have any bearing on our draft. Though I’m sure Andy and Co. will use any data they can to justify whatever it is they already want to do.
“How does this show we shouldn’t draft a linebacker early in the draft?”
It doesn’t. That wasn’t really the point.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
“I found some interesting research from Draftmetrics that may make you think twice about the need for the Eagles to pick a LB in the first round of this years’ draft.”
Did I misunderstand this then?
You must have.
Because you seem to be under the impression that this means the Eagles shouldn’t draft one, when clearly that was never what I said. In fact, I said quite the opposite.
The draft is still all about individual player evaluation, so I don’t think this research would discourage a team from taking a LB in the first round, but it does show that relative to other positions, starting LBs really can be found later.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
My bad man. I didn’t really mean to start something my first time posting over here. I think I’m just a bit on edge about the draft because they’ve got some pretty obvious needs that I have little faith that they’ll address.
No problem… At this point we should remember that until free agency happens, we won’t totally know what the needs are in the draft.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
I’m surprised AR hasn’t single-handedly made d-line the least % of starts in the first two rounds.
Prediction: the 3-4 will be out of style in two years.
So no, I will not shut up about stupidity.
by bdawk4ever on Dec 11, 2011 1:39 PM EST
you know D-line is that position AR have taken the most in the first round right?
by Anders Jensen on Feb 21, 2012 7:02 AM EST up reply actions
Ah, but herein lies the rub...
it does show that relative to other positions, starting LBs really can be found later.
Yes, that’s not up for debate. but what really want to know comparative the quality of players taken in each round. This data is showing you is the breakdown of where each of the starting players were taken in the draft… but, in order for it to be really useful, you need to then compare it to the breakdown of the number of players in each position for each round, because it’s not evenly distributed; if a higher percentage of QBs and DEs get taken in higher rounds than the percentage of LBs taken (and I’d be willing to bet that they are) than we need to rethink how to interpret the data.
For example: in 2010, 58 DLs were drafted,and 26 LBs were taken. 8 DEs (14%) and 2 LBs (8%) were taken in the first round. This is a tiny, tiny sample size, but if it were consistent for each year (someone, feel free to go do this), this actually means that there is a higher chance of an LB taken in the first round being a starter than a DL taken in the first round.
realized I probably didn’t go through my thinking well enough. compare the fact that 8% of LBs are taken in the first round with the fact that 24% of LB starters were 1st rounders. Then, for DLs, 14% are taken 1st round and 33% of starters were 1st rounders. 8% making up a final 24% is a bigger difference than 14% making up 33%, so more DLs taken in the first round end up not being starters.
Just something to think about. I think we’d all agree that there will be starting-quality LB’s available after the first round. I just think that if we are in a position to take a LB, it makes sense to reach up and get one.
let me repeat
All four inside linebackers who made the Pro Bowl were first-round picks.
starters can be found later , yes , but pro bowl quality are found where ?
It's never easy being an Eagle fan........but I'll be damned if I ever stop !
We don't need the best players at every position,
we need players that play their best , at every position.
by JJeaglerooter on Feb 20, 2012 7:06 PM EST up reply actions
well yes, but again, no one is arguing that point… the vast majority of pro-bowl caliber players at every position come from early rounds. The key point I’m trying to make isn’t that round 1 players will be better, but rather that the idea that “we can wait on LB and focus on other positions, since LBs will be around later” isn’t correct, at least for this one instance.
and yet the position we need upgraded the most is...................
Linebacker ………..thank you.
It's never easy being an Eagle fan........but I'll be damned if I ever stop !
We don't need the best players at every position,
we need players that play their best , at every position.
by JJeaglerooter on Feb 20, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
F the stats, the risk is worth it. TAKE A LB or philly fans shall go ape shit.
Be heard and Sign the Fire Andy/Juan petition Fire Andy Reid and Juan Castillo Petition | GoPetition
Do they care if Philly fans go ape shit? Pretty sure they know they’ve got us by the balls. Season tickets have a huge waiting list. Everyone still watches every sunday.
They shouldn't care
If indeed they think they’re doing the right thing. Their #1 job is to win, not to give us the pick we want.
Really it’s the ring we want more than anything.
Follow Bleeding Green Nation on Twitter & Facebook.
Disagree somewhat.
For sure management should never subject itself to the whims of its fanbase, but I think the failure of the Eagles management is trusting their beliefs too much, even in the face of what is often mounting evidence against them. IMO the problem is that they ALWAYS trust that they’re doing the right thing.
Actually ...I will hang my head in shame..
but if they pass on the second pic , my foot will need extricated from the tv set.
It's never easy being an Eagle fan........but I'll be damned if I ever stop !
We don't need the best players at every position,
we need players that play their best , at every position.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Shutdown Corner - NFL - Yahoo! Sports
- Former high-school star Brian Banks does serious time on trumped-up charge, now hopes for an NFL shot
- Former ‘idiot kicker’ Mike Vanderjagt in trouble after accosting junior-high heckler
- Adrian Peterson blows teammates away in footraces; appears to be on the mend
- UPDATE: Charlie Sheen didn’t buy Lawrence Taylor’s Super Bowl ring
- Alex Smith gets blown up by Jon Beason over Cam Newton comments
