"The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl by at least three points even though the New York Giants have the appeal of "a cocktail party stock," according to a quantitative money management firm that’s correctly picked the team covering the point spread for eight consecutive years."
"The Giants have the higher alpha this year," Robinson said. "Teams that have outperformed expectations during the regular season tend to underperform in the playoffs."
In each of the past eight Super Bowls, the team that outperformed expectations by the greater degree during the regular season, if favored, failed to cover the point spread or was upset. In three games, including last year’s 31-25 Super Bowl victory by Green Bay against Pittsburgh, the team with the lower regular-season alpha was favored and covered the spread.